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2/12-13 Snow Showers


snowfan

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They blew it prior to the blizzard with untreated roads and 1/2" of snow that packed down to a glaze.  Once burned they over caution everything else until May.

 

Light dusting here but no real temp drop so still think the arctic surge is back west about 4-6 hours from moving thru and we well may get a better burst then.

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I'd say it's delayed. Echos no longer over me, but nice snow still falling with big flakes

The delay is normal. Especially with light dry snow. There's a lag between the radar beam picking up flakes above and ground truth. One of our members (I apologize for not remembering who) posted a good example with a pic of big flakes falling with a sunny backdrop.

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This was a stupid event all around. I covered flurries for 5 hours.

This is a really crude rule-of-thumb I have been using just based on observing these little events over the years: At least one model that's not a short term one--- NAM, GFS, Euro, RGEM-- has to spit out a 0.1" QPF contour somewhere nearby for me to be optimistic of seeing beyond a trace. 

 

There was this tiny bullseye of 0.1" QPF over the DC metro region on the NAM the day of the pre-blizzard inch which made the possibility of an actual accumulation legit in my mind. Over the years, we've had many clipper situations where either the GFS or NAM blinked in the last moment, but as long one of the two still painted 0.1"+ QPF over the area, there ended up being multiple 1" snow totals. 

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