Hailstorm Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Euro ensembles. In other news ,they really like the late February into early March for a MJO 8 blocking pattern. I am hoping this pattern verifies. eps_ao_12.png ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif Nice. Would like the AO to dip to -4 as that would be ideal. Can you please post the EPO graph too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 WPC clearly east of the GFS @ Day 7 Get this into Day 3 and we'll talk snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 WPC clearly east of the GFS @ Day 7 Get this into Day 3 and we'll talk snow. Did you happen to catch the 500mb vort graphic from the Euro? There's a sloppy phase around hr 162. This was close to a complete miss for us. A few hours sooner and it would have went West like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Parallel GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 For starters the PARA Euro has been highly unstable. It was terrible with the blizzard back in January. Secondly, I just went back and looked at the 00z Euro Para run and it barely has any measurable snow West of Long Island. It's a good run for New England and the east end, and an Eastern outlier at this point. Furthermore, we don't have the 12z run yet which could be completely different. The Para Euro has seemed to have a bit of a progressive bias to me with systems, it seems they may have tried to do something about the Euro wanting to overamp and over corrected it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The eps is pretty clear that it does NOT favor an inland runner like the gfs and ggem Agree. I was just looking at that, many more members off the coast this run vs inland as opposed to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Euro ensembles. In other news ,they really like the late February into early March for a MJO 8 blocking pattern. I am hoping this pattern verifies. eps_ao_12.png ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif Could this pattern yield a triple phased storm like March 1993? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Did you happen to catch the 500mb vort graphic from the Euro? There's a sloppy phase around hr 162. This was close to a complete miss for us. A few hours sooner and it would have went West like the GFS. Yeah, there are a lot of things that could go wrong. It almost reminds me of the Feb 2014 Blizzard. If that powerful shortwave in the Lakes isn't able to get involved at the perfect moment (not too early either, or you have a GFS redux) then it will completely screw things up. The ECMWF Para had that kind of solution last night. Late phase and more of a OTS track. We really want that ridge out west to be as amped as possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 IF we can just get a decent track with some fresh cold working in, the potential would be pretty high for this one. The models are already keying in on explosive upper level dynamics that would lead to a significant amount of moisture. My rule for now is that we'll have the "windshield wiper" effect going on for a few days, then by Sunday/Monday we should start to key in on whether or not this is the real deal and for what region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Gfs continues its rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The 18z GFS is a quick front end dump and then a super soaker. 2.50-3.50" of rain for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Gfs continues its rainstorm Your area actually gets 2-4" on the front end. Maybe 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Gfs tracks offshore, almost a perfect track but is very warm Track looks identical to euro based off the hard to see SV frames, I may be wrong.... Dude, the first low tracks way inland and pushes the mid-level warmth all the way up to NNE. The second system could track over Bermuda and it would still be rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Dude, the first low tracks way inland and pushes the mid-level warmth all the way up to NNE. The second system could track over Bermuda and it would still be rain here. Yes I can't tell on my phone, judging by the mslp frame map it looked offshore, would explain it then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It's better, I'm on my phone and can't tell with the SV maps.. The track of the low looks great? Why the warmth Because there is no mechanism to lock in the cold air so the WAA floods the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 That's secondary blows up and crushes NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Because there is no mechanism to lock in the cold air so the WAA floods the mid-levels. Same senario as this last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Yes I can't tell on my phone, judging by the mslp frame map it looked offshore, would explain it then You're referring to when the primary low finally moves through, which would indeed give the far interior a few more inches on the back end. This is total combined from all possible systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Same senario as this last week The high position is way better this time, I would think even eastern Long Island would see several inches of snow before a changeover in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 That's secondary blows up and crushes NNE There would definitely be an opportunity for a few inches at the very end of all this, assuming it played out verbatim, which is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The high position is way better this time, I would think even eastern Long Island would see several inches of snow before a changeover in that setup. I don't buy that, at least not given the current GFS depiction of the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Thank the mega nino for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Thank the mega nino for this one. Can't trust the GFS right now - its been inconsistent last couple of days - it has a very poor track record this far in advance of a storm and it is famous for messing up southern stream east coast systems - stick with Euro OP and EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Can't trust the GFS right now - its been inconsistent last couple of days - it has a very poor track record this far in advance of a storm and it is famous for messing up southern stream east coast systems - stick with Euro OP and EPS At the same time though it now appears the Euro is gonna go down in flames Monday, it caved today to the GFS and CMC on the NNE snow event that it showed no semblance of til then. It definitely has ran hot and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Can't trust the GFS right now - its been inconsistent last couple of days - it has a very poor track record this far in advance of a storm and it is famous for messing up southern stream east coast systems - stick with Euro OP and EPS When you compare the 00z EPS mean to the 12z EPS mean, the 12z run was actually way more amped up and further NW but nobody payed attention because it still showed a desirable outcome. 00z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 At the same time though it now appears the Euro is gonna go down in flames Monday, it caved today to the GFS and CMC on the NNE snow event that it showed no semblance of til then. It definitely has ran hot and cold The Euro has been no better this year than the GFS when it comes to storms. I know that the Euro always scores better overall, but that's because they account for all weather events, not just snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The Euro has been no better this year than the GFS when it comes to storms. I know that the Euro always scores better overall, but that's because they account for all weather events, not just snowstorms. Yeah I mention that often, I don't know why someone cannot break down the country into sectors over 96 hours preceeding an event and see what scores better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The 12z JMA had a nice storm signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 You're referring to when the primary low finally moves through, which would indeed give the far interior a few more inches on the back end. This is total combined from all possible systems. Wow 30" of snow for mt snow and Stratton. Honestly id take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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