showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 And the 06Z GEFS is even farther west now driving the low up the Ohio valley into western PA. Not ready to give up on this yet, being 5+ days ou,t but with all the model ensembles shifting pretty significantly to the west over night I think there is cause for serious concern if you are a snow lover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 A win for the Ukie so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 another warm snow storm. cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Crazy gradient on euro. 10" here and 0 dca bwi. The euro has been bouncing around with that edge for several runs but it's been in our area each time. Shifted 20 miles west this run. Euro is still a colder setup overall just need the track a little more east. All other guidance is on a completely different idea right now. I still doubt we lock in on this for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 If the coastal idea does prevail in the end, it would be quite the fail for the GFS. I don't know if we can ignore this west trend though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The differences between the gfs and the last 2 nam runs is stark. Nam really develops the Sunday/Monday storm and pulls cold air south leaving a strong nw flow of cold air advection into the area. Gfs squashes that storm which precludes the cold air advection leaving a lousy setup for our storm. I'm thinking gfs caves to nam, but I could be wrong. That would be something. NAM though seems to overdue strength of storms, especially at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 If the coastal idea does prevail in the end, it would be quite the fail for the GFS. I don't know if we can ignore this west trend though. weren't they all showing a coastal idea yesterday. Nothing has locked in on one idea very long yet. The eps has split into two camps. The larger camp is now an inland track. That's troubling since it was strongly a coastal signal before. About 2/3 are now inland and 1/3 coastal. Oddly the inland camp is way west. Some cut the low into Indiana. We're not talking an Ohio western pa storm. I'm talking a Chicago to Detroit storn kinda west. It's not even close. At the same time the 1/3 coastal idea is very snowy here. The mean in our area stayed the same even though most members now show nothing. That's because there are now 8 or so that bullseye dc to Balt with 8"+. Some way more then 8. Then another 8 or so with big totals just nw and decent snow 2-5" into the metros. So the eps definitely took a step towards a bad solution but it's still holding onto a cluster of snowy solutions. Enough to keep watching it.ETA: just looked at 6z gfs. That's a lot like what the west eps camp looks like. Bombs the low and drives it up into Ohio. Ugly trend for sure but I want to see more then one run with that idea before I feel confident it's locked in. It was only 12 hours ago we were saying everything's locked in on a coastal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 weren't they all showing a coastal idea yesterday. Nothing has locked in on one idea very long yet. The eps has split into two camps. The larger camp is now an inland track. That's troubling since it was strongly a coastal signal before. About 2/3 are now inland and 1/3 coastal. Oddly the inland camp is way west. Some cut the low into Indiana. We're not talking an Ohio western pa storm. I'm talking a Chicago to Detroit storn kinda west. It's not even close. At the same time the 1/3 coastal idea is very snowy here. The mean in our area stayed the same even though most members now show nothing. That's because there are now 8 or so that bullseye dc to Balt with 8"+. Some way more then 8. Then another 8 or so with big totals just nw and decent snow 2-5" into the metros. So the eps definitely took a step towards a bad solution but it's still holding onto a cluster of snowy solutions. Enough to keep watching it. Actually yesterdays 00Z ensemble members were roughly 50% (didn't count though so maybe off a little) DC and west tracks so it was even hinting then on the possibility. Out of curiosity I have noticed that the models seem to veer off course quite often in the mid range (4-6 day) and readjust back to a semblance of their original solution. Now if I am not just imagining that do you have any idea why? Maybe a resolution issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Actually yesterdays 00Z ensemble members were roughly 50% (didn't count though so maybe off a little) DC and west tracks so it was even hinting then on the possibility. Out of curiosity I have noticed that the models seem to veer off course quite often in the mid range (4-6 day) and readjust back to a semblance of their original solution. Now if I am not just imagining that do you have any idea why? Maybe a resolution issue? it's just "perception bias" -- it's what makes humans bad forecasters at times -- we tend to weight outcomes which are more favorable to us making it appear to happen more often that it does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The differences between the gfs and the last 2 nam runs is stark. Nam really develops the Sunday/Monday storm and pulls cold air south leaving a strong nw flow of cold air advection into the area. Gfs squashes that storm which precludes the cold air advection leaving a lousy setup for our storm. I'm thinking gfs caves to nam, but I could be wrong. When we start hoping the GFS caves to the NAM we know we are in trouble. We can enjoy very green lawns at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Actually yesterdays 00Z ensemble members were roughly 50% (didn't count though so maybe off a little) DC and west tracks so it was even hinting then on the possibility. Out of curiosity I have noticed that the models seem to veer off course quite often in the mid range (4-6 day) and readjust back to a semblance of their original solution. Now if I am not just imagining that do you have any idea why? Maybe a resolution issue?. I have noticed that but