Morris Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Which pro mets are calling for weeks of arctic cold in February? Calling for cold enough weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Yeah, a more realistic average should be around 38" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Which pro mets are calling for weeks of arctic cold in February? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 ...more like, "Ma, the meatloaf!" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 26, 2016 Share Posted January 26, 2016 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Wow. Bye pv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I see no signs at all in the modeling that prolonged arctic cold locks in for February. It's most likely a roller coaster month with transient warm ups and cool downs. I don't see persistent Arctic cold Your call for below normal snowfall looks spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Your call for below normal snowfall looks spot on. For Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 I wouldn't be surprised to see another huge storm in February. Patterns like to repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Bye pv Just double checking. We don't want that in Alaska, correct? As depicted wouldn't that pump heights east of the Rockies? ...and freeze Europe? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Wait a min...or am I reading that incorrectly? Would that translate to a -EPO/-ao/west based -nao? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Bye pv https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/692069233740615681 https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/692039723318132737 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Classic. Very nice job on your forecast by the way. February is going to have plenty of fun and games. This is not a snow pack winter as evidenced by how fast the current snow is melting. So if we get a couple cutters and inland bombs that's just fine because I think we have at least three more 6+ storms for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Those are stratospheric heights not tropospheric heights. Having the pv not on our side of the globe promotes -epo and -ao. This would be called a displacement and not a split, although would likely still be beneficial to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Ahh ok. Glad I second guessed myself. Sounds like the same -EPO PB has been forecasting . Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Meteorologist from the weather channel committed suicide. RIP http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/weather-channel-meteorologist-death-ruled-suicide-article-1.2510187 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Classic. Very nice job on your forecast by the way. February is going to have plenty of fun and games. This is not a snow pack winter as evidenced by how fast the current snow is melting. So if we get a couple cutters and inland bombs that's just fine because I think we have at least three more 6+ storms for the coast Hey man , Thank you . It looks like a lot of the pack will be gone before it snows again . ( going faster than I orig thought ) The warm up although probably only 5 days may mean business . However the look in FEB overall at least from this distance looks good . 1st Jan 31 - Feb 4 look to be about plus 4 to me .( AG and I agree- I hope ) . Then the period could begin to take shape . Feb 5 - 20 look BN to me . I am not concerned with by how much but I am much more intrigued with the set up once again at 500 . Many are in love with the actual departures and N is not a bad thing but what`s more important to me is what we look at 500mb . The period should advertise a -EPO/+PNA/-AO regime again . There will be a trough in the means in the SE during the period and all it will take is another well timed vortex during a PNA spike and we are in the game. This year we have the potential to have more than just 1 big time event . Our best chances like to come at the back end of patterns so sometimes one just has to be patient . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Meteorologist from the weather channel committed suicide. RIP http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/weather-channel-meteorologist-death-ruled-suicide-article-1.2510187 Yeah I saw that earlier. Poor guy. I wonder what drove him to literally drive himself in to a wall. Terrible way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Hey man , Thank you . It looks like a lot of the pack will be gone before it snows again . ( going faster than I orig thought ) The warm up although probably only 5 days may mean business . However the look in FEB overall at least from this distance looks good . 1st Jan 31 - Feb 4 look to be about plus 4 to me .( AG and I agree- I hope ) . Then the period could begin to take shape . Feb 5 - 20 look BN to me . I am not concerned with by how much but I am much more intrigued with the set up once again at 500 . Many are in love with the actual departures and N is not a bad thing but what`s more important to me is what we look at 500mb . The period should advertise a -EPO/+PNA/-AO regime again . There will be a trough in the means in the SE during the period and all it will take is another well timed vortex during a PNA spike and we are in the game. This year we have the potential to have more than just 1 big time event . Our best chances like to come at the back end of patterns so sometimes one just has to be patient . Climo favors mid February for us too. Throw slightly below temps and all that energy in the southern get and things will go boom again That's right I'm calling it right now we have at least one more major event in the pipeline!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Climo favors mid February for us too. Throw slightly below temps and all that energy in the southern get and things will go boom again That's right I'm calling it right now we have at least one more major event in the pipeline!!! Sounds good! What would you call major in our new post 2000 climate? 12+? -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brooklyndude Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Pack taking a beating winters over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 The current torch is so much more enjoyable after we're already AN with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 winters over? It's January 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brooklyndude Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 It's January 27th Hello?? Was kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Hello?? Was kidding Hard to tell nowadays. People cancel winter all the time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brooklyndude Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Winter cancel uh oh!!! too much of a lull that what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 Surfers know some of the best waves of the year are often associated with winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27, 2016 Share Posted January 27, 2016 With what appears likely to be a minor or perhaps moderate stratospheric warming event in coming days, rumors of a sudden or major stratospheric warming may well ripple across Social Media and the Blogosphere. Such speculation should be taken with a large dose of caution, as it would be disconnected from the actual guidance. Data from the FU-Berlin site from the latest ECMWF guidance is below: The top chart shows stratospheric temperatures (°C) forecast at 120 hours, the forecast peak of the upcoming warming event. The data shows that the peak warming is limited largely to the top 5 mb of the atmosphere. Subsequent frames show a gradual cooling without a downward propagation of the warming that one typically witnesses during a significant or major warming event. The second chart shows the 10 mb and 30 mb temperatures relative to the 30-year mean. They briefly bump somewhat above the 30-year norm before cooling. For major warming events, one would expect to see both temperatures reach or exceed -30°C. The third chart shows the zonal wind. Neither the 10 mb nor 30 mb wind ever reverses direction. They don’t come close. Reversals are characteristic of significant stratospheric warming events. All said, at present the guidance shows a modest and short-lived warming that does not propagate downward. While there is still some possibility that the guidance could be incorrect as a five day timeframe pushes the limits of reliable stratospheric forecasting, the guidance is now moving close to a reliable forecast horizon. As a result, the probability of a large correction in the guidance toward a significant or major stratospheric warming event in the near-term is falling. For now, the guidance suggests that a minor or perhaps moderate non-propagating stratospheric warming event is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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