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Jan 23-24 Storm Banter


ORH_wxman

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I'm almost rooting for a whiff now after reading that article where AccuWeather spiked the football and said no less than 6 for ASH.

 

They'll probably be right, but it's not a lock if this scoots a little east.

Euro says you'se a fine motherf*cker won't you back dat ASH up.
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Yep, that's where I'm from. My dad said he buried a yard stick with room to spare, but couldn't get an exact measurement owing to the drifting. I was quite happy with my experience in Boston, but admit I almost lost it when I saw that band set up over the old homestead. That was something special.

So...that's over 36" OTG. Compaction is pretty extreme with that much snow. If measured in 6 hour increments that would be over 40".
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I remember 96 during the height, driving around in my first 4 wheel drive truck, snowing so hard that I could only navigate by the orange glow of the street lights, '78, '96, Jan '11, and the 2013 blizzard are the hardest I've ever seen it snow, I have to say that 96 was the most intense, only because I was out in it and could not see in front of your face! '93 and '03 are up there also, I'm sure I missed a couple. As far as the 80's, there was '82 &'83 and I remember I think 87-88 wasn't that bad a winter, storm wise, we had a couple good ones. Will, correct me on the years, I remember it was late 80's, cause I was in HS at the time.

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I remember 96 during the height, driving around in my first 4 wheel drive truck, snowing so hard that I could only navigate by the orange glow of the street lights, '78, '96, Jan '11, and the 2013 blizzard are the hardest I've ever seen it snow, I have to say that 96 was the most intense, only because I was out in it and could not see in front of your face! '93 and '03 are up there also, I'm sure I missed a couple. As far as the 80's, there was '82 &'83 and I remember I think 87-88 wasn't that bad a winter, storm wise, we had a couple good ones. Will, correct me on the years, I remember it was late 80's, cause I was in HS at the time.

Being out in it plowing I've seen quite a few bouts of heavy snow, still the two that stick out for me are Feb 13 and Feb 6 2001 atleast right here in my immediate area, some have come close but fall short... Obviously giving feb 13 the nod for number 1, it was just like a fog

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Being out in it plowing I've seen quite a few bouts of heavy snow, still the two that stick out for me are Feb 13 and Feb 6 2001 atleast right here in my immediate area, some have come close but fall short... Obviously giving feb 13 the nod for number 1, it was just like a fog

Feb 13 is definitely the most snow anyone has seen in SW CT. If that's not the max storm for a particular locale, it's because they didn't jack in the biggest storm that region has seen in recent times.
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If I am understanding the discussions as of the moment, it appears that PWM is kind of 'on the outside looking in' with this, just on the northern fringe of seeing some light accumulations. If there were to be any kind of 'northern bump/shift' with some of the heavier snows, when would one expect to start seeing that on the models and have some measure of confidence that a slightly more northern solution would occur?

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I would certainly be concerned north of pike. I would be concerned along pike. I could see south coast, cape, island, plymouth county blizzard while SNE has advisories. Just be prepared. Don't invest fully, hope for the best.

That's a fear out here with most coastal storms, unless they hug, so not worth sweating it, but many will.

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Anyone going to travel for this one? Since my house will be lucky to get over 6", I am thinking about travel options where I have friends and family. Any opinions?

Great Barrington area in the S.Berks near the CT border

New York City

Skillman, NJ, 5 miles west of Princeton NJ

Center City Philadelphia

Lancaster PA
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Lancaster PA

not an option, I want to hang with friends.  I think there is a big changeover risk in Philly and a big whiff risk in Great Barrington.  Princeton could work well....I will follow the trends and if it looks good for philly I will go there as it is my top choice, and it is cool to be in a city during a big storm.

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With respect to the QPF, the numbers being put up seem awfully high at this middle range. Maybe it's just my weenies goggles, but it seems like qpf modeling generally ramps up as you get closer to the event. Could these high numbers reflect the extraordinary moisture source in the STJ with the super Nino, along with the warmer than average ocean temps. Looks like a lot of latent heat wants to be transported poleward.

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