swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not clear at all NYC is getting a major blizzard....sounds like mixing and latest models are not all the impressive from what I see here....a decent snow is on the table at this point... Very bad analysis my neighbor even for banter. If your not impressed with the latest gfs or gem both showing a18-22" I'm not sure what will impress you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The euro as well at oz was substantially better bringing heavier qpf 60-70 miles north from the 12 z run. If you don't think models have trended significantly better and the greater nyc metro doesnt have s chance to see a secs/hecs storm I'm not sure we're looking at the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think the NYC metro is looking at a 6-12" storm with more to the SW. It could still trend either way though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wpc going with 1.75"-1.25" qpf from south to north for nyc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I agree with snowski that right now 6-12" would be a good forecast for nyc, actually prob 8-12" only because I always thought 6-12 had too big a spread and forecasters can adjust up or down as we get closer. This is agin a very fluid situation. Almost all models agree we see a very strong closed off h5 low. The question is how is the confluence after 78 hours and where does it go. These will be the difference in seeing 8" or 20" for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Why does DT keep saying the Euro only showed 6-7 inches for nyc/philly while the weenies here say it was over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Why does DT keep saying the Euro only showed 6-7 inches for nyc/philly while the weenies here say it was over a foot It depends on which map you use and also if it keeps everything as snow and where. It def raised qpf substantially for the whole subforum. Not to worry we still look forward to your light snow observation while the Ccb cranks over your head. I kid I kid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That is not uptons storm forecast. What do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I agree with snowski that right now 6-12" would be a good forecast for nyc, actually prob 8-12" only because I always thought 6-12 had too big a spread and forecasters can adjust up or down as we get closer. This is agin a very fluid situation. Almost all models agree we see a very strong closed off h5 low. The question is how is the confluence after 78 hours and where does it go. These will be the difference in seeing 8" or 20" for our area 6-12 is def a good call at this point. Need to get through12z before any upward adjustment (dont even want to think about lowering the call!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What do you mean? That is until 7 am saturday, which is why i deleted it from the discussion thread. Upton isnt going for 1-3", that map ends at the beginning of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Bx what are your current thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Why put out a map that goes to just 8am...that just confuses people who dont read the timestamp...make a map call for the full duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Why put out a map that goes to just 8am...that just confuses people who dont read the timestamp...make a map call for the full duration Probably NWS policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Why put out a map that goes to just 8am...that just confuses people who dont read the timestamp...make a map call for the full duration Because the end of the storm is still four days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 2010's ao/nao blocking was historic...this years is strong but not as strong as 2010...my guess is there is still time for this thing to come north on the models and in reality Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Praying for a north trend to have us inland folks cash in, but not too far north for you guys on the coast. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Why put out a map that goes to just 8am...that just confuses people who dont read the timestamp...make a map call for the full duration It's a 72 hour product. Always has been. It's not there to satisfy our weenie cravings. Was weird when last night's went to 7pm Saturday, which was a 96 hour forecast at that time. And omg, can people stop being captain obvious? I'm so glad I'm not a mod anymore. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's a 72 hour product. Always has been. It's not there to satisfy our weenie cravings. Was weird when last night's went to 7pm Saturday, which was a 96 hour forecast at that time. And omg, can people stop being captain obvious? I'm so glad I'm not a mod anymore. Holy crap. In the mods defense I didn't notice the time stamp at the bottom only extending until Saturday morning. Didn't have my coffee yet and I apologize lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Why is there a radio show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 In the mods defense I didn't notice the time stamp at the bottom only extending until Saturday morning. Didn't have my coffee yet and I apologize lol Dude, the two halves of my post were unrelated. My "omg" rant had nothing to do with you, at all. I won't say who it was mostly directed at because my momma always told me if I don't have something nice to say.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yessir! I lurk more than I post, but I've also been addicted to this enterprise for over a decade. Glad to see others sticking with it as well! Nowadays, you have to do quite a bit of sifting, but there are definitely some intelligent people here from whom you can learn a ton! Yeah, I've learned a lot over the last dozen years. The most important thing for me was finding that I'm not as crazy as I thought and that there are other insane people who love weather. After Bill Evans and TriState, I found WWBB, which really changed the game for me. That led me to Eastern, which was just becoming popular. And then I'm proud to say I was part of the team that helped create this site from that one. Was a crazy time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Why is there a radio show? You mean why was there? Because a historic snowstorm is on every model? Jfc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You mean why was there? Because a historic snowstorm is on every model? Jfc Big time jinx, you know this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Big time jinx, you know this! It's like talking about a no-hitter in the 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's like talking about a no-hitter in the 6th. Haha yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You mean why was there? Because a historic snowstorm is on every model? Jfc The storm goes to **** everytime there is a radio show. :cry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looking at Upton zone forecasts, orient has no rain issues while montauk does at this point and time. That's how close the wiggle room is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The storm goes to **** everytime there is a radio show. :cry: The euro gave the mid atlantic another monster run after the 12z was borderline shaftjob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The euro gave the mid atlantic another monster run after the 12z was borderline shaftjob. Cantore is coming to DC, so maybe better news for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's like talking about a no-hitter in the 6th. That's a fantastic analogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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