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Model Mezzanine - April(Fools) General Model Discussion

FXWX

By FXWX,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

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This pattern in January would eventually have sent a big storm our way.  This month it's merely extending mud season and delaying green-up.  A few of us NNE cynics were predicting this sort of lose-lose scenario back around Groundhog Day. (No science involved, just a feeling of doom.)

 

Yes, this

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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This pattern in January would eventually have sent a big storm our way.  This month it's merely extending mud season and delaying green-up.  A few of us NNE cynics were predicting this sort of lose-lose scenario back around Groundhog Day. (No science involved, just a feeling of doom.)

 

probably not - no.  

 

folks are either: ...not getting this, ignoring it, or haven't seen it ... but, we've been talking about it since about January 1, and that is wave spacing issues plaguing the entire winter.   

 

nothing's really changed, and whether the pattern matches exactly what it looked like during x,y,z week ago is irrelevant really - the destructive wave interference that is going on now, was not only going on in January, but shows that it doesn't matter what time of the year it is... the atmosphere is just been in a discordant frenzy of non-phased events.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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probably not - no.  

 

folks are either: ...not getting this, ignoring it, or haven't seen it ... but, we've been talking about it since about January 1, and that is wave spacing issues plaguing the entire winter.   

 

nothing's really changed, and whether the pattern matches exactly what it looked like during x,y,z week ago is irrelevant really - the destructive wave interference that is going on now, was not only going on in January, but shows that it doesn't matter what time of the year it is... the atmosphere is just been in a discordant frenzy of non-phased events.

which waves  deconstructed the Blizzard in Jan? Phased events are rare, we had a major phased event hit in Jan, just missed 3 others.  Several phased events were rainers I think destructive waves are the norm in any year. Trough position has screwed us. 

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FXWX

FXWX

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probably not - no.  

 

folks are either: ...not getting this, ignoring it, or haven't seen it ... but, we've been talking about it since about January 1, and that is wave spacing issues plaguing the entire winter.   

 

nothing's really changed, and whether the pattern matches exactly what it looked like during x,y,z week ago is irrelevant really - the destructive wave interference that is going on now, was not only going on in January, but shows that it doesn't matter what time of the year it is... the atmosphere is just been in a discordant frenzy of non-phased events.

Exactly! Ever since January there has certainly been an over abundance of short wave action that, as you stated prevented a handful of setups developing into well phased events; and when that was not the issues there was almost always a kicker short wave approaching from the northwest and keeping things too progressive. Really nothing magical about it, but it was a very persistent pattern this season.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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which waves  deconstructed the Blizzard in Jan? Phased events are rare, we had a major phased event hit in Jan, just missed 3 others.  Several phased events were rainers I think destructive waves are the norm in any year. Trough position has screwed us. 

It's never just one thing usually.  Sometimes it's wave spacing, other times it's Trough position, other times it's Confluence or lack there of.  Never just one thing and one thing only imo.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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which waves  deconstructed the Blizzard in Jan? Phased events are rare, we had a major phased event hit in Jan, just missed 3 others.  Several phased events were rainers I think destructive waves are the norm in any year. Trough position has screwed us. 

 

Trough position and wave spacing are the same thing...  really. But in a more detailed sense, destructive interference is empirically measurable as a deterrent this year as the primary obstacle to cyclogenesis.   

 

That Jan MA system was a non-N stream system entirely.  It was really very fortunate timing for that, because the N stream dumped a ton of cold air into the lower troposphere of the OV/MA areas, then it abandoned.  The S stream was well timed up underneath...

 

that was also discussed at great detail and explanatory back then too -  that's why the system maxed out before it even left the coast... The trough was filling so rapidly it lost some 3 contours of depth by the time it got to NS for a reason.  No n-stream involvement. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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Trough position and wave spacing are the same thing...  really. But in a more detailed sense, destructive interference is empirically measurable as a deterrent this year as the primary obstacle to cyclogenesis.   

 

That Jan MA system was a non-N stream system entirely.  It was really very fortunate timing for that, because the N stream dumped a ton of cold air into the lower troposphere of the OV/MA areas, then it abandoned.  The S stream was well timed up underneath...

 

that was also discussed at great detail and explanatory back then too -  that's why the system maxed out before it even left the coast... The trough was filling so rapidly it lost some 3 contours of depth by the time it got to NS for a reason.  No n-stream involvement. 

 

Ok, So what is the cause of the underlying persistence of deconstructive wave interference this year vs others? And what signs could we look at in hindsight that were telling us this was a possibility? Both serious questions.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Ok, So what is the cause of the underlying persistence of deconstructive wave interference this year vs others? And what signs could we look at in hindsight that were telling us this was a possibility? Both serious questions.

 

Well... firstly, excellent question!

 

secondly, I'd love to hear other's suppositions ...my own hypothesis has to do with the warm El Nino lurking underneath a northern Pacific latitude that is entering a multi-decade tendency for "buckled" flow tendencies.  

 

That's sort of two conflicting signals... one of course being a boiling cauldron, the other is a cold/-EPO  ... the simplified version is there are "too many" disturbance in an atmosphere, quite possibly existing in space and time because having said large scale teleconnectors in play creates for lack of better phrase, "too much" potential.  

