mreaves Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 SAT_ERG4_WVENH_ANI.gif Just wondering if this does it?? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Shes moving at a snails pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 SAT_ERG4_WVENH_ANI.gif Just wondering if this does it?? Euro has a great handle on this as it should. Euro snow map seems good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I do think if there's bust potential it's on higher amounts. I know not totally same, but 2013. Models way under did that too. We'll sit back and see I dunno - I don't see a whole lot of upside back this way to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Very easy to do in Tan lately lol amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I don't know, I think you're in a good spot. probably am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro has a great handle on this as it should. Euro snow map seems good. Euro and EPS now the most bullish of all guidance. I think it may have overcorrected west at 12z. The 18z RGEM/NAM/GFS seem to be in decent agreement. Also 15z SREF. Hard to go against that consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Seems like some people have snow envy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I do think if there's bust potential it's on higher amounts. I know not totally same, but 2013. Models way under did that too. We'll sit back and see2013 was a retro storm with tremendous east inflow at all levels. This has some east inflow at 700 and NE at 850. What exactly does an historic snowstorm have in common with current modeled event.Practically every snowstorm has an east inflow component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Euro and EPS now the most bullish of all guidance. I think it may have overcorrected west at 12z. The 18z RGEM/NAM/GFS seem to be in decent agreement. Also 15z SREF. Hard to go against that consensus?I'd hit the RGEM with good ratios. I won't however bet against the Euro in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 2013 was a retro storm with tremendous east inflow at all levels. This has some east inflow at 700 and NE at 850. What exactly does an historic snowstorm have in common with current modeled event.Practically every snowstorm has an east inflow component. Yeah the only comparable aspect is that both storms had a large circulation. In terms of actual u wind anomalies - this storm is pretty meh compared to some of the biggies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 SAT_ERG4_WVENH_ANI.gif Just wondering if this does it?? Probably. Bp down to 29.26" at the East Hatteras Buoy. Winds now 100 deg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I'd hit the RGEM with good ratios. I won't however bet against the Euro in this situation. Well - Euro has had pretty crummy run-to-run consistency. Just my observation, but sometimes the Euro can do funky things when it bounces a lot in one run - as opposed to when it locks into a solution and never really changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 To quote ginx. "save a horse," and y'all know the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Well - Euro has had pretty crummy run-to-run consistency. Just my observation, but sometimes the Euro can do funky things when it bounces a lot in one run - as opposed to when it locks into a solution and never really changes.it moved incrementally NW I didn't notice any bounce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 2013 was a retro storm with tremendous east inflow at all levels. This has some east inflow at 700 and NE at 850. What exactly does an historic snowstorm have in common with current modeled event.Practically every snowstorm has an east inflow component.Theres a downer thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Theres a downer thread? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 it moved incrementally NW I didn't notice any bounce From 00z to 12z? The Euro basically doubled QPF here in Connecticut (both your area and back here in Death Valley) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 SAT_ERG4_WVENH_ANI.gif Just wondering if this does it?? Wow,what a beautiful sight! To my untrained eye, it looks like it's moving due east with maybe a north wobble at the last frame. Looks OTS, but again untrained eye, lol-Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 From 00z to 12z? The Euro basically doubled QPF here in Connecticut (both your area and back here in Death Valley)that's an incremental change from .3 to .6, not like it went from .6 to 1.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 talk to ray, he said it. We'll see what verifies. No use beating it to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 Bouchard called for a slushy inch in BOS the night before. Quincy got 24"Bouchard reminds me a little of Mike Carey CBS Football Ref Advisor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Not sure if you can call it hype - but I think their forecast is probably overdone. Well, what I meant was an overdone forecast creates hype...but again, we'll see......I can fathom a positive bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 that's an incremental change from .3 to .6, not like it went from .6 to 1.2. lol - ok - both are a 100% increase. Definitely a big change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Bouchard reminds me a little of Mike Carey CBS Football Ref Advisor Lol. He has blown every call I have seen him make Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Well, what I meant was an overdone forecast creates hype...but again, we'll see......I can fathom a positive bust. Thoughts out here ? 4-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Bouchard reminds me a little of Mike Carey CBS Football Ref Advisor yea...wrong all the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 lol - ok - both are a 100% increase. Definitely a big change.I really like Phil's map my self Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 Bouchard reminds me a little of Mike Carey CBS Football Ref Advisor I will never forget when he was forecasting 8-16 inches for Cape Cod back during the January 2005 blizzard. The ole snow to Rain idea with us ending up with minimal snow remaining on the ground. He had the audacity to come on the air after snowfall reports had already been reported throughout Cape Cod to be in excess of 30 inches, and say that we ended up with 12-18. Even with the most recent storms of 6 inches and 12+ inches, he was calling for ~4 inches for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2016 Share Posted February 8, 2016 I've seen zero hype..... There is definite potential for serious hazards. I guess we should just forecast 2 inches and if you get 15 and blizzard conditions just shrug your shoulders and say "oh well" How about sticking to a winter storm warning for now? Jesus....no one said go a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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