weatherpruf Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Im impressed...an argument with legitmate points on both sides, no childish name calling, and agreement to disagree. Weekend rule? And folks like me who don't know what to think...PB seems to be saying this is not your typical IVT ( which when I hear IVT, I worry about it as much as chance of T storms in summer ) but another completely nonscientific factor is it seems at least for some parts, it is finding a way to snow this winter when it looked like a ratter, to quote Forky...and I think if you read between the lines even NWS is hinting at that. As for what some are pointing out here, I have seen March snows go to 5 inches on grass and almost nothing on pavement, I've also seen it snow lightly in cold temps for hours on end without much to show it. So right now I am just watching with the rest of you. Appreciate the analysis from all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Some very light snow Tuesday morning on the euro. Norlun looks very far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12zjma west Monday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Can't remember a single Norlun which didn't trend north. I am glad it is shown to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Pretty meh run on the euro the inv stays around DCA and we never get more then some very light snow Tuesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Pretty meh run on the euro the inv stays around DCA and we never get more then some very light snow Tuesday morning Do we trust the Euro? It has been terrible this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Can't remember a single Norlun which didn't trend north. I am glad it is shown to our south. Agree. It's something that we won't have a good handle on until 24 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 We end up with .10+ for a 3 day period so take it fwiw. Artic cold comes in Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 We end up with .10+ for a 3 day period so take it fwiw. Artic cold comes in Thursday morning Euro develops the 3rd storm but goes OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Do we trust the Euro? It has been terrible this winter. Ditto. Even the NAM has muscled it out all season. yea Euro is a long range model...yada yada, but if it can't get things right within 48 hours, it's as good as trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Ditto. Even the NAM has muscled it out all season. yea Euro is a long range model...yada yada, but if it can't get things right within 48 hours, it's as good as trash. Every model has been trash this winter until close to the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro looked like a step back from 00z for getting something more than an INVT. Looked like it wound up the off shore storm some more which doesn't let it get out of the way so heights can recover. So everything misses, blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Euro looked like a step back from 00z for getting something more than an INVT. Looked like it wound up the off shore storm some more which doesn't let it get out of the way so heights can recover. So everything misses, blah. The trough is still way down in the midatlantic. Way different than the other models. I remember when the Euro was really superior and use to grab storms 5 days in adavance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Every model has been trash this winter until close to the event Truth. Such a complicated set up. I have a feeling we won't come close to figuring this out until the RAP, HRR, and such are in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The trough is still way down in the midatlantic. Way different than the other models. I remember when the Euro was really superior and use to grab storms 5 days in adavance. I guess I'd chalk that up as another possible outcome. That run just sucked. It found the least impressive way to handle this whole scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Can't remember a single Norlun which didn't trend north. I am glad it is shown to our south. Last winter or the winter before a norlun event seemed a lock for NYC, every model showed it over the area til the morning of. Then the RGEM and Euro both came in and showed it over CNJ and that's where it ended up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Last winter or the winter before a norlun event seemed a lock for NYC, every model showed it over the area til the morning of. Then the RGEM and Euro both came in and showed it over CNJ and that's where it ended up It was last winter...and I'd really love to forget everything about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The CRAS is showing little to nothing still for the Miller B as the SE Coast low steals the show. Been showing this for days upon days now. I know this model isn't that good (tho it nailed the Boxing Day Storm) but since by 48 hrs it shows Eastern PA to NYC getting hammered, what is this model's "preferred range" or "wheelhouse"? At some point it has to come around and scoot the SE Coast low OTS as opposed to coming up the coast.......doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 JMA caving to the CRAS, lol. Wouldn't it be something if this was the once per year CRAS coup?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Every model has been trash this winter until close to the event NAM has outperformed GFS and Euro at-least slightly on several occasions from 48 hours and within. Then again GFS 'did' show yesterday's situation 8 or 9 days ago....but then backed off significantly for several days after...and then came back, what like within 24 hours. So it did have a sense. Unknown if same with Euro...haven't been watchin it too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This is the year for it, look at the nam everyone said no way for the blizzard. Come on CRAS score one. JMA caving to the CRAS, lol. Wouldn't it be something if this was the once per year CRAS coup?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 It was last winter...and I'd really love to forget everything about it. I did pretty well with that one for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 2mb's deeper and further SW then at 12z....at 24 hours this 'could' be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 2mb's deeper and further SW then at 12z....at 24 hours this 'could' be interesting. It's actually 6mb stronger, 12z had 995, 18z is 989 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 981 off Georgia coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Agree. It's something that we won't have a good handle on until 24 hrs out I'd say IVT we don't know where they will setup until 12 hours out. I'm not taking anything serious regarding the IVT until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 ^ could be right, i'm looking at low resolution...and on cellphone. either way, it's looking good. 6MB deeper from one run to the next would be shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The low still slides east for several frames on Sunday afternoon...like previous runs. Maybe it recovers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 980 still sitting off Georgia coast, this things even stronger than 12z, gonna be some impressive Sat images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Its out to sea again. Looks almost exactly like 12z except its stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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