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WxUSAF

January and #HECS2016 Banter Thread

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It would be nice, but the Mid-Atlantic has missed out in recent years. Even if NYC gets very little, this will be an amazing meteorological event. I'm happy to see Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, etc., finally getting a chance to cash in.

 

Thanks, Don.  It is indeed an amazing event...almost scary, to be honest, if it ends up even close to what some of the crazier totals that some of the model runs have been indicating.

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I think if anything, you should take away that there will be very heavy banding as the upper level low moves towards the coast. Where the heavy banding sets up remains in question. Keep in mind also that the GFS is not a small scale model so the coverage of the heavy banding is likely overdone. Tomorrow, the smaller scale, short range models will be useful in determining where it all sets up. My guess would be across northern VA into Montgomery/Frederick/Howard counties and obviously further to the west across the higher elevations

You didn't answer the question ;)

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At 11 Tom T. already said 12-24" and he said with the new guidance coming in he will probably have to up it in the morning.

Cool, Tom has stuck with that the whole time. I don't know if Tony called this on air but this afternoon on social media he was going 12-16" for Baltimore.

Edit:

I think he has been riding the RPM hard.

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it's good to see Chief Brody from Centreville is back.a few of us were worried about him earlier. He has a great, nasty sense of humor.I can't believe they changed the caps game from 7 to 5. The net result will be the same.

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it's good to see Chief Brody from Centreville is back.a few of us were worried about him earlier. He has a great, nasty sense of humor.I can't believe they changed the caps game from 7 to 5. The net result will be the same.

 

Pun intended??  :lmao:

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I wonder if a Met could comment whether or not the GFS run is even synoptically possible? Can we even get over 4 inches of qpf in a single winter storm?

Sure. It's probably a 500 year event but with climate change, a perky el nino, a full moon and Donald Trump anything is possible.

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I know,...I was referencing how all of us in DC/ARL/ALEX got over 1" and somehow DCA only reported 0.7"....Makes me nervous that they will blow the big one...

 

 

grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

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How do you make a forecast in NYC and Boston after that nam run?

 

 

honestly:  why would anyone here care?

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I live in a 2-story brick condo apartment building in Old Town Alexandria built in 1942. We have a flat roof. Do I need to worry about my roof collapsing?

 

I asked the same question, then found this article which may put you at ease a bit: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/20/how-much-snow-is-too-much-for-your-roof/

 

There's also the simple fact that a building built 70+ years ago has withstood big snow before just fine. The ridiculous wind Saturday may help clear it off roofs too (or build heavy drifts if there's an adjoining taller building).

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UKMET :o

 

From hrs 36 to 48, UKIE probably moves no more than 50-100 miles... looks like there's a capture as well

:o  :o  :o I'm thinking we are going to see that from Matt at about 1 a.m.

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That CONUS WV loop is just XXX weather porn. I hope those QPF predictions come to fruition for you guys; you'll need earth movers just like southern CT in '13. Congrats again. Post lots of pics.

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I live in a 2-story brick condo apartment building in Old Town Alexandria built in 1942. We have a flat roof. Do I need to worry about my roof collapsing?

There were just a few roof collapses after 2/5-6/10.That was 3"+ liquid for parts of the area, so I think most roofs are fine. 

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Seriously the "I'm so a'skeered" posts are getting ridiculous.  It's a snowstorm.  This isn't the 19th century.  Even if by some epic act of a higher being 3 feet falls area-wide, we'll all be snowed in for at most a few days.

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Seriously the "I'm so a'skeered" posts are getting ridiculous.  It's a snowstorm.  This isn't the 19th century.  Even if by some epic act of a higher being 3 feet falls area-wide, we'll all be snowed in for at most a few days.

The roof collapse concerns seem overdone to me, but potentially going several days without power and sub freezing temperatures is pretty insufferable to imagine.  And beginning to seem inevitable for some.  I would not discount the potential impacts here.

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