Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 When is the last time the gfs has been right since a week out? One thing to note is if this turns put to be rain, perhaps spring is around the corner, this has happened before this time year when it rains instead of snows which were forecasted.. hoping for hot dry weather!! Regardless of what happens with the storm it appears we turn colder the end of next week into early March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 The GFS run just looks strange to me. You have a low cutting into a banana high moving down from Canada? You would think in that kind of setup, it would be a Miller B scenario.No, not at all. There is no Atlantic blocking . You have a +NAO, a 50/50 high and a strong WAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 At this point, it seems like having a big storm is almost certain. Just need to nail down track and don't think we will know with significant certainty until Sunday. Expect a lot of East vs West back and forth until then. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It does look like it is better for the interior,so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 GFS-Ens look nothin like the op, has a coastal hugger, still a bit warm for coast and immediate interior but 100+ miles get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Gefs weenie map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The problem with the GFS OP is the lack of high latitude blocking - need something to anchor the high to the north in place so it can't escape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Cmc ensembles are also a coastal storm not inland runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Cmc ensembles are also a coastal storm not inland runnerSeveral individual members show an inland storm. The mean is skewed by weaker/ots solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Gefs, appears to be east a bit? Hard to tell because the past few runs looked too be faster compared to this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 12z Gem,compared to the esembles, is west of last run, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Gefs, appears to be east a bit? Hard to tell because the past few runs looked too be faster compared to this run. just have to look at the 2M temps and you can tell its an inland runner - and then look at 500mb and there is little blocking at high latitudes - will blocking begin to show up on some of the models ? To be determined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 just have to look at the 2M temps and you can tell its an inland runner - and then look at 500mb and there is little blocking at high latitudes The spreads are all over the place, some are inland, some are coastal, some are Way faster and some are wayyyy slower... It serves no value in taking any run at this point for what it's worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 There is so much time still for current unknowns to surface. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 What are the MJO progs for next week? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The Euro is a big hit unless you live on LI. 986mb 75 miles SE of ACY. Main reason was a later phase. There's also an initial wave that runs out ahead of the main surface low like the GFS and GGEM show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Even coastal areas flip to snow on the backside. 982mb that passes over Cape Cod. Nearly a perfect track for the Western 2/3rds of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Well that ladies and gentlemen is how you could get a MECS in this pattern. SV maps have 4-8" for LI and 12-18" for the interior with NYC proper in the 8-12" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Most places are 1.50"+ LE on the Euro. UlsterCountySnowZ special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 ^^ sorry dude, didn't realize I was still in banter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 Most places are 1.50"+ LE on the Euro. UlsterCountySnowZ special.EPS should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The Euro is a big hit unless you live on LI. 986mb 75 miles SE of ACY. Main reason was a later phase. There's also an initial wave that runs out ahead of the main surface low like the GFS and GGEM show. does anyone have access to maps showing the hours inbetween on the Euro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 does anyone have access to maps showing the hours inbetween on the Euro ? Yea what hours you looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 between 168 and 192 - what does the storm track look like and the 850 temps ? Yea what hours you looking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 MAJOR improvements on this run for the NYC crew (as well as me) The ridge out west is much more amplified and lets the energy really dig into the south as the WAR backs away quicker, resulting in a near-perfect track for a major east coast storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Hi res euro is even snowier, crushes most of jersey, NNJ Hudson valley into CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 between 168 and 192 - what does the storm track look like and the 850 temps ? 168- all of Long Island is 0 for 850 174- 0 line pushes to nyc 180- NYC and points west drop to -1/-2 Long Island never goes below 0 Anyone north of the city is -2 / -6 depending on how far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 In Terms of track the low is about 75 miles east of ACY, and track northeast to the cape.. Perfect track for inland, almost perfect for city too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 168- all of Long Island is 0 for 850 174- 0 line pushes to nyc 180- NYC and points west drop to -1/-2 Long Island never goes below 0 Anyone north of the city is -2 / -6 depending on how far north more or less the strength of the +PNA is going to dictate the storm track because the blocking at the High Lats is not showing up - thanks for the hour by hour rundown - another nail biter that probably won't be resolved for many days.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The ensemble agreement on a major system this far out is very, very impressive. Keying in on the deep trough in the south as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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