clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The GGEM is solid again as well. Runs the low up the coastal plain. After a nice thump. The GFS running through WV is kind of a WTF run to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Some west-of-apps tracks showed up on the 12z RGEM ensemble. It will be interesting to see what the 00z tracks are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Many of the ice events I've seen were too fast in retreating the cold air They were probably better setups that didn't have a high running away to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think there's a very low chance this thing cuts up west of the apps. I choose to ignore the gfs at this point. Wonder what the 0z euro has in store for us. Care to explain why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The GGEM is solid again as well. Runs the low up the coastal plain. After a nice thump. The GFS running through WV is kind of a WTF run to me. Maybe a nice thump for you, but its 2" for most of us...it has slowly taken steps back since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 They were probably better setups that didn't have a high running away to the east. Mostly in-situ cad but let's see how far off the coast this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Canadian has 2" for most of us...3" northwest burbs and then some isolated higher amounts towards BR Problem with the GGEM and my fear is that precip gets held off for much of Monday so we waste our air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Mostly in-situ cad but let's see how far off the coast this goes. It could be on to something.. I dunno. This doesn't seem like a great in situ CAD situation. If it has this kind of sfc look tomorrow night I'd take it a little more seriously. At this range I'm going to go with a blend of better models plus some local understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Does this situation bear any resemblance to the storm last season where we started very briefly as snow then to IP for a time and then ZR which hung a lot longer than predicted because temps did not go above freezing as quickly as predicted? We went over 32 very late that night but the ice hung on till next morning and melted that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Synoptic pattern has better continuity but smaller scale items still in question. NAM high positioning can supress precip with dry air but can also cause further wet bulbing and cooler temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This is tricky. Does icing occur with low 30s or 20s and what are rates. Light rates and lower temps is better ice accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Mixed precip with transitions is like smoke and mirrors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Does this situation bear any resemblance to the storm last season where we started very briefly as snow then to IP for a time and then ZR which hung a lot longer than predicted because temps did not go above freezing as quickly as predicted? We went over 32 very late that night but the ice hung on till next morning and melted that day Are you talking about 3/1/15? Or...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Problem with the GGEM and my fear is that precip gets held off for much of Monday so we waste our air mass. Agreed...over/under for me is 1"...Im right on the bay east of Baltimore anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The 00z GGEM splits the low, with centers of roughly equal pressure on either side of the apps. From what I can tell from the public maps, the 12z Euro did something similar, and the 00z GFS went completely to the west. The NAM looks like it goes east of the apps, and so does the 00z UKMET, although it's hard to tell. At 72 hours, the UKMET has a 995 low over NJ, and the GFS has a 992 low northeast of Montreal. Interesting storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Does this situation bear any resemblance to the storm last season where we started very briefly as snow then to IP for a time and then ZR which hung a lot longer than predicted because temps did not go above freezing as quickly as predicted? We went over 32 very late that night but the ice hung on till next morning and melted that day Are you talking about 3/1/15? Or...? He's probably talking about 2/21/15, and the situations are remarkably similar in a way, but we weren't sweating the front end thump as much. It was a better precip delivery scenario. But super cold fresh air mass, retreating high. Low was to our west. We ended up staying cold even here in the city longer than forecast, and it was probably the best icing scenario down here I'd seen in years. Treacherous to walk around. I got 3.5" before the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 While we're waiting for the Euro, it looks like the DWD model falls into the east-of-apps camp and drops about 3-4" of snow west of I95 in Maryland before changing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I feel like the bar for this keeps getting taken down a peg each run. At this rate by Monday we will be looking at radar just trying to get precip to us befire temps spike. Then just as any decent rates pick up with barely a coating on the ground ping ping then an hour later drip drip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 He's probably talking about 2/21/15, and the situations are remarkably similar in a way, but we weren't sweating the front end thump as much. It was a