ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z NAM looks to be a bit colder and wetter with the first "wave" It's looking good through hr 24. Probably will continue after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Definitely an uptick in snow on the front end with the 12z NAM...sharper gradient as you go north which is likely due to suppression from the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NAM'd? Approaching 5" and mix line is still around Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This run is perfect, it snows then we get mega-dry slotted so no heavy rain falls on us. 4-5" DC and burbs doing slightly better as you go south. 3" Baltimore 3-2" Winchester, Frederick 8-9 jackpot SW Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Most aggressive run of the NAM yet. It's showing consistency with this and we are in the model's wheelhouse. Hard to toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 RAP has snow reaching DC by 1:00am. NAM BARELY above freezing 4:00am Tuesday, like literally 32.2. After that it takes off, don't know if it's NAM being NAM, it's still trending to the globals with 50s in DC/Baltimore. And wow RGEM is way west, rides the WV/OH border lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like NAM also wants to make N/Central Maryland into a skating rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Through 27 on the 4K they are approaching 4" just south of D.C. and mixing is pretty far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I haven't looked close enough at all the models but this is almost coming in like a swfe. Often times the waa races in faster than modeled but so does the flip to sleet. Will be interesting to track tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Most aggressive run of the NAM yet. It's showing consistency with this and we are in the model's wheelhouse. Hard to toss it. Yeah, definitely aggressive with keeping the cold air in. I'm out to 36h on TT (00Z tomorrow evening), and the surface 32 degree line is well south of DC, sort of along a Richmond to approx. St. Mary's county (MD) line. Looks like upper 20s in the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'd lock this NAM run up in a heartbeat even if it shows us getting 3" of rain after changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Yeah, definitely aggressive with keeping the cold air in. I'm out to 36h on TT (00Z tomorrow evening), and the surface 32 degree line is well south of DC, sort of along a Richmond to approx. St. Mary's county (MD) line. Looks like upper 20s in the metro areas. At hour 39 the cold is still entrenched in the area. IMHO, this is the best possible run we can get. It dumps on us for the front end, then the FRZA showers become spotty throughout the day so we don't deal with a major ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 At hour 39 the cold is still entrenched in the area. IMHO, this is the best possible run we can get. It dumps on us for the front end, then the FRZA showers become spotty throughout the day so we don't deal with a major ice storm. I would expect there to be some freezing drizzle even if the radar shows nothing. Skating rink is definitely the word... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4K looks exactly like the low res version with a dry spot pushing in while the 0*C line is still down in St Mary's. Looks like snow then freezing rain showers. 4K snowfall looks better for those west of D.C. and about the same if not a little worse for Mt. Parkton, but we all know it won't stay that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NAM cuts the storm west right over the apps... then transfers to C NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raven94 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4K looks exactly like the low res version with a dry spot pushing in while the 0*C line is still down in St Mary's. Looks like snow then freezing rain showers. 4K snowfall looks better for those west of D.C. and about the same if not a little worse for Mt. Parkton, but we all know it won't stay that way. It might this time. This isn't out type of setup. That's ok we did good up here Tuesday. But the nam is moving towards what I said a couple days ago could happen. That waa wave probably goes west to east south of us. Then the main storm cuts up well west. Dc is in a better spot then up here for the waa thump. No one east of Elkins has much chance with the low. That's a lost cause. It's barely even going to have much snow with it anywhere it's more an inverted trough then a storm. But focusing on the lead wave I would be more worried about a miss south in dc from that then north. The best qpf from those type setups isn't goimg to be that far into the cold air. If the 850 line is down near nc the best snows should run across Roanoke and central va. Definitely not 150 miles into the arctic air. No lift there. Closer to the boundary is where you want to be. Good luck to you though, after the last few gut punches dc deserves to do well here. I had a great week up here I'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NAM is cold and snowy followed by light icing followed by a deluge on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 FWIW backend snow really helps the Winchester crew on the 4K, higher points out there start pushing 7"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Curious if the remaining watch goes to a warning or an advisory....know snow threshold for a warning is 5 inches in 12 hours, anyone know the warning threshold when it is a combo of precip types? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What I find believable about the NAM is that we often see precip type changes with different "rounds" of precipitation. So, the NAM sends the initial stuff through as snow (probably overdone on the amounts - it is the NAM), then after that shuts off we go dry/freezing drizzle. Then the big wave of moisture moves in, with some front end ZR but quickly turning over to plain rain with the heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It will be interesting to see what happens between 0-6z tues. Euro twins have most of us go from 30 to the low 40's by 6z. RGEM similar but upper 30's. Gfs is in the mid 30's. NAM twins are cold outliers. All guidance give me 2"+ of snow. I take comfort in that. Para euro gives me 3" and so does the gfs. My guess is the nam twins are too cold/snowy/icy but I hope they're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 As I posted earlier, if the heavier precip gets into the area a little quicker than GFS/Euro is showing, 12k NAM becomes a possible reality. The difference between 06z and 12z NAM is it gets the heavier stuff further north - we'll see. Happy it went wetter tho... better than drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What I find believable about the NAM is that we often see precip type changes with different "rounds" of precipitation. So, the NAM sends the initial stuff through as snow (probably overdone on the amounts - it is the NAM), then after that shuts off we go dry/freezing drizzle. Then the big wave of moisture moves in, with some front end ZR but quickly turning over to plain rain with the heavier precip. I think that is right. Plus its hard to stay freezing rain with a deluge and marginal temps because freezing releases latent heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif Thats quite bearish.... they don't even have a 10% chance of DC getting 4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif Last time I was in one of those maps, it was in the 40% chance of 4" or more and received .4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Rgem flips the cities above freezing by 21z tomorrow. Still 2-4" for 95 and west. Ice threat is minimal until you get pretty far west. Makes sense honestly but could be too warm too quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Does anything other than the NAM support 4" in DC? 4" in DC is a pipe dream right now. Thats quite bearish.... they don't even have a 10% chance of DC getting 4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Heck of a temperature gradient on the 4km NAM between DC and Leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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