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Moderate Snow Potential 4/4


ORH_wxman

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Thanks, hopefully we keep the overcast and the temp down. Even sniffing 30 will probably melt this.

Are we eyeing the precip between buffalo and Binghamton for later?

The stuff for later this afternoon is more like over central/west PA. The stuff over NY State is going to try and form a band or two for central and northern areas (like pike to S VT/S NH) over the next 4-5 hours or so. The stronger lift then shifts further south.

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I think HRRR has precip placement a tad too far south. Matching up radar to forecast radar. I think cold air will still sink farther south but highest totals will be a smidge north. We'll see if that jump south is a trend or if it reverts back in the next couple runs. 

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i-90 south is going to suffer thru an excruciating next couple of hours of little to nothing going on, before it shifts south after lunch time

HRRR has been playing a little catchup with that dry slot. Previous runs were filling that in a lot quicker. Looks like there's sleety echoes even up near BGM.

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Thinking something like this. A band from the ocean westward into northern PLY county will prob set up, and maybe in northern RI. A bit of a weak spot for the CT River, snow a little farther south and southeast than earlier but not sure if that 4-6+ is gonna make it all the way to the Upper Cape like latest HRRR showing.

 

post-6270-0-99301900-1459776060_thumb.jp

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Thinking something like this. A band from the ocean westward into northern PLY county will prob set up, and maybe in northern RI. A bit of a weak spot for the CT River, snow a little farther south and southeast than earlier but not sure if that 4-6+ is gonna make it all the way to the Upper Cape like latest HRRR showing.

 

attachicon.gif4 3 16 snow 2.jpg

Reasonable idea.  I've liked the area just to my N since Saturday as the area for highest totals.

I do think the HRRR is too far S.

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I think snow will be a bit more uniform north, and semi-convective south of the Pike, leading to a bit more sporadic accumulations like we saw yesterday. HIRES models showing some nice base reflectivity coming in with the second batch. 

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I don't think will be as filled in later on as it's showing. This is just going from obs in past events. It rarely fills out with no dry spots in Southeast NE. (regarding HRRR ref someone posted)

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