UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 hr 27 low looks to be moving due east off SC coast. Not what you want to see for a coastal. Watch the norlun hr 30-48 Like I've been saying IMO the coastal is NOT happening, which is why I'd rather have this thing weaker and OTS, and allow the ULL to deepen and give us our snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Just FYI, at hour 24, going back at least 8 model runs, it's been up down up down up down, so it's about in that same area,waiting to see rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Was looking good in the early going. o well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Jeez, expect to see big hits, then some reversal followed by hit again can you translate please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 What?????????? This PBP is tragi-comic look for yourself. low off SC is diving east to due Se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 No change in location at hour 30 (6Z). Low is 2 mb higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 hr 36. low is just west of burmuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's GFS type east at 36. bad.. next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Lol and the 4K is west and slightly stronger through 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 safe to say storm 1 is a miss off the 0 z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I think the 12k nam just had a bug out run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 hr 36. low is just west of burmudaDon't mean your PBP . There were contradictory indications from several people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 It's GFS type east at 36. bad.. next run. The IVT is our best shot...this storm would need to come 200+ miles west within the next 24 hours to get good snows to anyone except LI AND NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Instead of reading the contradictions in PBP go watch the run for yourselves lol It's free http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016020700&fh=24&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Lol and the 4K is west and slightly stronger through 24 Its only like 10 miles west and 1 mb stronger. Will probably look like the 12k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That ESE jog the the low took on the NAM was very odd. The precip shield look like it was moving north at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The IVT is our best shot...this storm would need to come 200+ miles west within the next 24 hours to get good snows to anyone except LI AND NE yea, what a wacked run. Compare the first 12 hours with 18z and things looked good. Then the high just to the north weakened slightly compared to 18z run. Just this very minor weakness caused the bump eastward. Things can easily switch back next run or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Its only like 10 miles west and 1 mb stronger. Will probably look like the 12k nam Huh??? Through 30HR the 4K is 970mb, the 12k is 981.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This is what you all get for jumping on the NAM bandwagon after one "blind squirrel" moment in January. hoping the norlun signature is not gone in the next few frames. This storm was dead 3 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Interesting graphic Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Far eastern Long Island and Eastern NE get in on the initial wave, that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Terrible. We have to rely on the trough. Shame what did you expect? no model showed a hit really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Huh??? Through 30HR the 4K is 970mb, the 12k is 981.... My bad, I thought you were comparing it to the 18z 4k NAM. 4K is 10mb stronger but precip shield looks very similar to 12k through 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 My bad, I thought you were comparing it to the 18z 4k NAM. 4K is 10mb stronger but precip shield looks very similar to 12k through 36. No worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 hr 45 shows an upper level low diving to NC. Not liking the look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Looking at the models,this run seems to match the 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 toss this run for our area. hr 54 low of NC. nada for us unless you like flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Weird, 00z was east,18z was west,12z was east,06z was west,and 00z was east... Anyone explain that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 toss this run for our area. hr 54 low of NC. nada for us unless you like flurries surreal after the last 3 runs, was betting on this run of NAM to led the 0 Z pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 surreal after the last 3 runs, was betting on this run of NAM to led the 0 Z pack It did. Ending the threat, if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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