ILSNOW Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 from chicago nws SOUTHWEST SYSTEMS SUCH AS THE ONE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK TEND TOBE MOISTURE LADEN...AND WITH THIS ONE LOOKING TO BE ABLE TO TAPINTO GULF MOISTURE...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS SYSTEM ASWELL. GIVEN THE CURRENT ADVERTISED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THISCOULD PLACE THE CHICAGO REGION IN THE FAVORABLE REGION FOR HEAVYSNOWFALL...AND POTENTIAL VERY STRONG WINDS AS WELL GIVEN APOTENTIAL SUB 990 MB LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THIS WERE TO ALLCOME TOGETHER...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVY SNOW INCOMBINATION WITH HIGH WINDS AND HENCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOWAND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ONWEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE PRESENT TIME I HAVE REMAINEDFAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERINGPORTIONS OF MY SOUTHEAST COULD HAVE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES ONWEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP CONSIDERABLY IFTHE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS MORE NORTHWEST TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 crud. I was hoping to escape this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 i can think of at least two majors that trended well NW inside this rangeYou definitely have a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Seems pretty tough unless you're the GHD storm to get a ejecting storm to where this one is to really hit Wisc much.. Like more of the pan handle ejectors that give us the token 6-10 swath of snow up here.. These that eject farther east like this one would seem to have more chance of nuking like GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Still thinking we'll see a slight bump southeast from where we stand right now. Trend this winter has been consistent if nothing else. Probably weaker too. this doesn't match any storm we've had this winter, so trying to extrapolate trends with this monster based on what's happened with all the previous weak sauce junk systems isn't going to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 from chicago nws SOUTHWEST SYSTEMS SUCH AS THE ONE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK TEND TO BE MOISTURE LADEN...AND WITH THIS ONE LOOKING TO BE ABLE TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE...THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. GIVEN THE CURRENT ADVERTISED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THIS COULD PLACE THE CHICAGO REGION IN THE FAVORABLE REGION FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL...AND POTENTIAL VERY STRONG WINDS AS WELL GIVEN A POTENTIAL SUB 990 MB LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. IF THIS WERE TO ALL COME TOGETHER...THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME HEAVY SNOW IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH WINDS AND HENCE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE PRESENT TIME I HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE ON SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING PORTIONS OF MY SOUTHEAST COULD HAVE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES ON WEDNESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP CONSIDERABLY IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS MORE NORTHWEST TRACK. lol. EDIT: Pretty bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 this doesn't match any storm we've had this winter, so trying to extrapolate trends with this monster based on what's happened with all the previous weak sauce junk systems isn't going to work. True. But he does have a point, and it is a possibility to keep in mind. Even 12/28/15, which was also a deep southern stream cutoff low, came SE within the final 48 hours or so. Originally, the storm was expected to track over MKE, and it ended up tracking over Gary, IN instead (while MKE was mostly all snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Seems pretty tough unless you're the GHD storm to get a ejecting storm to where this one is to really hit Wisc much.. See my above post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 this doesn't match any storm we've had this winter, so trying to extrapolate trends with this monster based on what's happened with all the previous weak sauce junk systems isn't going to work. East coast blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Either way the winds should be ripping pretty good for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Powerball giving an lol to one of the better winter mets at LOT is an ol in its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Powerball giving an lol to one of the better winter mets at LOT is an ol in its own. Yeah I didn't understand that one. There's clearly potential for near blizzard if not outright blizzard conditions if something like the current runs ends up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Powerball giving an lol to one of the better winter mets at LOT is an ol in its own. Not so much a "lol" as far as the potential he laid out, but the fact that he went full throttle in laying out the potential in his AFD despite the fact that were still several days out. It's pretty bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The problem is we could see a good shift either way which would chance things up. I like the 6 inches I have modeled right now but I'm hoping it goes southeast and stays as strong somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 True. But he does have a point, and it is a possibility to keep in mind. Even 12/28/15, which was also a deep southern stream cutoff low, came SE within the final 48 hours or so. Originally, the storm was expected to track over MKE, and it ended up tracking over Gary, IN instead (while MKE was mostly all snow). MKE rode the warmest models and were calling for a change to rain by early afternoon. Reality was it never really did, except some drizzle and fog as the low passed to the southeast late that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 East coast blizzard? lol no.... actually what angry said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Kuchera vs. 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The thermals do scare me a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I like the 6 inches I have modeled right now but I'm hoping it goes southeast and stays as strong somehow That's still a possibility (see the 00z GFS and EURO run from 2/20/16), but the probability of it happening versus the other solutions is likely pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Potential is there for sure in Chicago and pretty much why I'm still in tracking it. Id have laid the potential out there to on a Sunday evening to you know let the media blow it up lol.. Plus it's kinda refreshing to read some one laying it out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Another interesting (but not perfect) analog is Feb 24-25 1965, when a 500mb trough in Texas spun up a low to about 980mb in Ohio, and a heavy snowstorm hit IN/IL/MI http://greatlakes.salsite.com/maps/1965_feb_24_12z_500_vort.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 lol no.... actually what angry said. The east coast blizzard does compare to this and it ended up a little southeast of guidance so you can use that trend in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Not sure where the SE shift talk is coming from. Most of the Midwest storms have been modeled pretty well (within 50 miles) 3 days out. If anything, storms have shifted slightly NW at the time of the event. See this years GHD storm thread - it's well documented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Even with such a deep storm, one thing going against widespread blizzard potential are the marginal near sfc temps (except possibly at the tail end). Means that heavy snowfall rates will be more important than usual to fulfill the visibility requirement as you can't rely on the snow blowing around as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Glad I don't have to worry about thermals anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The east coast blizzard does compare to this and it ended up a little southeast of guidance so you can use that trend in this case. It did? I seem to remember it creeping north, especially among the non-NAM models which were too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The east coast blizzard does compare to this and it ended up a little southeast of guidance so you can use that trend in this case. Doesn't compare at all This is chump change compared to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 It did? I seem to remember it creeping north, especially among the non-NAM models which were too far south. Models were trying to give me a couple inches the day before and stayed to far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Euro by far is the coldest solution for NE IL/SE WI. Showing 2"+/hour rates around 87 hours. Temps below freezing and winds howling out of the N/NNE at 30-35 mph near the lake. FWIW - which is very little. The DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.