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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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Not as strong this run.  Moisture still from Columbia to Raleigh and east w/ cold 850's but 2m temps look terrible.

It starts cranking around hr 105 but 2m temps are still questionable.

 

Just going verbatim on GFS, it looks like steady precip would get the thermals in order and cool the column to wet snow - 33 at sfc and below freezing aloft.  Sounding is at green dot on map (near Greenville, NC)

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Just going verbatim on GFS, it looks like steady precip would get the thermals in order and cool the column to wet snow - 33 at sfc and below freezing aloft.  Sounding is at green dot on map (near Greenville, NC)

 

Thanks grit!  For eastern NC they might have enough precip to get the thermals where they need them but around the RDU area it could be tough.  Still time for this to change some.  I'm interested but not yet excited...LOL!

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NavGem old nogaps whatever they call it now days is gonna make history when the euro comes out in 40 mins and agrees with it. Seriously the new euro that's getting ready to replace the current one is the one to watch this afternoon.

 

The NAVGEM also gives the Snowtowns of the East (DC & BOS) a good hit, which makes it believable.  :lmao:

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Unfortunately the 2m temps are too warm for accumulating snow per the Canadian but hopefully this will change.

I think given the precip rates involved and temps aloft, i think that is in error. canadian, regardless of it's snow maps, is probably big hit for coastal areas..especially if the heaviest precip is the slightest of degree further northwest.

 

the 12z canadian is really depressing...showing a  cutoff upper low going right through the southeast and not a flake or drop of precip with it until it's too far east for us to the west.

 

 

gem_z500_vort_us_16.png

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Looks to me like a lot of the GFS ensemble members are further west. A couple of major A-bombs mixed in.

 

Absolutely.

 

(Comparison of the 00z vs. 06z runs)

 

2re44et.gif

 

 

I think the NAVGEM should remain "Classified" (see pic).  It's too dangerous to be released into the hands of us die-hard snow fans.

 

You aren't kidding, haha.  I really didn't need to see it, myself.  The chances of that happening are a fraction of a percent, but what has been seen cannot be unseen. :lol:

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Euro is a little more positive...upstream kicker wave is farther northeast.  Trying to get going late....not far off of last run, maybe a little east

 

It looks like it closed off pretty early, in OK this run.  Why is this storm in a general sense not picking up the gulf moisture when it moves east?  Is it because the trough is not negative tilt until it's too far east?  Models seem pretty clear this is a eastern NC storm if at all, but I'm curious on the mechanism on why this energy isn't pushing overrunning precipitation earlier. 

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