packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The Euro really bombs the low compared to the 00z run, though (966 mb compared to 983 mb at hr 120). The precip field is definitely a bit further west and it's slower. The GFS really slowed down the low as it started to bomb. Could be fun times for someone who gets under the heavy returns for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 What does it show in the way of precip/snow for Eastern NC. I have no precip maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 It looks like it closed off pretty early, in OK this run. Why is this storm in a general sense not picking up the gulf moisture when it moves east? Is it because the trough is not negative tilt until it's too far east? Models seem pretty clear this is a eastern NC storm if at all, but I'm curious on the mechanism on why this energy isn't pushing overrunning precipitation earlier. There's a clean sweep of the moisture after today's front...so behind that, it really dries out when looking at 700mb. So when our wave approaches, there's no return moisture flow...it's mainly dynamically driven precip on the NW side of the sfc and mid-level lows...so yes, we would want to see it close off / be stronger / and more negative tilt...and do all that quicker, to see more precip inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 The 12z JMA has come west a decent amount compared to yesterday. Nice hit for many........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2016 Author Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro still too far east, but it has come west a bit. Everything else is coming more west. Trends have been positive today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arandall Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro still too far east, but it has come west a bit. Everything else is coming more west. Trends have been positive today. In terms of NC, seems like precip will be more limited to SE of I-95, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Any snow for ILM or MYB area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Any snow for ILM or MYB area. Euro clown map does have a bullet west of MYR, snow for the grand strand verbatim , no snow for ENC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro clown map does have a bullet west of MYR, snow for the grand strand verbatim , no snow for ENC How does that happen? lol Wilmington, NC has a hard time getting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Brad Panovich @wxbrad 3m3 minutes ago 2:39pm ET: Tornado warning for Columbia, SC take shelter now Southside of town. #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Huh, Myrtle beach may get an inch or 2 possibly huh? I took off Sunday night for the super bowl! Let's see if I can kill 2 birds with one stone You just might. Windy driving rainstorm kills your power. No snow, no super bowl. Both birds killed with one wet stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Hahaha! That would be our luck. Cold rain and no power for the game. If Buffalo Wild Wings or hooters has a generator, they will be making bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Man if the euro is right on how it bombs out this storm and it can set the fireworks or process off about 3 to 6 hours sooner some folks in NC are going to be shoveling out with a bulldozer. Those are cat 2 to cat 3 pressures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Man if the euro is right on how it bombs out this storm and it can set the fireworks or process off about 3 to 6 hours sooner some folks in NC are going to be shoveling out with a bulldozer. Those are cat 2 to cat 3 pressures Euro always does this about 4-5 days out. The day of, the storm will probably be 20mb higher than what it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Eps is east Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Most of the individual members are further NW of the ENS Mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Most of the individual members are further NW of the ENS Mean That's encouraging. Can you compare to the 0z run? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 That's encouraging. Can you compare to the 0z run? Thanks! In comparison to 00z, members are certainly further west for the most part. Also a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 In comparison to 00z, members are certainly further west for the most part. Also a little slower. Excellent! Do any of the members have pressures as low as the op run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Excellent! Do any of the members have pressures as low as the op run? Most are 970s - 980s off the NC Coast. A few 960s once it begins to head away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Most are 970s - 980s off the NC Coast. A few 960s once it begins to head away Counted 10 members that had 6"+ snow falling somewhere in NC or SC (verbatim). Had 4 at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Most are 970s - 980s off the NC Coast. A few 960s once it begins to head away Wow! Very impressive with the strength. Could be in record territory for our latitudes if it verifies. Thanks for the report! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Here's where the 18z NAM ended up. Negative tilt, but not closed. Not sure where it might go from here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Here's where the 18z NAM ended up. Negative tilt, but not closed. Not sure where it might go from here: Here's 850 temps: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160203+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model And simulated radar: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160203+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Here's 850 temps: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160203+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model And simulated radar: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=sim_radar&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160203+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Soundings support snow in the Columbia, SC area per 18z NAM and it's not even cut off at 500mb by hour 84. This is before the storm really gets going.. and not sure much more moisture would make it... but I would guess so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 18z GFS not gonna look too great. Positive tilt.. nothing like 18z NAM by hour 84. We need a more neutral to negative a bit quicker than what's showing. By 93 she is going out to sea. (1012mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I wouldn't get too discouraged yet but 18z gfs is pretty supressed... right where we want it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I wouldn't get too discouraged yet but 18z gfs is pretty supressed... right where we want it? The lack of cold should be the biggest concern, then precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Soundings support snow in the Columbia, SC area per 18z NAM and it's not even cut off at 500mb by hour 84. This is before the storm really gets going.. and not sure much more moisture would make it... but I would guess so. Yep. The only layer that is a problem is the actual surface temps which start out warm but freezing/wetbulb zero heights are so low that rain would change to snow fairly quickly and temps at the surface would quickly fall...likely faster than being shown. It seems a like a fairly good bet right now there is a good chance of seeing snow/change to snow from the midlands to the coast if there is precipitation and it's not suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 18z gfs way east of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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