H2O Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Thanks Matt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Heh..the NAM is really wet...shocker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Comments like that are why I post less than I used to. please don't let the ignorant few get to you. If he can't see the nam accidentally got one aspect at one specifically location right while hopelessly screwing up the biggest features synoptically all over the place then he is either trolling or so clueless it's not worth arguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 LWX might need to upgrade to warnings - (How to stop worrying and love the NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm hugging the nam until further notice. The morning mimosas have clouded my judgement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 .5 for many of us by 18z tmrw on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm hugging the nam until further notice. The morning mimosas have clouded my judgement Actually looks like it might be a bit dry. I think 1" liquid is more likely before the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 wes - i must agree with others here. hundreds if not thousands of quiet folks learn a great deal from you. dont let the squeaky wheels drive your behavior. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Ditto - been a faithful and respectful reader of Wes' wisdom for nearly 15 years now and we all are wiser for the opportunity. Wes... please don't curtail your mentoring and insight in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4k has like 3" on the ground for DC by 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4k has like 3" on the ground for DC by 8am Loving the trajectory of the "tongue" on the nam twins. That's how you maximize the cold. They both shifted from central VA yesterday to right overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Wes, You are my E.F. Hutton of the board!! And the number one reason I spend too much time reading and learning here. As a lurker I approve this message.Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk . I'll second that motion We need you. Will you be my valentine? Co-sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 850s cave between 18 and 21z tmrw w just light precip. Looks like 4-6" by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 lol NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 wes - i must agree with others here. hundreds if not thousands of quiet folks learn a great deal from you. dont let the squeaky wheels drive your behavior. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Absolutely! You are one of the most humble and well-respected mets in my book! You are the EF Hutton of Amwx! When you talk, people listen! You are Mr Miagi of snow storms! The Real Wizard of Oz (OK DC) for snow. Appreciate your contributions always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Comments like that are why I post less than I used to. Wes, like many, I don't post that often but enjoy reading the analysis and forecasting by you and other experts on here. Please don't let comments by the few chase you off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4k NAM again is the more traditional thump - freezing drizzle/dryslot. I think it is pretty evident this is going to be a 2-parter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 18z NAM has the warmest layer reaching 0C at 2:00pm for DC, 3:00pm for Baltimore (via IWM Max 2m-500mb temperature map). Sfc 32 is I-95 or like 2 miles west at 1:00am Tuesday, so it's still trying to catch up to globals on the turnover time. 0.5"-0.7" QPF for most of the region except NE of Baltimore, kind of a cutoff north of the PA border with dry air holding strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Forecast for DC Proper for Monday/Tuesday - Confidence Level - Medium Midnight to 6am - Intermittent light snow becoming steadier toward dawn. Temps - low 20s. 6am - 2pm - Steady Light snow becoming moderate at times especially mid morning to early afternoon. Temps - mid to upper 20s 2pm - 6pm - Snow mixing with and changing to all sleet. Temps - upper 20s to low 30s. 6pm - Midnight - Sleet mixing with and tapering to light freezing rain/drizzle. Temps near 32. Midnight - 5am - Light rain/drizzle with temps rising from near freezing to near 40. 5am - 3pm - Moderate to Heavy Rain, tapering to light rain/drizzle and ending. Temps rising into the mid to upper 40s. Total accumulation - 2-3" with a healthy crust on top. However it will take a major beating on Tuesday. I have the skewts from rhe euro and at 30 hrs at Dca it's pure snow and at 36 it's probably zr, with maybe some ip. It's probably -4c at 30 hrs aloft and +2.5c at 36. So if it's a steady rise in temps, pingers would start to be heard 4-4:30 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Loving the trajectory of the "tongue" on the nam twins. That's how you maximize the cold. They both shifted from central VA yesterday to right overhead.Ukie showed it first in last night's run and held serve at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Ukie showed it first in last night's run and held serve at 12z. Everything trended in our favor at very short leads instead of the other way around. Keeps the sinking feeling at bay. Nam twins are probably too wet. I hope the rgem looks similar with the more intense precip aimed at us before we lose the column. So right now we have the euro/ukie/nam upping the ante run over run. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4k NAM again is the more traditional thump - freezing drizzle/dryslot. I think it is pretty evident this is going to be a 2-parter... Yep, that's gonna screw up our CWG freezing rain forecasts. I wonder if Monday night prior to the big Tuesday rains will be a fog fest. Light rain, a sharp inversion and snow on the ground can make for a foggy night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 LWX might need to upgrade to warnings - (How to stop worrying and love the NAM) Funny reference, there...Yeee-ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Everything trended in our favor at very short leads instead of the other way around. Keeps the sinking feeling at bay. Nam twins are probably too wet. I hope the rgem looks similar with the more intense precip aimed at us before we lose the column. So right now we have the euro/ukie/nam upping the ante run over run. Not too shabby. 1st one since the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Thanks for all the love, I over-reacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Everything trended in our favor at very short leads instead of the other way around. Keeps the sinking feeling at bay. Nam twins are probably too wet. I hope the rgem looks similar with the more intense precip aimed at us before we lose the column. So right now we have the euro/ukie/nam upping the ante run over run. Not too shabby. 3-5/4-6 on those three look great... I want some decent ratios overnight first though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Thanks for all the love, I over-reacted. Nahhh, it gets to everyone when those comments fly too much. Sometimes my eyes hurt from rolling them too much at some of them. I'll pile on and echo the same sentiments that others have expressed (the good ones, that is!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 3-5/4-6 on those three look great... I want some decent ratios overnight first though Looks like my 2" bar might come easy. 3" is winter wonderland scenery. I might have to raise the bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Actually looks like it might be a bit dry. I think 1" liquid is more likely before the flip. why not. I see we all been hitting the sauce early today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4k has like 3" on the ground for DC by 8am Loving the trajectory of the "tongue" on the nam twins. That's how you maximize the cold. They both shifted from central VA yesterday to right overhead. Just catching up on a lot of this since much earlier today. Good signs, if the NAM is correct. My biggest concern has been getting a "meh" amount tomorrow and then getting deluged with nothing much to show for it. Of course an eventual change to rain is going to happen, but I was hoping to do what we can to maximize the front end...get some glaze for a bit of excitement...before then. NAM is showing about the best scenario for this, it seems to me. In the end, it still may mostly get washed away depending on just how warm it gets late Monday night or Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like my 2" bar might come easy. 3" is winter wonderland scenery. I might have to raise the bar. I kind of wanted to go 2-4/3-4 for MBY, but want to remain cautious as a lot can still go wrong with getting enough moisture in here in round 1. I'm worried about models being too far north and/or radar too choppy. Less concerned about flipping too early. early to Mid afternoon seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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