I have no idea if it's just perception, the models usually having a bad run or two somewhere in the week leading up, or a real thing. Of course the coastal idea might have been the bad run. Looking at the mean snowfall on eps you can see the split idea. If you take out the max over the spine of the apps that is always there due to upslope behind storms and enhancement there are clearly two maxes. One over Indiana and nw Ohio up through western ny. The other max starts in nc and runs up the coast centered just west of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 it's just "perception bias" -- it's what makes humans bad forecasters at times -- we tend to weight outcomes which are more favorable to us making it appear to happen more often that it does.... That's what I figured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 it's just "perception bias" -- it's what makes humans bad forecasters at times -- we tend to weight outcomes which are more favorable to us making it appear to happen more often that it does... Could very well be true. Quick question if you don't mind. There have been so many upgrades with the models recently I have lost track of what has been done. Are they all now run at the same resolution throughout the entirety of the run or do we still have some that run at a lower resolution after a certain point as with the GFS a year or two ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 lol who cares about dc. This was never their storm Hopefully, you rain Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Could very well be true. Quick question if you don't mind. There have been so many upgrades with the models recently I have lost track of what has been done. Are they all now run at the same resolution throughout the entirety of the run or do we still have some that run at a lower resolution after a certain point as with the GFS a year or two ago? Here's the current configuration: Increase horizontal resolution of the first segment of the forecast from Eulerian T574 (~27 km) to Semi-Lagrangian T1534 (~13 km), and extend the length of forecast from 192 hours to 240 hours Increase horizontal resolution of the second segment of the forecast from Eulerian T192 (~84 km) to semi-Lagrangian T574 (~35km), and set forecast time from 240 hours to 384 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Which is it? Bad or way better? He meant bad for Philly. The Canadian wasn't even close to a snowstorm for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 And the 06Z GEFS is even farther west now driving the low up the Ohio valley into western PA. Not ready to give up on this yet, being 5+ days ou,t but with all the model ensembles shifting pretty significantly to the west over night I think there is cause for serious concern if you are a snow lover. yea just looked. They are really ugly. Look like the west eps camp. Only 2 hold onto any coastal idea. True lakes cutter. Indiana to Detroit storm. With the eps moving that way I'd have to give that idea the nod right now. If today's runs lock in on that it's probably time to start looking towards what comes after. I wouldn't be shocked at another twist though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Might have been stated, but the para Euro looks much more like the GFS than it does the Euro Edit: The 6z gfs that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 I disagree. That's very positive technicalities they are trying to nail at this range and I'm impressed. They are already saying a cutter and ots are unlikely. That's huge! How's that looking this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 How's that leap day/early March threat looking? March snow threats especially during an El Nino usually work out well so this should be no exception. March 2016 is gonna rock! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I see the masses have positioned themselves on the ledge already. Plenty of time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I see the masses have positioned themselves on the ledge already. Plenty of time left. euro para looks horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I see the masses have positioned themselves on the ledge already. Plenty of time left. Yeah for it to cut to Chicago. The trends are not good no matter how you try to spin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I see the masses have positioned themselves on the ledge already. Plenty of time left. When you see one or maybe even two of the majors shift significantly then there is reason to be doubtful. But when you see basically every single one shift significantly at the same time then you might as well get ready to jump. If we see these models hold onto this western track solution for a full day of runs then that is probably all she wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 euro para looks horrible gfs para is a swing and miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 ensembles still show many big hits but alot of west tracks too. Way more than before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 gfs para is a swing and miss You have the 6z already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 ensembles still show many big hits but alot of west tracks too. Way more than before Do you like anything beyond next week from what you are seeing? Realize the pattern looks ok but anything specific. I didn't see anything that jumped off the screen. we need one more to track...just one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 You have the 6z already? Its still the 00z run, I was comparing it to the para euro that Ji was posting about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 ensembles still show many big hits but alot of west tracks too. Way more than before Unfriendly trendley Just took a look at the overnight and AM stuff. The trend to coastal yesterday was donkey punched. The WAR won't be denied. The last storm tracked west also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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