February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[WinterWxLuvr]

Unfriendly trendley

 

Just took a look at the overnight and AM stuff. The trend to coastal yesterday was donkey punched. The WAR won't be denied. The last storm tracked west also. 

Crazy consistent west track on the 6z gefs.  Looks very similar to Monday............minus the arctic cold in front.

 

This must be a very sensitive situation with so much jumping around, and the pretty big differences in the two major global models.  It's going to be fun to see the 12 runs all lined up next to each other.

[mitchnick]

When we start hoping the GFS caves to the NAM we know we are in trouble. We can enjoy very green lawns at this point.

Except the nam is a whole lot closer to the euro and the gfs looks nothing like the euro. Now what?

[Ji]

Do you like anything beyond next week from what you are seeing? Realize the pattern looks ok but anything specific.  I didn't see anything that jumped off the screen.  we need one more to track...just one. 

we need blocking so as blocking develops towards the end of Feb/march, we will start seeing more legit threads. We suck with thread the needles

[Warm Nose]

Latest Bernie Rayno vid: Still likes it to be colder, but a good explanation of the dynamics

 

Not buying all the way into the Western cutter track.

[Ralph Wiggum]

euro para looks horrible

Only model that looks marginally 'ok' is the NAVGEM and even that moved West considerably from 0z to 6z.

[mitchnick]

we need blocking so as blocking develops towards the end of Feb/march, we will start seeing more legit threads. We suck with thread the needles

That's like saying exceptions rarely happen. ...well, yeah!

[Bob Chill]

Just scanned the eps members. There's really no consensus on anything. Different waves, different timing, different tracks. It's easy to connect the dots with the WAR and more of an inland track but we should see some brand new solutions from the ops over the next 3-4 runs or so if I had to guess. Weird storm(s)

[mitchnick]

Just scanned the eps members. There's really no consensus on anything. Different waves, different timing, different tracks. It's easy to connect the dots with the WAR and more of an inland track but we should see some brand new solutions from the ops over the next 3-4 runs or so if I had to guess. Weird storm(s)

That first storm remains the key in my mind. We may just have to wait until Sunday to have a better idea because of it.

[stormtracker]

That first storm remains the key in my mind. We may just have to wait until Sunday to have a better idea because of it.

You're either on to something or on something.  I hope it's the former.  

[Ian]

Latest Bernie Rayno vid: Still likes it to be colder, but a good explanation of the dynamics

 

Not buying all the way into the Western cutter track.

These posts could go on repeat. Rayno says it's too far west. Bastardi thinks snow in the cities. Models are wrong!

[Warm Nose]

These posts could go on repeat. Rayno says it's too far west. Bastardi thinks snow in the cities. Models are wrong!

 

He does a good job of explaining the setup. What's the issue? He gives his opinion as do many others on here.

[psuhoffman]

Might have been stated, but the para Euro looks much more like the GFS than it does the Euro

 

Edit:  The 6z gfs that is.

not surprising, the eps had a majority cluster running up the ohio valley like the 6z GFS.  It was probably a fluke that the op decided to be in the minority coastal camp. 

[usedtobe]

These posts could go on repeat. Rayno says it's too far west. Bastardi thinks snow in the cities. Models are wrong!

Good luck to all of them. Who the heck is Rayno.  Whenever I hear the name I flash to Drano though I don't know him and he might be a great forecaster for all I know.  For you and me snow is a long shot, maybe not quite lottery long shot but the probability is pretty low. 

[psuhoffman]

When you see one or maybe even two of the majors shift significantly then there is reason to be doubtful. But when you see basically every single one shift significantly at the same time then you might as well get ready to jump. If we see these models hold onto this western track solution for a full day of runs then that is probably all she wrote.

