NycStormChaser Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 You should stop assuming. Wet snow doesn't mean non accumulating snow. It means that you're not going to get 6" of snow out of a half inch liquid. Isn't all snow wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Isn't all snow wet? Not really. Have you never seen snow that's so dry and powdery that you could push it away with a broom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 You should stop assuming. Wet snow doesn't mean non accumulating snow. It means that you're not going to get 6" of snow out of a half inch liquid. This is where you lose me and many others As modeled that`s 4 to 5 out of .5 What are you talking about You are missing what the model run showed you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 This is where you lose me and many others As modeled that`s 4 to 5 out of .5 What are you talking about You are missing what the model run showed you . Let's see what the soundings show when they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Isn't all snow wet? The winter of 13-14 was a prime example on how to have dry snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The winter of 13-14 was a prime example on how to have dry snow The blizzard in January was a very dry snow. My 22" compressed down to about a foot in a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Let's see what the soundings show when they come out. Only what it is showing 6 days out . Only as per model/ not a forecast. KNYC Hour 156 33/28 850 -2 925 - 3 .2 Hour 162 31/28 850 -3 925 -3 .2 .4 falls = 4 inches of snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Only what it is showing 6 days out . Only as per model/ not a forecast. KNYC Hour 156 33/28 850 -2 925 - 3 .2 Hour 162 31/28 850 -3 925 -3 .2 .4 falls = 4 inches of snow . You do realize that with 850's at -3 the best you're looking at is 6 or 7:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The blizzard in January was a very dry snow. My 22" compressed down to about a foot in a day.It was pretty dry here but nothing compared to those storms in 13-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GEFS are much snowier than last run fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 GEFS are much snowier than last run fwiw Wet snowier or dry snowier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 You do realize that with 850's at -3 the best you're looking at is 6 or 7:1? Well this would assume maximum vertical velocities are at 850 I think. Better method might be using the temperature at the level where the most lift is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Wet snowier or dry snowier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 In all seriousness tho many gefs members look like the ggem Seeing the snowfall prob on the gefs this far out, that bullish is a good sign imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Well this would assume maximum vertical velocities are at 850 I think. Better method might be using the temperature at the level where the most lift is. I'm fairly certain that if you're concerned about snow ratios 850mb is where you want to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Wet snowier or dry snowier? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'm fairly certain that if you're concerned about snow ratios 850mb is where you want to look. You're totally wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 You're totally wrong You are correct (and I know you know that, lol - this is for other folks) - ratios are mostly determined by snow crystal habit, which is driven by supersaturation levels in the dendritic growth zone, wherein supercooled water droplets nucleate as micro ice crystals on heterogeneous seed particles (dust usually) and then crystal growth on the initial ice crystals occurs via vapor phase deposition (where vapor condenses on the crystal surface and immediately freezes or goes directly from the vapor to the solid phase). The intial nucleation events of ice crystals only occurs when the temperature is <-10C and occurs more easily as the temperature is even colder (greater supercooling which drives the phase change, or nucleation, to form solid crystalis). This vapor phase deposiiton is a function of vapor supersaturation, which is a function of temperature (and pressure) and the vertical velocities that move relatively warm/saturated air up to cold zones where that vapor becomes supersaturated (and the liquid droplets become supercooled, leading to the nucleation - both processes are going on at the same time). Crystal growth occurs best around -15C and also is more efficent at reduced pressure, i.e., up around 500 millibars). With relatively high supersaturation one tends to get better dendrites (I don't know why that is, but I can tell you it has something to do with the Gibbs Free Energy associated with the thermodynamic state of the crystal, which favors a particular crystal "habit"), which, upon reaching the ground "layer" better (think about the bulk density of popcorn vs. almonds, where bulk density is a function of shape and the amount of trapped air) than poorly grown/shaped crystals, giving a greater bulk density (more snow depth per unit volume of liquid). Made a few edits from the original as I was writing this from a pharmaceutical crystallization perspective, overlaid with what I've learned over the past few years about snow microphysics, which is quite similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 You're totally wrong So where are we looking then? 700mb? Please enlighten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Eps has the mean just inside the benchmark. Indies are all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Eps are west and north of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Eps are west and north of the OP EPS/KNYC 4 " WET " inches on the mean 8 inches on the control More N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The spread on the eps imo are scewed by extreme outliers.. Some take the system west of buffalo, others 600 miles offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 You guys can argue all you want about a day 5+ model run and as to whether or not it shows wet snow, a mix or rain. It's going to be gone next run. Again well said. I cant believe so far out that people are even giving any credence to snowmaps given the flip flops and marginal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Lock us up for e51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Who the heck cares if its a wet snow or a dry snow 5+ days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 . Looks better for coast and interior. All win scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That first wave Monday misses south again on gfs too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The PV attack might be leading to some of the models picking up on Greenland blocking for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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