Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Paging Shawn. Please report to the rocket. Oh, hey! ARPEGE looks like it held on to more snow for interior SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Via Facebook public domain Brad Panovich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It's sleeting in MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 UL development over TN/MS/AR. If this is where the new 500mb ULL manifests.. it will be around 50 miles NW of where the 12z NAM showed it popping and 2-3 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Oh, hey! ARPEGE looks like it held on to more snow for interior SC. I have to say that so far it is doing a better job with the precip over ga. For a few runs now the french has shown precip the furthest west/northwest over ga starting this afternoon and right now it matches up pretty well. The Gfs on the other hand for several runs has shown nothing this afternoon and is too far east with the initial precip later on. Even the last few runs of the nam shows barely a drop by late afternoon and mainly further east. We'll see what, if anything, this means in the long run but at least right now it's winning. This is going to be a great test overall since there are some pretty clear differences between it/the nam and the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It's sleeting in MBY I was wondering if that was a possibility despite the warm surface temps. Temps are cold in the mid levels and dry in the low levels. I've seen it before with surface temps like this. Back in the 90s after reaching a high in the freaking upper 50s early in the afternoon, it started sleeting at around 4pm with a temp around 49/50 and it started to snow by around 7 or 8..and over all got 3 or 4 inches that night. I don't know what the dewpoints were but they had to be pretty dang low as temps went from 49/50 to the upper 30s in a couple of hours. I remember it well because I had never seen sleet with temps that warm before and was absolutely amazed by it. To this day i still haven't seen it repeated...which is why i've been watching those showers just to the south of me wondering if it was possible...so am really happy to see you report it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This is a bit weenieish, but it is not too unusual to see the precip shield be more expansive than modeled with these storms. Surely, areas NW of our areas benefit from this all the time. DC benefits from it, etc. Maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't, but it might be something to watch, especially with the moisture firing off in S/C GA right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I have to say that so far it is doing a better job with the precip over ga. For a few runs now the french has shown precip the furthest west/northwest over ga starting this afternoon and right now it matches up pretty well. The Gfs on the other hand for several runs has shown nothing this afternoon and is too far east with the initial precip later on. Even the last few runs of the nam shows barely a drop by late afternoon and mainly further east. We'll see what, if anything, this means in the long run but at least right now it's winning. This is going to be a great test overall since there are some pretty clear differences between it/the nam and the rest of the guidance. Our local office is very cautious with their discussion even with the latest update and it sounds like they are watching current trends as we are. I'd say reading the discussion, the confidence sounds extremely low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrandonInSC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Our local office is very cautious with their discussion even with the latest update and it sounds like they are watching current trends as we are. I'd say reading the discussion, the confidence sounds extremely low. The lastest AFD was excellent imo. They mentioned all the features currently being monitored and why they are choosing the forecast they have chosen while cautiously alluding that there is a slight chance for something more impactful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18z NAM initialized the 5H in the correct current position per mesoanalysis so let see what it does, my guess is more to the west see higher precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Thats true though. One thing Ive noticed on radar is the H7 low is starting to develop and pull moisture north into S. GA. So will be interesting if it blossoms. Then how far north the h5 pulls it N?! http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=tlh&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes This is a bit weenieish, but it is not too unusual to see the precip shield be more expansive than modeled with these storms. Surely, areas NW of our areas benefit from this all the time. DC benefits from it, etc. Maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't, but it might be something to watch, especially with the moisture firing off in S/C GA right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 nam looks good out to 12. precip further n and w into nc this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 precip gets just to the s of rdu then stops as it cranks offshore, so close. 12k and 4k nam both are more generous with precip and get it n and w of rdu. not sure if it has merit over the 32k nam though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro ENS looks good --- Mean is between Wilmington to Fayetteville, down into Florence (1-2" --- lots of disagreement on IND members where the band sets up there. Half split between flurries and an inch, while the other half has 3-6" (3 still have 6"+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 precip gets just to the s of rdu then stops as it cranks offshore, so close. 12k and 4k nam both are more generous with precip and get it n and w of rdu. not sure if it has merit over the 32k nam though. I'd put more faith in the 4k at this lead honestly. Splitting hairs really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18z NAM at 24 hours looks like RDU would be getting into the better returns. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=024ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_024_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160206+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 precip gets just to the s of rdu then stops as it cranks offshore, so close. 12k and 4k nam both are more generous with precip and get it n and w of rdu. not sure if it has merit over the 32k nam though.32km NAM uses grid spacing of 32 kilometers to extract data for equations while the 12km and 4km use 12 kilometers and 4 kilometers squares in their equations. So with the US gridded into smaller boxes, theoretically the 4km NAM is supposed to be most accurate since it uses more info to get its solution compared to the others.. but that does not always hold true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 precip gets just to the s of rdu then stops as it cranks offshore, so close. 12k and 4k nam both are more generous with precip and get it n and w of rdu. not sure if it has merit over the 32k nam though. Its pretty well hits a brick wall and stops qpf wise before pulling away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 CLT looking ok for a bit of a rain/snow mix from this per 18z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Please remember the AFD (Area Forecast Discussion) courtesy for others and only post a line or two instead of walls of text. Deleting images when quoting someone is also a plus. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Thats true though. One thing Ive noticed on radar is the H7 low is starting to develop and pull moisture north into S. GA. So will be interesting if it blossoms. Then how far north the h5 pulls it N?! http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=tlh&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Yeah, it will have to be watched, especially for those who are just NW of the progged precip shield, as is. nam looks good out to 12. precip further n and w into nc this run Unsurprisingly, the 4k NAM is following suit, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 984mb off the coast and deepening, just ridic. EDIT: 984mb to 970mb in 3 hrs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Please remember the AFD (Area Forecast Discussion) courtesy for others and only post a line or two instead of walls of text. Deleting images when quoting someone is also a plus. Thanks. I understand your concern but is it really that big of a problem unless people forget how to scroll down on a mouse? Wishing the S.C guys the best of luck, models seem to have a good handle as far as current obs go. Will be interesting to see how things pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Barring a miracle, the precipitation even on the the NAM/ARPEGE combo is slightly East of my area for the most part when it comes to the event being Wintry. Columbia looks like you might can squeak some out.. the SREF members are starting to come down for that area as of last run... KCAE WFO likes a line from CAE proper, East. To those to the West of Columbia, we want the low closer to the coast than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The 4 km NAM is insane with how it deepens the low: Hr 18: 1000 mb Hr 21: 997 mb Hr 24: 984 mb Hr 27: 970 mb Just a little windy off the coast and on the OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I understand your concern but is it really that big of a problem unless people forget how to scroll down on a mouse? Wishing the S.C guys the best of luck, models seem to have a good handle as far as current obs go. Will be interesting to see how things pan out.Kinda. For us on phones it's torture Just board etiquette to either bold areas of interest or just post what's interesting. No one is reading a wall of AFDs but it's no biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 May be creeping up on tropical storm force gusts in the Myrtle beach area. I'm still holding on to the dynamic cooling possibly giving us some flakes ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY. * WINDS...A STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE BY THE COAST DURING SUNDAY RESULTING IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Don't forget to pay close attention to the RGEM in this timeframe. It's been the best short range model over the past three winters in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 If ever there was a time to say this is going to be a nowcast event, this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I understand your concern but is it really that big of a problem unless people forget how to scroll down on a mouse? Wishing the S.C guys the best of luck, models seem to have a good handle as far as current obs go. Will be interesting to see how things pan out.it really clogs up the thread, especially on mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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