I was already focused more on the period after this mess next week anyways, losing this threat stings a little but I had low expectations for it.  The GEFS goes haywire in the long range.  It has good AO blocking but still tries to pull the pacific trough east enough to flood us with warm air under the blocking.  It has done this a few times and been wrong each time so I tend to defer to both the GGEM and EPS ensembles that show a trough in the east under the blocking.  The EPS has yet to show any consistent threats, mainly because the trough gets pulled a bit too far east after the storm goes by for a while.  It looks to be building back in a better position with the STJ getting going towards day 15.  The rollover Ian showed yesterday supports this idea.  I know no one wants to be waiting that long this time of year but it really does look like the best threat window may be March 5-15.  Thats pushing it I will admit but thats the timing right now of how this seems to be evolving.  I wouldn't be shocked though if as we get closer to the period of good blocking things start to pop up on the ops before that. 

[RichmondTarHeel]

Good luck to all of them. Who the heck is Rayno.  Whenever I hear the name I flash to Drano though I don't know him and he might be a great forecaster for all I know.  For you and me snow is a long shot, maybe not quite lottery long shot but the probability is pretty low. 

 

Bernie is solid.  He doesn't wishcast for snow like some Mets and he also isn't overly pessimistic and anti-snow like other Mets.  He's solidly in the middle and does a great job of explaining best case and worst case scenarios for snow lovers.  Been watching his videos for years.  He's a bit of a Euro hugger, but who isn't these days?

[mitchnick]

You're either on to something or on something. I hope it's the former.

If the storm is weak, we're screwed. If strong, lesser chance of getting screwed.

[WinterWxLuvr]

That first storm remains the key in my mind. We may just have to wait until Sunday to have a better idea because of it.

If that first one trends any more south, we'll be talking about it.

[RichmondTarHeel]

Interested to see where the 12z GFS takes the storm this time.  Should be rolling in soon, right?

[showmethesnow]

I was already focused more on the period after this mess next week anyways, losing this threat stings a little but I had low expectations for it.  The GEFS goes haywire in the long range.  It has good AO blocking but still tries to pull the pacific trough east enough to flood us with warm air under the blocking.  It has done this a few times and been wrong each time so I tend to defer to both the GGEM and EPS ensembles that show a trough in the east under the blocking.  The EPS has yet to show any consistent threats, mainly because the trough gets pulled a bit too far east after the storm goes by for a while.  It looks to be building back in a better position with the STJ getting going towards day 15.  The rollover Ian showed yesterday supports this idea.  I know no one wants to be waiting that long this time of year but it really does look like the best threat window may be March 5-15.  Thats pushing it I will admit but thats the timing right now of how this seems to be evolving.  I wouldn't be shocked though if as we get closer to the period of good blocking things start to pop up on the ops before that. 

I normally stay very focused on the current threat with only occasional glances beyond so about the only knowledge I have about future potential I normally glean from you, Chill, and some other very knowledgeable individuals. I will say that 3 days ago I did do a little harder look beyond and actually thought there was some very good potential even immediately after this current threat. Showed a lot of moving parts with a good deal of good features along with some bad. All in all I thought it would be a fairly easy pattern to luck our way into something. Now with this low looking like it is going to ride up inland, probably to our west, I am sure that look I liked has been shot to hell. So here's hoping that you and Chill are right and this potential good pattern does verify because we are just about out of time.

 

I will say as far as this current threat if we see no change in the next day of runs I will be sticking a fork in it and looking down the road as well.

[Bob Chill]

 So here's hoping that you and Chill are right and this potential good pattern does verify because we are just about out of time.

 

I will say as far as this current threat if we see no change in the next day of runs I will be sticking a fork in it and looking down the road as well.

 

The important long wave features are most likely going to verify in a similar fashion to what ensemble guidance is showing. But how that translates to sensible wx (snow) is always extremely tricky. SNE has had a really rough go this winter with things not lining up right. It's what makes this hobby fun and frustrating as heck. It would hardly surprise me if things don't line up for us going forward but staying in the game is all you can ever ask.  

 

Seems like the wave train should continue for the foreseeable future. I doubt we suddenly go dry after the storm next week. My guess is late month offers a shot at something. And the first week of March doesn't appear to be a "shut out" pattern either. 

