downeastnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 GFS likes a general 1-3 down east from New Bern to Washington over to Nags Head Todays runs have been pretty steady with the low forming etc, at this point I will settle for that, gotta have the low to get snow of any kind to begin with, I will sweat amounts tomorrow night lol. Saw the French model and it was a pretty aggressive for a lot of NC not just downeast......its done ok lately so who knows but the trend for storms to be a lot wetter than modeled would fit....those qpf totals on the French model would give a lot of us a bit more than 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 RGEM coming on board with a nice snow event for Eastern NC and all the way back to RDU. Solid 2-4" if ratios are 12:1 or so and qpf looks like it may be in the .2-.3 range for Eastern NC based on the meteofrance maps. It's similar to the ARPEGE but wetter from RDU and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 RGEM coming on board with a nice snow event for Eastern NC and all the way back to RDU. Solid 2-4" if ratios are 12:1 or so and qpf looks like it may be in the .2-.3 range for Eastern NC based on the meteofrance maps. It's similar to the ARPEGE but wetter from RDU and points east. RGEM only goes out to 48 hours and is a Canadian model. Are you talking about something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Looking at the 300mb jet circulation and the vorticity advection, this is a rather sharp trough. It would not surprise me if this over performed model guidance. Same for the Sunday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 RGEM only goes out to 48 hours and is a Canadian model. Are you talking about something else? It goes out to 54 hours on the 06z and 18z runs. Here is the link if you want to take a look at hours 48 and 54. Hour 54 is below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 RGEM on board is the best news of the day. I would rather have it showing something at this range then the Euro. Edit: looks north though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 RGEM on board is the best news of the day. I would rather have it showing something at this range then the Euro. Edit: looks north though That's the 54 hr panel here is the 48, .50-1.0" qpf.....would be more than a nuisance event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I like the look of this blob in TN/NGA right now, more than the coastal thing, but neither is going to bring me anything! But the little disturbance in GA, seems like a surprise ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That's mm Ron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18z RGEM is stuck at hr 15 on the model center so no weenie maps. I pulled this from the CMC.ca site, valid 1pm Friday. It actually starts around 11am, RN/SN line is around Jacksonville to Fayetteville at that time before lifting north to New Bern - Goldsboro at 1. My guess is it would be over shortly after dark. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 That's mm Ron ****ing canadians pissing on my parade lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Nam 12k much wetter for central/eastern NC on the 00Z .....could be a much better run for all and closer to the French and RGEM's, this should stir the central NC posters up a bit this only thru 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Substantially juicer and wider extent of the precip. field. The NAM is starting to come into its reliable range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Check box on the 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Here ya go kiddies token 1" for RDU this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Nam 12k much wetter for central/eastern NC on the 00Z .....could be a much better run for all and closer to the French and RGEM's, this should stir the central NC posters up a bit this only thru 42 oh damn.png Wow! We may actually have a chance here. Be kind of funny if this ended up being our big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Wow! We may actually have a chance here. Be kind of funny if this ended up being our big storm. Always slash Nam QPF by at least 75%. You know this man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Wow! We may actually have a chance here. Be kind of funny if this ended up being our big storm. Considering that the cold is strong the weekend if we did somehow pull a decent hit out of this one wonders just how cold it gets over the weekend with a snowpack and how that might play into Mondays system.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Always slash Nam QPF by at least 75%. You know this man! Not this year at least for me down here, your are better off doubling it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Weenie map removing ice, so this should be a more accurate picture of what falls as snow. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Not this year at least for me down here, your are better off doubling it..... Lol sorry man. I will never double the NAM's QPF...under any circumstances! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Lol sorry man. I will never double the NAM's QPF...under any circumstances! Said Noah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Love point forecasts that are this specific Friday Scattered flurries before 1pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow showers and sleet after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Friday Night A chance of snow and sleet before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. South wind 5 to 8 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Said Noah. Haha nah Noah took the Nam seriously. And for once in the entire scope of human existence, it was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Haha nah Noah took the Nam seriously. And for once in the entire scope of human existence, it was correct. I believe it was the ETA back then. I was really shocked to see NWS Blacksburg with a 30% chance of snow in my forecast Friday all the way up here. Doesn't really look like anything here unless you look at the 4k/12k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I believe it was the ETA back then. I was really shocked to see NWS Blacksburg with a 30% chance of snow in my forecast Friday all the way up here. Doesn't really look like anything here unless you look at the 4k/12k NAM. True! Or the NGM? Anyway, hopefully the thing continues to trend wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm usually pretty optimistic, but my gut tells me if mby is gonna hit climo this year I better cash in with one of these next 2 events and this one unfortunately has right at zilch over here. I'd rather score big with this event because of the cold that follows for a few days. So if someone hits the jackpot you get the double bonus of being able to enjoy it all weekend without any drip drip. I just ain't feeling g it after this week, could be and hopefully wrong but that's saying alot when 2 of the biggest 3 snowfalls I've personally witnessed in NC fell 17 inches on Feb 28 and 15 inches in first week of March 1993. Morale is enjoy every flake that falls , cause a long dry summer is fast approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Be wary. Hires nam had Rdu painted over with precip last event and we got nothing. 32k nam shows a little qpf at the surface but not much in way of accums. If you expect anything more than snow showers in Rdu you will be disappointed with this one IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 00z RGEM snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Be wary. Hires nam had Rdu painted over with precip last event and we got nothing. 32k nam shows a little qpf at the surface but not much in way of accums. If you expect anything more than snow showers in Rdu you will be disappointed with this one IMO Rgem and ARPEGE are the way to go inside 60 hours. Nam overdoes qpf too often but with ARPEGE and rgem on board with a good 1-3" snowfall I think chances are pretty good for a nice little snow. GFS is coming on board now too the 00z run looks a little better. The 12z Euro ensembles looked pretty good too. It won't be a big storm but a solid 1-3" especially in Eastern NC looks like a good chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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