PackGrad05 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Fishel says 25% chance of .6" 10% chance of 1 inch at RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I would withhold judgement here on a 1-3" type deal to the 0z and see if the back off continues. Interesting that the nam and rgem both have the heavier axis to out south and east where temps could be an issue, GFS is north and east. Split the difference and we are ok, .2-.3" liquid equivalent seems to be the high end for whatever it's worth, <.1" is the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 NE NC has really gotten lucky the past couple of years. A couple of 8-12" storms, including that one freak storm in 2014 that unexpectedly dropped a foot on New Bern-Washington. And OBX saw decent sound effect snow last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 NE NC has really gotten lucky the past couple of years. A couple of 8-12" storms, including that one freak storm in 2014 that unexpectedly dropped a foot on New Bern-Washington. And OBX saw decent sound effect snow last month. Its always fun to read about how other see the state area wise because to me New Bern and Washington are central coastal NC, to me NE NC is the north half of the middle ground and up to the VA border....and then back west to Roanoke Rapids down to RWI and down to maybe Williamston. Models have tended to fluctuate with intensity of the low but as long as it forms I think we are good for 2" at least at PGV....again experience tells me that these tend to over perform in setups similar to this but with the way this year has gone only eeking out a dusting wouldn't shock me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I have been reading this thread for a few days and am only now getting a bit excited about this. I am hoping for at least 1 maybe 2 inches tomorrow. The forecast has been dropping the day time high from 40 earlier to only 35 now. As long as that warm nose doesn't come into play, I will be happy. By the way, all schools are closed in the area tomorrow already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Best frame on the 20z experimental HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 They've slowed down the precip tomorrow from "mainly after 8" to "Mainly after 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Best frame on the 20z experimental HRRR ack. 18z RGEM had a similar look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Toss the models, it's nowcasting time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So how good is this model??.......I know it sucks but figure I will torture the RDU people with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Also the water temps out there off the NC coast are in the 60's and this may be one of the reasons the models are under performing on QPF and low strength this season, not saying it will have anything to do with the low this time around ( since thats how our luck runs) but if it does over perform thats probably a reason why...not sure how well that type of info is incorporated into model data..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So how good is this model??.......I know it sucks but figure I will torture the RDU people with it wrf-nmm_asnow_seus_48.png Lol pulling out all the stops, I see. My man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Lol pulling out all the stops, I see. My man! just wait sometime tonight its gonna show a foot somewhere I bet.....the latest trends are not encouraging however, but my personal experiences tells me to not give up and that setups like this do over perform ( they dont always do so) quite often for us...usually when I only get a dusting to a couple of inches the energy is more over land or a overrunning type event, its rare that we get snow from a low offshore that doesnt do ok IMBY....besides if we dont get 4" of snow tomorrow I most likely wont get my 4-6" average for the season..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 just wait sometime tonight its gonna show a foot somewhere I bet.....the latest trends are not encouraging however, but my personal experiences tells me to not give up and that setups like this do over perform ( they dont always do so) quite often for us...usually when I only get a dusting to a couple of inches the energy is more over land or a overrunning type event, its rare that we get snow from a low offshore that doesnt do ok IMBY....besides if we dont get 4" of snow tomorrow I most likely wont get my 4-6" average for the season..... You look good for something. I've seen enough of these things to know not to get too excited around these parts. Good luck man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This is reminding me of the sunday storm, just without the bombogenesis... precip barely made it into SE Wake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'll take anything frozen down my way (northern Cumberland County) as long as it isn't freezing rain again. Still cleaning up from the one in January. Amen, Ragtop! That GFS run would cheese off folks in FAY, but if it keeps the ice from piling up I think they'd rather be wet than sitting in the dark again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Welp, Pitt county cancelled school tomorrow and just got a call from our Sons private school they are also cancelled. Going to be pretty funny if we end up with zip or a trace and school was cancelled. Not really feeling it like I was 24hrs ago, but we did have that event around this time in 2014 where we were not supposed to get much 24hrs out, and it snowed all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Welp, Pitt county cancelled school tomorrow and just got a call from our Sons private school they are also cancelled. Going to be pretty funny if we end up with zip or a trace and school was cancelled. Not really feeling it like I was 24hrs ago, but we did have that event around this time in 2014 where we were not supposed to get much 24hrs out, and it snowed all day. The SLP on the last runs where pretty telling the CMC/RGEM and GFS were offshore a good ways with 1012-1017mb lows and moving almost due east with the SLP. The NAM and the cough WRF cough were closer and stronger moving more NE with 1005-1008mb lows....if the base of the trough is sharp enough then it will amp up more and we get our over performer if it stays wider and flatter at the base well lets hope we get 1-2" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NC has a winter storm warning for 1-3"? That's a dusting. Maybe put down some salt for the sleet. -- ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHTEST FRIDAY NIGHT......THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET...SNOWAND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ANDICE ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAYEVENING AND DANGEROUS TRAVELS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 3" in 12hrs I believe is warning criteria for the inner and outer banks counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 NC has a winter storm warning for 1-3"? That's a dusting. Maybe put down some salt for the sleet. -- ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT... ...THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND DANGEROUS TRAVELS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. "NC" is a pretty big generalization. Pretty sure the mountains and the beach have different classifications for WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM is looking a tad drier. Pretty much nothing west of Greenville besides flurries. Greenville itself around .1" QPFSurface low is a good 20ish miles further north this run compared to 18z, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 SREF has decreased from a mean of 1/2" to 1/10" for RDU I'll be lucky to see a flake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NC has a winter storm warning for 1-3"? That's a dusting. Maybe put down some salt for the sleet. -- ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHTEST FRIDAY NIGHT......THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET...SNOWAND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ANDICE ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAYEVENING AND DANGEROUS TRAVELS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. You got to consider where it is, kinda like us wondering why they have a excessive heat warning for heat indexs over 95 up north....out that way there are no plows etc and a lot of country roads etcs with people that might have 1-2 chances a year to drive on snowy roads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Hrrr dry as a bone. Stick a fork in this one. Doubt Rdu will even see a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 "NC" is a pretty big generalization. Pretty sure the mountains and the beach have different classifications for WSW. Although some of those WSWs were issued by NWS Wakefield, Va., which covers a much more snow-prone region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 NAM is looking a tad drier. Pretty much nothing west of Greenville besides flurries. Greenville itself around .1" QPF Surface low is a good 20ish miles further north this run compared to 18z, as well. pretty sharp gradient almost .30" in far SE corner of Pitt Co less than .10" NW corner......gonna be tough to swallow if we end up with a dusting but again its tough to nail down QPF and extent on systems like this so I am gonna file this under a win because the run still has the low.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Although some of those WSWs were issued by NWS Wakefield, Va., which covers a much more snow-prone region. Not much if any difference between the Wakefield NC areas and the MHX areas when it comes to yearly snowfall maybe a 1-2" difference at best.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Start time back to 2:00 now... looks like we'll be going to physical therapy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I hope I see some clouds tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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