FallsLake Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Yeah , we are going to be in here anyway might as well have some fun. I mean that is why we all do this right??? Exactly! As the great JB says: "Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Where is the best energy located for explosive development? Is the shortwave responsible for spinning up the system well sampled right now? How about the kicker behind it? Stop. I'm not as well-versed in model studying like a lot of folks on here are, and I've never claimed to be. That's why I'm here. If I knew everything, I'd have my own website and get paid big bucks to forecast for major energy companies. I do know that we've had a consistent trend in the WRONG direction. Could it be wrong by a hundred miles? SURE. Is the energy properly sampled? NO. But it will be at 12z/0z. I know when we were three days out from the 1/22 system, we KNEW there was going to be a storm and we KNEW precip would fall in the areas it ended up falling. With this system, we're not even getting green on the models where folks want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 The thing the models hard having hard time with is the S/Ws There are two main players that just came ashore. The southern stream is starting to dig but the main player is how the northern stream. This is really going to be the main player. How much NS energy dives into the southern stream. There is alot of vorticies in the NS. In order to get the UL to close and tilt neg need pretty much a full phase with NS . The models just arent showing alot of engery flowing into the southern stream. The main NS player is highlighted. It could be DOA or Just a timing issue on the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 I know when we were three days out from the 1/22 system, we KNEW there was going to be a storm and we KNEW precip would fall in the areas it ended up falling. With this system, we're not even getting green on the models where folks want snow. People were jumping like flees 3 days before that event. This is an entirely different setup and a quick bomb out on the coast could change the entire trajectory. You could very well be correct in your thinking, but it isn't time to throw in the towel just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z NAM is really digging that energy in Central Texas at hour 42. Let's see where she goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z NAM is really digging that energy in Central Texas at hour 42. Let's see where she goes! Yep almost down to the GOM at hr 48. That is a good sign as it appears to be around 100 miles S of the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 12z NAM is really digging that energy in Central Texas at hour 42. Let's see where she goes! Just saw that. I'm out to hour 45 and you can see a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Stop. I'm not as well-versed in model studying like a lot of folks on here are, and I've never claimed to be. That's why I'm here. If I knew everything, I'd have my own website and get paid big bucks to forecast for major energy companies. I do know that we've had a consistent trend in the WRONG direction. Could it be wrong by a hundred miles? SURE. Is the energy properly sampled? NO. But it will be at 12z/0z. I know when we were three days out from the 1/22 system, we KNEW there was going to be a storm and we KNEW precip would fall in the areas it ended up falling. With this system, we're not even getting green on the models where folks want snow. I'm not trying to be smart. Seriously, I'm throwing these questions out there to illustrate that there is uncertainty here. It's not like I necessarily know all of the answers either. With the last storm, there was NO WAY we weren't going to get precipitation. The trends in the track/development of the storm mattered as to the eventual type of precipitation that fell. I'm not seriously convinced that we're going to get a big snowstorm out of this, but how many times do we have to see the models not correctly model the location, track, and strength of a storm 4 or more days out, especially in such a complex pattern, before we realize that at this lead, there are plenty of valid scenarios still on the table. My gut instinct is that this will end up closer to the coast than currently shown. How far? What does it mean for Raleigh? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Trough goes neg tilt at hr 60 on the 12z NAM as it reaches WNC. That should begin to pull moisture ashore. Solid trend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 @ hr 66 H5 cuts off over GA/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 @ hr 66 H5 cuts off over GA/SC.A cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Gonna slide too far east. Better than the last run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Too far off the coast not going to cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 @ hr 66 H5 cuts off over GA/SC. I'm at 66 as well. Definitely closer to the coast/west. Not sure where this is going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Trough goes neg tilt at hr 60 on the 12z NAM as it reaches WNC. That should begin to pull moisture ashore. Solid trend here. Rapid moistening at H7 @ 60 off of Jax Fl.. H7 low over SAV. @ 66. Taken literal Snow for Waycross along 95 up in SC to Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Congrats Charleston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Trough goes neg tilt at hr 60 on the 12z NAM as it reaches WNC. That should begin to pull moisture ashore. Solid trend here.5H struggled to capture the 850mb low and thus doesn't pull precip as far into coast. Wow the way that was looking I thought someone was going to get hammered but it is almost like there is a wall setup on the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks like that northern stream vort is a tick north as well, which can't hurt. Decent run of the "typically over-amped past 60hr" NAM you guys! (just being funny there, not serious) You're welcome. Reverse psychology works every time. Hope you E NC guys get something out of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 We'll be able to smell the snow on this one, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 May not be there yet. But this has potential: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Coastal SC gets absolutely smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 4, 2016 Author Share Posted February 4, 2016 May not be there yet. But this has potential: Getting closer. Still a little further west and time for it to come back even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Gonna slide too far east. Better than the last run though. all hail the NW trend.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Rapid moistening at H7 @ 60 off of Jax Fl.. H7 low over SAV. @ 66. Taken literal Snow for Waycross along 95 up in SC to Wilmington. Here's the biggie. In Jan 2000 you watch the sat loop you had a big pivot that delivered the goods. This run of the nam as trough goes negative you never get a pivot. That would throw the moisture back inland. I'm just reading pbp and really need to see a loop, but you need a strong pivot to get the moisture back inland after the phase and neg tilt of the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Might have to surprise the family with a trip to Myrtle Beach. Of course I wouldn't tell them about the storm beforehand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Hay CR, that GEM could maybe work out for us.... little sleet.. All in for some sleet! Just no more ZR. all hail the NW trend.....? You know it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 From hr 72 to hr 78 on the 12z nam, the low pretty much sits in the same spot and deepens from 1007mb to 993mb. Someone will get smoked. It might be the fishes, but I would think that some landlover will cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Coastal SC gets absolutely smoked. Yeah Rain. Looking on Twisterdatas point and click soundings. Its a torch below 925 starting off and procceding under the sim radar. There is dynamic cooling taking place aloft. Well R to Snow. Sounding west of MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 A few reasons why I'm optimistic with this set up: The models have been consistent about one thing: an absolutely silly amount of energy for the cut off to form. We aren't going to have the "ehh energy is too strung out" problem here. Another point- Death. Taxes. NW trend. It's a given with every storm, people on the R/S line for past storms can attest. Don't know why it happens meteorologically, but if I were to take a guess, so many factors have to be "right" for a shortwave to dig so deep", that if any one of these factors was modeled incorrectly, the most likely error would be bringing the energy too far south, thus a NW trend. That has no peer-reviewed backing so take that with a grain of salt. 3. We haven't had a strong system that'll give the region a 32-33 degree cement layer in a long time. This will truly be driven by rates in some cases. You could argue the late February system was like this too, but with that system. It was just a 10 hour band of heavy rates really. There was a defined R/S line, no situation where it was lightly raining i Raleigh while puking snow in Fayetteville. Now this is a pretty textbook case of the gamblers fallacy, but it's all I have left . It was around this timeframe a few weeks ago when people were punting the blizzard around these parts. I wouldn't be so pessimistic just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 4, 2016 Share Posted February 4, 2016 Looks to me like it is too warm for snow on the NAM. I do not see anyone getting smoked with anything other than our friend cold rain. Anyone care to elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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