 

It's interesting ... I was once discussing  winters going back in lore with a college Prof (back when the dinosaurs roamed...) and according to his findings, the best winters for us are actually closer to neutral ENSO - a facet/talking point I've never really brought up here for fear of the tsunamis of 'how dare you' that would have been as inevitable as an over-sold El Nino ( :) ) is every autumn one is in play

 

J/k, but...seriously, his findings were fascinating and frankly ...just my experience in life really, has shown me that as more and more frustrating seasons are tabulated along the curve of life's winters, the bigger winters tend to be within @ or puking distance of +1 or -1 Pacific SSTs.  ...and, of course, this is obviously obfuscated further by the fact that the SSTs of the N Pacific also play a role... yeesh.

 

Anyway, it probably sounds a lot better on paper to drill a +3 SD warm ENSO up underneath buckling at mid and high latitudes of the hemisphere, than it actually 'can' in reality.  

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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Ok, So what is the cause of the underlying persistence of deconstructive wave interference this year vs others? And what signs could we look at in hindsight that were telling us this was a possibility? Both serious questions.

Too many shortwaves in the flow perhaps?  SW's were everywhere it seemed all lined up fighting with each other it seemed.  Is that to simple an explanation lol??  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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TO be honest given that even though both models are all snow, the April Sun angle will destroy any possibility at accumulation so it might as well rain.

 

even in NYC ...where these FOUS numbers have nearly 1" liq equiv falling as snow, the T1 is +2... that's pretty classic moderate car-top spring blue that has trouble accumulating on anything darker than the color of snow its self.  

 

having said that, it can accumulate ... but like April 4's ordeal demoed, the sky can't be that 'bright snowing' look either. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Well... firstly, excellent question!

 

secondly, I'd love to hear other's suppositions ...my own hypothesis has to do with the warm El Nino lurking underneath a northern Pacific latitude that is entering a multi-decade tendency for "buckled" flow tendencies.  

 

That's sort of two conflicting signals... one of course being a boiling cauldron, the other is a cold/-EPO  ... the simplified version is there are "too many" disturbance in an atmosphere, quite possibly existing in space and time because having said large scale teleconnectors in play creates for lack of better phrase, "too much" potential.  

 

It's interesting ... I was once discussing  winters going back in lore with a college Prof (back when the dinosaurs roamed...) and according to his findings, the best winters for us are actually closer to neutral ENSO - a facet/talking point I've never really brought up here for fear of the tsunamis of 'how dare you' that would have been as inevitable as an over-sold El Nino ( :) ) is every autumn one is in play

 

J/k, but...seriously, his findings were fascinating and frankly ...just my experience in life really, has shown me that as more and more frustrating seasons are tabulated along the curve of life's winters, the bigger winters tend to be within @ or puking distance of +1 or -1 Pacific SSTs.  ...and, of course, this is obviously obfuscated further by the fact that the SSTs of the N Pacific also play a role... yeesh.

 

Anyway, it probably sounds a lot better on paper to drill a +3 SD warm ENSO up underneath buckling at mid and high latitudes of the hemisphere, than it actually 'can' in reality.  

 

Our empirical results in SNE definitely seem to favor weak El Nino as the best combination for prolific snowfall.

 

I've always thought in my own mind the reason for this was the northern stream being dominant along with the propensity for +PNA and a hint of a STJ served us very well. Whether that is the main reason or not, the empirical evidence still stands for weak +ENSO events. So the "closer to neutral" idea probably is true, though I haven't seen a defined signal for weak La Nina or dead neutral winters...they tend to be a solid mixed bag...but once you throw weak +ENSO in there, then the neutral/weak group as a whole looks pretty decent.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Our empirical results in SNE definitely seem to favor weak El Nino as the best combination for prolific snowfall.

 

I've always thought in my own mind the reason for this was the northern stream being dominant along with the propensity for +PNA and a hint of a STJ served us very well. Whether that is the main reason or not, the empirical evidence still stands for weak +ENSO events. So the "closer to neutral" idea probably is true, though I haven't seen a defined signal for weak La Nina or dead neutral winters...they tend to be a solid mixed bag...but once you throw weak +ENSO in there, then the neutral/weak group as a whole looks pretty decent.

 

Wasn't last year still at least a winter that begin with some vestigial -ENSO ?   

 

of course, HUGE caveat for me is that I have always hated the way last winter snowed 300 % here, but not in ALB - different argument. 

 

anyway, yeah I like ur weak Nino paraphrase, too.  Fwiw - Harvey likes that one.  It certainly fit for two high rankers: '78 and '96 .. (or was 1995-1996 slightly negative - can't recall), but just conceptually that's sound reasoning for me.  And, I'm not sure either on Nina aspect - but I think sufficed it is to say, system unrest, in general, is playing with a loaded gun that seems like a lot of fun until it blows backs of winter heads off more than gives them life sometimes. 

 

interesting - 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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yeah, it's certainly the time of the year for climo cut offs...  Those two models, the GGEM and Euro, that/this could also just merely be playing into their respective (alike) biases to 'dig too much' in their extended ranges, too. 

 

guess we won't know until we get closer in. 

 

i'll tell you though, if things break better (like, that cut -off drifts more out into the Atlantic and allows some of that midland OV ridge to spill over), that correction would connote a string of top 10 days. 

 

in fact, the 12z GFS doens't drop the thickness to 540 again after D6.5....  D9 could well be close to 80!

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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50s-low 60s it seems in valley.

Warmest Friday. But at least 50s other days.

 

getting toward the time+ of the year where an 850 temperature medium at +5C, under synoptic layouts like the Euro's 04/17 appeal, would provide your "napril" thing - I think...tho I'm not sure entirely what qualifies there...

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