mitchnick Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The Ukie showed pretty much the same thing as the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Quite the deluge 12 -18z Tuesday along 95. Woah. yeah, nice inch of rain on that panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Quite the deluge 12 -18z Tuesday along 95. Woah. Almost right up the spine of the Apps on the hi res maps. Heh. I thought it would have come more east by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 yeah, nice inch of rain on that panel. I'm sure the panels are overdone but some rippin gusts out of the south as well. Next couple days aren't boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Snowmaps are a lil too snowy IMO esp around here given when the change is expected but it's still a good 2-4" areawide. Maybe high end of that. Yeah. I think full soundings are like 1 million dollars so nobody has them. Not sure about the SV/weatherbell algorithm but we probably mix before the implied 5-6pm flip even taking the model verbatim. Some warm layer somewhere. I doubt 850 is 1st level to flip though I don't think we change over much before based on soundings we do have on other models. Regardless of models if I am making a forecast for DC I am probably mentioning the chance of mixing early afternoon. Models are pretty good with changeover times though. With so much moisture coming in close to flip time it is risky going too high on snow. 2-4" seems a reasonable forecast if I had to choose between 1-3" or 2-4". I'll probably go 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 A westerly track with a good thump. Makes sense. It's usually either/or west or east. That's a pretty climo favored track. I mentioned the other day how west can be good for us in terms of thump even though s changeover is usually inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Yeah. I think full soundings are like 1 million dollars so nobody has them. Not sure about the SV/weatherbell algorithm but we probably mix before the implied 5-6pm flip even taking the model verbatim. Some warm layer somewhere. I doubt 850 is 1st level to flip though I don't think we change over much before based on soundings we do have on other models. Regardless of models if I am making a forecast for DC I am probably mentioning the chance of mixing early afternoon. Models are pretty good with changeover times though. With so much moisture coming in close to flip time it is risky going too high on snow. 2-4" seems a reasonable forecast if I had to choose between 1-3" or 2-4". I'll probably go 2-3". I'll be interested to see how much we can pile up early.. probably not a ton but this has us almost 1" by 12z. The first 6 hours or so should be fairly high ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The NAM was right, once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Almost right up the spine of the Apps on the hi res maps. Heh. I thought it would have come more east by now. Me too. I can almost taste that crow. I'm going down with the ship...I still say it won't do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The NAM was right, once again where are all these terrible weenies from lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 That's fine. If we can produce like that before the flip it's a good event IMO. My bar remains 1". Since we're not sweating a flip before midday/early afternoon. And perhaps later. And because surface and the column are so cold I'd have to think 1" in the city is an 75-80% chance right now. We have a 12+ hour window. If we got like 0.75" this storm would kind of suck to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 where are all these terrible weenies from lately? The euro hasn't wavered for 3 days and 6 runs for the most part. The only change today was to bump precip on the front side. And only added .1-.2 or so. Saying the euro wasn't by far the best on this is flat out wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Me too. I can almost taste that crow. I'm going down with the ship...I still say it won't do that. I'd still kinda have to favor it coming up just east of the chain partly because you should get the baroclinic zone somewhere in there in this kind of setup but maybe not. Euro has liked mountain climbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The NAM was right, once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Epic euro run leading up to this! 4" here?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The euro hasn't wavered for 3 days and 6 runs for the most part. The only change today was to bump precip on the front side. And only added .1-.2 or so. Saying the euro wasn't by far the best on this is flat out wrong. Yes. Mostly a rock. I'd have to think that since its beefed up 2 straight runs now it's probably caught onto something rather than just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 where are all these terrible weenies from lately? just roll your eyes and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The euro hasn't wavered for 3 days and 6 runs for the most part. The only change today was to bump precip on the front side. And only added .1-.2 or so. Saying the euro wasn't by far the best on this is flat out wrong. If it plays out somewhat as shown by most models now the Euro was the lead as usual. We're into the nitty gritty at this point. Some of it is at model noise levels. The NAM was showing the cities staying near or below freezing for most of the event to start I think. Hardly a win lol. Not to mention this isn't over so no need to declare it to any model yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The euro hasn't wavered for 3 days and 6 runs for the most part. The only change today was to bump precip on the front side. And only added .1-.2 or so. Saying the euro wasn't by far the best on this is flat out wrong. Well, it's certain that it wasn't the gfs. It has shown every possible solution at some point. This hasn't happened yet, but the NAM hasn't been bad if it goes like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 "VDII", come on admin...pretty please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOAAmore Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think the run to run excitement has always been here. I know in the past I've been sometimes frustrated by it which besides writing articles no one reads but comment on anyway, I post here less than I used to. What other sites do you post on.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 If it plays out somewhat as shown by most models now the Euro was the lead as usual. We're into the nitty gritty at this point. Some of it is at model noise levels. The NAM was showing the cities staying near or below freezing for most of the event to start I think. Hardly a win lol. Not to mention this isn't over so no need to declare it to any model yet. And of course we all tend to look at our own areas. I had no idea it showed you guys staying that cold that long. If you could get the low a little more to the east you might end colder longer than what the euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 If it plays out somewhat as shown by most models now the Euro was the lead as usual. We're into the nitty gritty at this point. Some of it is at model noise levels. The NAM was showing the cities staying near or below freezing for most of the event to start I think. Hardly a win lol. Not to mention this isn't over so no need to declare it to any model yet. I haven't paid that much attention to what happens after the flip. Euro could easily be warming too quick but for you and me I doubt it makes much difference. I don't expect to be below freezing by midnight. Probably earlier. Sensible wx wise 34 or 44 doesn't matter much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Well, it's certain that it wasn't the gfs. It has shown every possible solution at some point. This hasn't happened yet, but the NAM hasn't been bad if it goes like this. It had a terrible track early on so I'd say it might have got things right if it is right for the wrong reason, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Yes. Mostly a rock. I'd have to think that since its beefed up 2 straight runs now it's probably caught onto something rather than just noise. your both right. Euro was great on the synoptic level evolution of this. The last two runs it's simply picked up on a slight uptick in qpf along that waa wave running out ahead of the main band. It's been there all along it simply juiced up by about .15 qpf. Not a big deal for a global at that range to be off by that but I guess since our area is right under it and it means 3-4" vs 1-2 some will make a bigger deal of it then it is. So maybe the nam was closer to the snow totals but got there in an all over the place and mostly wrong way. But some just look at how much snow falls in their yard and nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno 4 hours ago Euro went east last because of the sharper trof, the GFS lifts trof so the wave is farther north. its really that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It had a terrible track early on so I'd say it might have got things right if it is right for the wrong reason, Would you say this is a pretty unusual storm in general? I can't remember anything similar that includes a departing arctic high with fast amplification that runs either right overhead or over the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 A westerly track with a good thump. i wonder if we worry about track more than we should here because we're not used to having an artic airmass (retreating or not). obviously, track matters, but maybe not as much as it normally does (at least for the front end) when we have preceding temps like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The euro hasn't wavered for 3 days and 6 runs for the most part. The only change today was to bump precip on the front side. And only added .1-.2 or so. Saying the euro wasn't by far the best on this is flat out wrong. But it did cave in terms of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 just roll your eyes and move on. The Para CRAS was locked in 7 days ago. The only model guidance necessary...ever. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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