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Brick Tamland

Feb 7 Winter Storm

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To answer yalls question go back and read my comments a couple pages back but yes. Overall about 75-90 miles off coast.

 

Like I commented earlier about the cluster of storms near Jax Fl they have sat there all day combine with the fact of the main frontgenesis is been in the same area . Now the upper low coming into play is giving life to the situation.  The last hour or so of radar. Pay attention to the rain bands along the coast. You can clearly see the features but. But notice the line. Thats the surface trough axis. 

 

 

First image from earlier today and morning.

 

 

But the SLP is staying off shore how far the moisture gets in a diff ?? 

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18z 13km GFS, sure wish I could see thickness to determine how the SN flag came up with this. This looks extremely marginal, rain to maybe a mix and then back to rain.

3e416b983dcfb2dcba20ccd7e0525235.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Like I commented earlier about the cluster of storms near Jax Fl they have sat there all day combine with the fact of the main frontgenesis is been in the same area . Now the upper low coming into play is giving life to the situation. The last hour or so of radar. Pay attention to the rain bands along the coast. You can clearly see the features but. But notice the line. Thats the surface trough axis.

I was just noticing this very same thing.

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I'm clearly hallucinating but doesn't it look theres a comma head coming off jacksonville?  :weenie:

 

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_serc.gif

 

H7 is stepping up to the plate followed by h8 and h5

 

 

But yeah pretty on par. Now things should be cooling aloft and with more precip shield.

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18z 13km GFS, sure wish I could see thickness to determine how the SN flag came up with this. This looks extremely marginal, rain to maybe a mix and then back to rain.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I may be mistaken but I thought the OP GFS is the 13km GFS now? It was replaced with the upgrade? In that case you definitely have thickness...the OP GFS on WxBell is the 13km.

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I may be mistaken but I thought the OP GFS is the 13km GFS now? It was replaced with the upgrade? In that case you definitely have thickness...the OP GFS on WxBell is the 13km.

You are correct Jon. I am using the Model Center and there does appear to be a resolution dif on the GFS snow map, vs the 13km graphic I posted above.

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KCAE updated their discussion saying no Winter Weather Advisory and observations and RAP/HRRR modeling keeping the moisture East.

 

Fwiw.

Madonna's "Borderline" has been the theme of this winter and with little support beyond the Nam/French model this seems like the right call, I guess. I'm still hoping for some token flakes. 

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Madonna's "Borderline" has been the theme of this winter and with little support beyond the Nam/French model this seems like the right call, I guess. I'm still hoping for some token flakes. 

 18z ARPEGE even shifting precip East.  Same with NAM for us.  For others, it may be better.

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KCAE updated their discussion saying no Winter Weather Advisory and observations and RAP/HRRR modeling keeping the moisture East.

 

Fwiw.

That's not exactly what they said.....  ;) 

CAE....

SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORTED THE MODEL FORECAST OF INTENSIFYING LOW

PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT. WATER

VAPOR IMAGERY TRENDS INDICATED A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A

BAROCLINIC LEAF WAS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RADAR DISPLAYED

RAIN MOVING INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF THE FORECAST

AREA. WET-BULB COOLING WAS HELPING SUPPORT A LITTLE SLEET IN SOME

SECTIONS AT THE ONSET.

THE MODELS DIFFER IN REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF SURFACE

LOW PRESSURE BY MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS THE LOW CLOSEST TO THE

COAST..BUT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE

LOW FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE THE BACK

EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD SETS UP LATE TONIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE

CURRENT OBSERVATION ARE INDICATING...WHICH WOULD MEAN WE SHOULD

BE STARTING TONIGHT OFF A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE.

THE MODELS WERE CONSISTENT KEEPING THE SURFACE ABOVE FREEZING

THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTENING THROUGH THE COLUMN DOES OCCUR...BUT

AS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS COOL DOWN...THERE BECOMES

SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE WITHIN THE SNOW

GROWTH REGION OF THE PROFILE. THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER WITH PLENTY

OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS BEGIN TO DRY THE

PROFILE OUT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS

DISCREPANCY LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEANED MORE

TOWARDS THE GFS/SREF/RAP SOLUTIONS OF MARGINAL MOISTURE IN THE

SNOW REGION. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW MIXTURE POTENTIAL LATE

TONIGHT. STILL THINKING THERE MAY BE A BRIEF CHANGE TO A MIXTURE

OF RAIN AND SNOW BEGINNING AROUND 08Z. THE GREATEST CONCERN WOULD

BE IF DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW RESULTS IN

STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF MORE

SIGNIFICANT SNOW DEVELOPING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT SCENARIO

AT THIS TIME. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH SURFACE

TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AND SOIL/ROAD TEMPS WILL BE QUITE

WARM AS WELL MINIMIZING IMPACTS. WPC STILL KEEPS ANY SIGNIFICANT

SNOW OUT OF THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. STILL...A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT DEPENDING UPON HOW CONDITIONS

DEVELOP.

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This is why the SREF continues to be amped up, thank the ARW (red). 5 members hugging the coast at 21z 

 

EbZXiSt.gif

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