[showmethesnow]

Already at the 90 hr there are some decent changes to the trough that will probably translate down stream.

[showmethesnow]

The important long wave features are most likely going to verify in a similar fashion to what ensemble guidance is showing. But how that translates to sensible wx (snow) is always extremely tricky. SNE has had a really rough go this winter with things not lining up right. It's what makes this hobby fun and frustrating as heck. It would hardly surprise me if things don't line up for us going forward but staying in the game is all you can ever ask.  

 

Seems like the wave train should continue for the foreseeable future. I doubt we suddenly go dry after the storm next week. My guess is late month offers a shot at something. And the first week of March doesn't appear to be a "shut out" pattern either. 

All we can ask for is that the players are on the field. Now whether they play or not is another story. 

[Bob Chill]

Now the gfs has gone from one homogeneous piece of energy it has 2 distinct and separate waves. So much chaos. 

[psuhoffman]

If the storm is weak, we're screwed. If strong, lesser chance of getting screwed.

I know what your looking at, and having that weekend storm bomb out and pull even more cold down cant possibly hurt,  but I am not sure its the end all that youre making it.  If you look at the 6z GFS, it has the high in almost the same spot as the NAM regardless of that first wave being weak.  It gets plenty of cold in ahead of the storm.  I think people are still stuck in the frame of mind that we were trying to get cold in as the storm came up like what was being shown a few days ago. Things have shifted and a nice little high comes down ahead of the storm now.  That is on all guidance.  The problem isnt not having cold in front anymore, now its the evolution of the system.  A few days ago we had a two wave system.  Wave one was weak and ran out ahead, then wave two was the one to dig in and amplify.  That is important because it gave the trough coming in more time to advance east and get a good track.  The trend now is for wave one to amplify and part of wave two phases into it, and that allows it to cut way west since the trough axis is still back over the ohio valley at that time.  If wave one is the main player I don't think we have any chance at all no matter how much cold comes in behind the sunday system.  Its not an arctic high, and whatever cold comes down will get eradicated fast as the flow backs out of the southeast ahead of the trough if a system is amplifying and cutting up west.  Look at the 6z GFS at one point before the storm it gets the 850 line down to the NC border, then 12 hours later its near cleveland.  The trend we need is for that first wave to be weaker and slide out and then get the second system to dig in and bomb along the coast or for the second to act as a kicker and push the first wave east, if they phase its over. 

[showmethesnow]

Now the gfs has gone from one homogeneous piece of energy it has 2 distinct and separate waves. So much chaos. 

Just so much energy flying around the models have no idea what to key on.

[psuhoffman]

Now the gfs has gone from one homogeneous piece of energy it has 2 distinct and separate waves. So much chaos. 

read my post above, that is a good thing

[Bob Chill]

read my post above, that is a good thing

 

Totally agree that it's a good thing. But is it the right thing? lol

[cae]

Seems like the wave train should continue for the foreseeable future. I doubt we suddenly go dry after the storm next week. My guess is late month offers a shot at something. And the first week of March doesn't appear to be a "shut out" pattern either. 

 

My expectations for the first week of March are tempered by the lack of qpf on the ensembles.  I don't have access to the tools some of you have, but the GEFS and GEFS look like most systems would give us well less than 1" of qpf, whether it falls as rain or snow.  We could get a nice moderate event, but I don't see much of a signal in the ensembles for something more.

[midatlanticweather]

Totally agree that it's a good thing. But is it the right thing? lol

18Z will certainly clear it up! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

18Z next Wednesday!

[Bob Chill]

My expectations for the first week of March are tempered by the lack of qpf on the ensembles.  I don't have access to the tools some of you have, but the GEFS and GEFS look like most systems would give us well less than 1" of qpf, whether it falls as rain or snow.  We could get a nice moderate event, but  don't see much of a signal in the ensembles for something more.

 

EPS is about .5 - .6 for d10-15. That's pretty good. Things get real muddy out in time on the ensembles. You'll almost never see big qpf d10-15 like you do d5-10 on any ensemble because there is never enough agreement.