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April 2016 discussion/obs


WeatherFeen2000

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Cold April 1-10 for NYC at -3.9. This was the first month in NYC since June 2015 where

the first 10 days started out this below normal. This was the coldest start to April since

2007 which was -6.7 through the 10th.

 

Models now starting to show the potential for 70 degree days to return around the 17th to 18th.

But there will also be several days before then with a cool onshore flow.

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Cold April 1-10 for NYC at -3.9. This was the first month in NYC since June 2015 where

the first 10 days started out this below normal. This was the coldest start to April since

2007 which was -6.7 through the 10th.

 

Models now starting to show the potential for 70 degree days to return around the 17th to 18th.

But there will also be several days before then with a cool onshore flow.

By the 15th, the anomaly will probably be in the -3.5° +/- 0.5° vicinity, assuming the MOS is reasonably accurate. Right now, even as I still think the month will wind up somewhat warmer than normal, the odds are tilted toward a below normal outcome. A lot will depend on how warm the second half winds up, and it does look quite a bit warmer relative to normal than it has been so far.

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if it happens. this weekend was originally looking cool and drizzly

 

The block over the Great Lakes got strong enough to boot the closed low further east.

Not a big fan of the Euro post 120 hr precip forecasts recently that seem to dry out

the closer that we get.

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