better precip delivery scenario. But super cold fresh air mass, retreating high. Low was to our west. We ended up staying cold even here in the city longer than forecast, and it was probably the best icing scenario down here I'd seen in years. Treacherous to walk around. I got 3.5" before the flip. Here is the 15z surface map from 2/21/15. It started snowing right around 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I feel like the bar for this keeps getting taken down a peg each run. At this rate by Monday we will be looking at radar just trying to get precip to us befire temps spike. Then just as any decent rates pick up with barely a coating on the ground ping ping then an hour later drip drip. You've glass-half emptied your way to 150" in the last 2 years so might as well continue...you're on a roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 He's probably talking about 2/21/15, and the situations are remarkably similar in a way, but we weren't sweating the front end thump as much. It was a better precip delivery scenario. But super cold fresh air mass, retreating high. Low was to our west. We ended up staying cold even here in the city longer than forecast, and it was probably the best icing scenario down here I'd seen in years. Treacherous to walk around. I got 3.5" before the flip. I was being careful before I quoted, re-reading what he wrote multiple times. With him in Odenton near BWI, I'm not sure what he experienced, but I thought a quick burst of snow to IP then a prolonged ZR event didn't sound like 2/21/15 for any of the DC-Baltimore area. And yes, 2/21/15 is now the legendary 'weenie' storm for hostile setups before verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I was being careful before I quoted, re-reading what he wrote multiple times. With him in Odenton near BWI, I'm not sure what he experienced, but I thought a quick burst of snow to IP then a prolonged ZR event didn't sound like 2/21/15 for any of the DC-Baltimore area. And yes, 2/21/15 is now the legendary 'weenie' storm for hostile setups before verification definitely an outlier in terms of result. The state of the roads and sidewalks downtown was like 98th percentile for a ZR event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 You've glass-half emptied your way to 150" in the last 2 years so might as well continue...you're on a roll closer to 100 but yea it seems to be working and most times lately I've been playing the pessimist mostly in jest but honestly I don't have much expectation on this. Of course I hope the nam is right but I won't be surprised if this is neussance flakes quickly to rain. I really am pretty down on this one. Hope I bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 closer to 100 but yea it seems to be working and most times lately I've been playing the pessimist mostly in jest but honestly I don't have much expectation on this. Of course I hope the nam is right but I won't be surprised if this is neussance flakes quickly to rain. I really am pretty down on this one. Hope I bust. Chances of a bust are pretty high....Biggest fear is we wake up and look out the window for hours sweating radar and waiting for precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Here is the 15z surface map from 2/21/15. It started snowing right around 10am namussfc2015022115.gif It has some similar features but that pattern was not amplified at all over CONUS. Was sort of just a moisture bomb running into cold air. Barely even a low pressure. Admittedly, this event is considerably weaker at the surface today than it was a few days ago which seemingly keeps the door open a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 He's probably talking about 2/21/15, and the situations are remarkably similar in a way, but we weren't sweating the front end thump as much. It was a better precip delivery scenario. But super cold fresh air mass, retreating high. Low was to our west. We ended up staying cold even here in the city longer than forecast, and it was probably the best icing scenario down here I'd seen in years. Treacherous to walk around. I got 3.5" before the flip. These departing arctic air masses are different than very cold Canadian highs. Dewpoint would be like 2 if its going Sunday night. I think 3-5" and then these transitions can be very slow and more drizzly than deluge snow eaters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Here is the 15z surface map from 2/21/15. It started snowing right around 10am namussfc2015022115.gif Just run the low into the departing mass and let it go and snow for as long as it can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Here is the 15z surface map from 2/21/15. It started snowing right around 10am namussfc2015022115.gif Started a little earlier up here but more importantly went right into moderate snow. It didn't play around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Earlier is almost always better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 These departing arctic air masses are different than very cold Canadian highs. Dewpoint would be like 2 if its going Sunday night. I think 3-5" and then these transitions can be very slow and more drizzly than deluge snow eaters. I agree 100% that models aren't terribly skilled at getting the surface right and we often do well in terms of holding on to cold air longer than progged. I worry about how much moisture we can get in here ahead of the main complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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