NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 At the same time though it now appears the Euro is gonna go down in flames Monday, it caved today to the GFS and CMC on the NNE snow event that it showed no semblance of til then. It definitely has ran hot and cold At the same time - doesn't the GFS handle northern stream features better then southern stream ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 At the same time though it now appears the Euro is gonna go down in flames Monday, it caved today to the GFS and CMC on the NNE snow event that it showed no semblance of til then. It definitely has ran hot and cold People only see what they want to see. They will flock to whatever models show the most desirable outcome. The same people promoting that the Euro scores the best will be the same ones bashing it when it shows rain lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 This graphic includes whatever falls on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 At the same time - doesn't the GFS handle northern stream features better then southern stream ? Sometimes, but it was a bit surprising to see the Euro miss what is basically a SWFE, even beyond 120 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 People only see what they want to see. They will flock to whatever models show the most desirable outcome. The same people promoting that the Euro scores the best will be the same ones bashing it when it shows rain lol. So you locking in the GFS at day 7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 So you locking in the GFS at day 7? LOL He posted the JMA which was a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 LOL He posted the JMA which was a snowstorm. It's not a inland runner at all on the GFS just poorly timed with the cold air. We don't get much until the CCB takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 So you locking in the GFS at day 7?Not at all. I'm simply stating that we have no reason to favor one solution over another right now.People are humping the Euro because it's the snowiest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 LOL He posted the JMA which was a snowstorm. The JMA was just to add to the potential of a storm. Who can tell anything else based on those graphics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Not taking any model runs seriously at this point in time, especially with solution divergence and no real consensus. We are a week out and things will change. Model runs are interesting to see and I mentality note them, but that is it. I will wait until the weekend at the earliest to either get excited or sound the bell for the snow funeral. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It's not a inland runner at all on the GFS just poorly timed with the cold air. We don't get much until the CCB takes over.It's several different waves of LP which flood the mid levels with warm air. You're putting way to much emphasis on the trailing SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It's several different waves of LP which flood the mid levels with warm air. You're putting way to much emphasis on the trailing SLP. No. It's a dual structure low like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Everyone failed to mention that the 18Z GFS shows blocking developing over Greenland - that is one reason the storm is being forced further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Everyone failed to mention that the 18Z GFS shows blocking developing over Greenland - that is one reason the storm is being forced further east Because it blows up the Monday wave as a 50/50 like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 No. It's a dual structure low like the euro.That's the same thing just worded differently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The JMA was just to add to the potential of a storm. Who can tell anything else based on those graphics? Well if you just took one more step and checked the 850s you would have seen it was snow . However we told everyone here today when the higher skill score models showed a snowstorm to take with a grain of salt. The number 3 model is showing rain and you are jumping all over it like it's a 3 day forecast. You are missing the vortex through the lakes which is modeled stronger on the Euro , PARA ,EPS and the UKMET ( and the JMA) . The WAR is weaker on all of the above and there is HP draped over the top. The better skill score models are not on the rain train and my advice to you is get off . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 That's the same thing just worded differently You said several diff lows that isn't what the GFS shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 You said several diff lows that isn't what the GFS shows You can tell the GFS is BS by how it hop scotches the low center around by hundreds of miles down south early on..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The GFS was a great track just need to work on temps and the GFS often does horrible with temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I don't agree with yanks that often lol... But in his defense, he hasn't really said he's calling this as a rain storm, he's just reporting what the model showed.. We ALL want snow, idc what yanks admits to but he wants it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Gefs is further east than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Well if you just took one more step and checked the 850s you would have seen it was snow . However we told everyone here today when the higher skill score models showed a snowstorm to take with a grain of salt. The number 3 model is showing rain and you are jumping all over it like it's a 3 day forecast. You are missing the vortex through the lakes which is modeled stronger on the Euro , PARA ,EPS and the UKMET ( and the JMA) . The WAR is weaker on all of the above and there is HP draped over the top. The better skill score models are not on the rain train and my advice to you is get off . You're really bastardizing the intent of that that post which simply said storm threat and nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I don't agree with yanks that often lol... But in his defense, he hasn't really said he's calling this as a rain storm, he's just reporting what the model showed.. We ALL want snow, idc what yanks admits to but he wants it toI don't agree with the model hugging that takes place every time one major model shows snow and the other shows rain. People love to dismiss undesirable outcomes. I can remember plenty of people tossing the Euro recently. Let's also not forget how bad it was with the blizzard last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I don't agree with the model hugging that takes place every time one major model shows snow and the other shows rain. People love to dismiss undesirable outcomes. I can remember plenty of people tossing the Euro recently. Let's also not forget how bad it was with the blizzard last year. Can you explain why you think the euro is wrong in what it is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Wondering if all the pieces of energy don't consolidate into one big storm. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Can you explain why you think the euro is wrong in what it is showing?It could be the typical Euro bias of holding too much energy back. For the record, I never said the Euro was wrong or the GFS was correct. I said I didn't like how quickly people dismiss the model that doesn't show snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Everyone failed to mention that the 18Z GFS shows blocking developing over Greenland - that is one reason the storm is being forced further east There is no blocking over greenland dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 It could be the typical Euro bias of holding too much energy back. For the record, I never said the Euro was wrong or the GFS was correct. I said I didn't like how quickly people dismiss the model that doesn't show snow.I stated yesterday and maintain today that I would like to be just N and W of the city for this one . Now that could always change and being 7 days out I cant say for sure exactly who gets what. ... This may end up a bit unfavorable for me in Colts Neck or for those up on the NS of LI relative to the LHV but I did not dismiss it because I'm not the JP I am saying it doesn't look like a rain storm to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 There is no blocking over greenland dude. I give you what the Greenland block looks like dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I don't agree with the model hugging that takes place every time one major model shows snow and the other shows rain. People love to dismiss undesirable outcomes. I can remember plenty of people tossing the Euro recently. Let's also not forget how bad it was with the blizzard last year. Well said...also I don't recall a 5-7 day threat being discussed so vociferously. I mean weenie maps have been posted...even yesterday. You guys really must want this one. Odd since the event Monday which did some icing damage was barely discussed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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