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Storm and Mood Snow Feb 8-11


TalcottWx

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some observations... may all be just noise:

 

0z NAM vs. 18z NAM perhaps a tick better at H5, you can see slightly better interaction with the midwest trough 12z-15z Monday, with slightly more elongated midlevel center... might just be noise

 

at 0z compared to SPC mesoanalysis: both 0z and 18z had SLP too far south, ~ 33N whereas SPC had low (at 0z and currently) closer to 34N... where it goes from there I'm not sure

 

 

maybe this is noise, but I think one key thing to nowcast, along with SLP position, is timing of interaction with trough over next 12 hours based on heights and shape of midlevel centers

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some observations... may all be just noise:

 

0z NAM vs. 18z NAM perhaps a tick better at H5, you can see slightly better interaction with the midwest trough 12z-15z Monday, with slightly more elongated midlevel center... might just be noise

 

at 0z compared to SPC mesoanalysis: both 0z and 18z had SLP too far south, ~ 33N whereas SPC had low (at 0z and currently) closer to 34N... where it goes from there I'm not sure

 

 

maybe this is noise, but I think one key thing to nowcast, along with SLP position, is timing of interaction with trough over next 12 hours based on heights and shape of midlevel centers

Almost like a tropical system off of the east coast...admiring it on sat., while we wait for it to get picked up by the trough......and as is the case with tropical systems, it will curl a hair too far east. 

:lol:

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Almost like a tropical system off of the east coast...admiring it on sat., while we wait for it to get picked up by the trough......and as is the case with tropical systems, it will curl a hair too far east. 

:lol:

 

 

We weenie out over tropical cyclones that hit 3 farms in rural mexico. Nothing wrong with admiring this one.

:lol:

Great minds, bro.

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some observations... may all be just noise:

0z NAM vs. 18z NAM perhaps a tick better at H5, you can see slightly better interaction with the midwest trough 12z-15z Monday, with slightly more elongated midlevel center... might just be noise

at 0z compared to SPC mesoanalysis: both 0z and 18z had SLP too far south, ~ 33N whereas SPC had low (at 0z and currently) closer to 34N... where it goes from there I'm not sure

maybe this is noise, but I think one key thing to nowcast, along with SLP position, is timing of interaction with trough over next 12 hours based on heights and shape of midlevel centers

I believe we wanted to see it further southeast at this point, as that se movement was happening on models as low got swung up by the trough. The further this goes NE, the further away from the trough it gets.
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SNOW RATIOS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 1 ACROSS THE AREA
INDICATING A DRY FLUFFY SNOW WHICH WILL EASILY BE BLOWN AROUND BY
THE WIND. BEST LIFT FOR SNOW PRODUCTION GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT... GENERALLY 2 INCHES OR LESS PER 6 HOUR
PERIOD. HOWEVER... OVER THE COARSE OF THE 24 HOUR EVENT SNOW
TOTALS WILL LIKELY REACH 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WHERE THERE WILL
BE A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER 6
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE HERE BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS WILL BE OVER A
LONG DURATION 24 HOUR PERIOD THUS ONLY AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA. THE WINTER STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE HEAVIER SNOW
AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING.

 

18 hrs to get to 6, so definitely mood snows the next couple days which I'm good with!

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Almost like a tropical system off of the east coast...admiring it on sat., while we wait for it to get picked up by the trough......and as is the case with tropical systems, it will curl a hair too far east. 

:lol:

 

Well folks need to remember it will have another diurnal max Monday before it undergoes extratropical transition.

 

Yeah lol... this may look so much better on the computer screen than out the window. 

 

We'll see. Barring mesoscale features like OES or coastal front, not sure how much room we have left for surprises.

There's actually fairly decent guidance consensus. 0z RGEM included. And it's a shade or 2 less than the Box map.

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Lot's of imagination going on here ... 

 

It's hard to argue with satellite and radar activity. As others have noted ... a smart due east trajectory has occurred over the last several hours per satellite, which is lucid in that nature.  Radar has also been shrinking away from the coast while showing difficulty in moving N within cold sector long range reflective returns.  

 

I'm not sure how these now-cast observations reconcile with which-ever previous model run, but it doesn't really appear good for much impact in SNE.  Granted, there are other mechanical features to track as others have also noted ... be it OES and unusually extended CCB terminus' and so forth.  

 

A more human critique for this system ... the trough et al.. it seems as though this whole series of affairs is fighting convention to the last breath, to ensure the greatest trough this season has to offer does as little as physically possible.  

 

Objectively ...It's interesting looking at this new NAM run, how all that trailing vorticity advection associated with the main amplitude is now also shooting unusually far E before turning N.  That seems to spare our region what folks want from this, too.  If the ridge over western N/A were further E and also more progressive, much more of this would make more "intuitive" fluid sense - at least on the surface.  As is, this trough is just doing the anomalous out-pace of the western ridge.  

 

One thing I am also noticing through all of this... there is an usually high number of wind barbs sporting two flags + wind velocity all over the place on the south and east aspect of this train-wreck of a deep trough.  That aspect alone sort of rings/hearkens back to March 2001 for me, where the "Miami rule" appeared to play a factor.  The heights in the Caribbean/ Gulf and adjacent Floridian skies are too high and thus... these events are drilling too much wind velocity around their southern flanks - it's a subtle factor but an important one when this happens. When the wind field is weaker prior to the trough arrival, it's more capable of generating more roll-out ridging ahead of its self - which feeds back in turning things more N.  But that incredible wind tube is blasting east out over the open Atlantic and foisting any cyclonic generation right along with it.  

 

March 2001 did curl back enough to clip CNE and some of eastern MA, but bias east of features in the flow is definitely related to compression in the flow in the deep SE.   One day perhaps I will be rewarded for this insight, but I'm not holding my breath :)   ... that's part of the problem with this.  

 

The other, as we spoke at length all week, is good old fashioned wave interference.  The N stream events are so powerful, they could have probably over-come that Miami fang-dangle and did at least something, but this current feature is taking the baroclinic fuel away from EC.   

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Really impressive on WV

9MsZJJt.gif

Impressive... Almost see an eye on the loop...like someone said before, about 100miles east of historic.. If only that sw in the lakes would pull it back and capture, cut off..if only congrats se ne, I ain't got notta this winter, just ain't breaking for western areas this year

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Lot's of imagination going on here ...

It's hard to argue with satellite and radar activity. As others have noted ... a smart due east trajectory has occurred over the last several hours per satellite, which is lucid in that nature. Radar has also been shrinking away from the coast while showing difficulty in moving N within cold sector long range reflective returns.

What the Sam hell are you talking about. It has been modeled for many runs now to swing hard east as the h5 low rounded up the trough. It was actually supposed to swing hard southeast.

You're imagining that models didn't show it well?

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Look at the signal for enhancement around scooterville.

image.gif

Look at the middle finger it's giving me in Newport. I've seen that one before. Rgem had the same. I'm thinking the consensus of around 4 inches works out here, and box busts high on the Nam oversteer,but we'll see how ragged things are on the periphery.

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