Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GFS is a totally different scenario now. That low going up the west side of the apps isn't all that shocking. It won't be shocking if the next run has it on the east side. I've thought the ultimate possible solutions are pretty polarized (east or west) because it isn't that common for a low to run up the gut and right over us. That said, it is a huge shft...I think the goal posts or the either/or are a little more narrow than that. A low over Columbus seems unlikely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GFS isn't totally different for DC. Still light overrunning snows with a bit of ZR then driving rain. Looks like 12z and 06z. I'm not sure the further west track really affected the outcome. Depends where you are. Your right for DC its not that different. For the western burbs its horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I noticed the NAVGEM shifted its track west of the mountains at 18z...but meh its the NAVGEM. Now the GFS does it lol. Isn't that typically a model that is suppressed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Depends where you are. Your right for DC its not that different. For the western burbs its horrific. Thats why I said "for DC" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 GFS has us in the low 50s Tuesday, while the NAM has us in the low 30s Too bad 2 pages was wasted on NAM analysis eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 So we have for snowfall: 4km NAM 4-6, NAM/RGEM 2-4... GFS 1-3... that sound about right? maybe the lower end on models verbatim, but I think the risk of a bust is much higher than a reverse bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 According to weatherbell snow maps, the GFS deff took a bit of a step back from 18z run, only 1" in my neck of the woods (Essex MD) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Isn't that typically a model that is suppressed? Not sure what is typical bias is...kinda thought it was usually more amped. But its previous runs had the low more towards the coast but inland like most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Too bad 2 pages was wasted on NAM analysis eh? Not wasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It still could be correct. The NAM. It seems to be holding firm too. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It still could be correct. The NAM. It seems to be holding firm too. We shall see. No matter what - and this is stating the obvious - you want to be in the favored areas with these events. Gives you the best chance at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It still could be correct. The NAM. It seems to be holding firm too. We shall see. It's got pretty decent agreement from the RGEM so who knows. I am not sure the NAM has a wheelhouse. But the RGEM is usually pretty solid at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Not wasted It's a dig at our play-by-play a few pages back. Its fine. I don't care. I like weather models, and I like analyzing them. I think that the NAM is another scenario that should be examined. If he doesn't want to read me and you analyzing them, he doesn't have to. On topic: Still not a consensus with the track... GFS is even farther west than 12z. Hope to see some convergence tomorrow with the globals and mesoscales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NAM is on for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think there's a very low chance this thing cuts up west of the apps. I choose to ignore the gfs at this point. Wonder what the 0z euro has in store for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Globals don't do so well with situations like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It's got pretty decent agreement from the RGEM so who knows. I am not sure the NAM has a wheelhouse. But the RGEM is usually pretty solid at this range. There is some conventional wisdom that the NAM handles CAD better than the globals, and maybe that is true, but the problem is the NAM isn't a very good winter model, so it is always hard to put much faith in it, especially when it doesn't have a lot of support. All in all, I'd favor the euro - It is has been more consistent and it is better than all the other models. You want to look at all the data, but the Euro is a superior model. Given that and its relative consistency hard to veer too far from it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vance1167 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 There is some conventional wisdom that the NAM handles CAD better than the globals, and maybe that is true, but the problem is the NAM isn't a very good winter model, so it is always hard to put much faith in it, especially when it doesn't have a lot of support. All in all, I'd favor the euro - It is has been more consistent and it is better than all the other models. You want to look at all the data, but the Euro is a superior model. Given that and its relative consistency hard to veer too far from it... Wasnt the NAM king on 2/14/07? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 There is some conventional wisdom that the NAM handles CAD better than the globals, and maybe that is true, but the problem is the NAM isn't a very good winter model, so it is always hard to put much faith in it, especially when it doesn't have a lot of support. All in all, I'd favor the euro - It is has been more consistent and it is better than all the other models. You want to look at all the data, but the Euro is a superior model. Given that and its relative consistency hard to veer too far from it... NAM did awful on 2/21 with the 1-3" for Leesburg setup. BUT GFS is also not showing run to run continuity on this. Think this run made a big move to the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 So we have for snowfall: 4km NAM 4-6, NAM/RGEM 2-4... GFS 1-3... that sound about right? Blend em. I'll get 3 inches, then some IP and ZR then rain. I dont get wraparound. That happens in Mappy's BY, and rightly so. I'll take it. Just to be safe - I'll expect 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 There is some conventional wisdom that the NAM handles CAD better than the globals, and maybe that is true, but the problem is the NAM isn't a very good winter model, so it is always hard to put much faith in it, especially when it doesn't have a lot of support. All in all, I'd favor the euro - It is has been more consistent and it is better than all the other models. You want to look at all the data, but the Euro is a superior model. Given that and its relative consistency hard to veer too far from it... Yes. The consistency is hard to overlook. Before the blizzard the euro was a little bouncy with the heavy snow center but the gfs was very steady. This time the euro really hasn't wavered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Blend em. I'll get 3 inches, then some IP and ZR then rain. I dont get wraparound. That happens in Mappy's BY. I'll take it. Please, I get wrap around always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Wasnt the NAM king on 2/14/07? That was 9 years ago. It may have been west first. Not sure why that is relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 There is some conventional wisdom that the NAM handles CAD better than the globals, and maybe that is true, but the problem is the NAM isn't a very good winter model, so it is always hard to put much faith in it, especially when it doesn't have a lot of support. All in all, I'd favor the euro - It is has been more consistent and it is better than all the other models. You want to look at all the data, but the Euro is a superior model. Given that and its relative consistency hard to veer too far from it... I agree with you. The Euro is the safest bet for sure. It is interesting how different the solutions have been with the past couple of events. The last one the writing was on the wall for me. I knew it was a classic screw job for my area days in advance. This one is a little more tricky with the very cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Please, I get wrap around always Of course you do. You've got the climo, you will always get the wraparound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Globals don't do so well with situations like this That's not really true. They can underestimate CAD especially from range but they tend to get the general gist as it closes. The Euro is pretty freaking hi res at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 That's not really true. They can underestimate CAD especially from range but they tend to get the general gist as it closes. The Euro is pretty freaking hi res at this point. Many of the ice events I've seen were too fast in retreating the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Canadian has 2" for most of us...3" northwest burbs and then some isolated higher amounts towards BR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This is an advisory type event...advisory snow, nuisance ice in the cities...higher impact west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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