NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Could be a couple members went crazy...or its Jan 25 2000. I'm in until the end which may come tonight. You guys are in much better spot to see flakes especially NC west of 95.LOL but it was the sref at 400 pm the evening of the crusher that first coughed up the 20 inch totals and got fish on the air at 500 pm evening newscast warning folks raleigh was fixing to get the hammer dropped.Sure Brick will love my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 LOL but it was the sref at 400 pm the evening of the crusher that first coughed up the 20 inch totals and got fish on the air at 500 pm evening newscast warning folks raleigh was fixing to get the hammer dropped. Sure Brick will love my post He told us two days ago it was going to.be dry Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 What does your met common sense tell you on this one Jon?Can't really make much of it until I see how the HRRR and other SREF runs go after this one. But it seems like some of the 21z SREF members (arw) are too strong and amped up with very close coastal tracks, this is more than a best case scenario...but crazier things have happened so we will see. Not holding my breath on this one though. The SREF has screwed the pooch before as pointed out above, hard to trust it really until right up on the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I mean sref is 4 to 5 inches across good chunk of nc. Lollipop is 6 in western wake county. Apex of all places lol. HRRR has been looking like Gold at 5h everytime it runs. But no matter how good people say the cook is, don't beleive it until you get the first taste in your mouth. Layman's terms proceed with caution with the short range guidance. Maybe the HH ingested some info into models on last mission on the west tracking beleive it or not now x hurricane moving toward greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I mean sref is 4 to 5 inches across good chunk of nc. Lollipop is 6 in western wake county. Apex of all places lol. HRRR has been looking like Gold at 5h everytime it runs. But no matter how good people say the cook is, don't beleive it until you get the first taste in your mouth. Layman's terms proceed with caution with the short range guidance. Maybe the HH ingested some info into models on last mission on the west tracking beleive it or not now x hurricane moving toward greenland. How far west does it show accumulating snow? Thinking I'm to far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Do we even care about the 0z GFS and and Euro tonight at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 How far west does it show accumulating snow? Thinking I'm to far west?It's off the govt site and saw it posted on another board. I'd copy and paste but on my phone. Anyway it's 3 to 4 from west facing slopes to 85 then goes up to 5 with 6 Lollipop to 95, then zilch below 64 to coast but northern coastal plain gets 3 to 4. Has upstate in 3 inch shading. Suprised it's not been posted. It's a beaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's off the govt site and saw it posted on another board. I'd copy and paste but on my phone. Anyway it's 3 to 4 from west facing slopes to 85 then goes up to 5 with 6 Lollipop to 95, then zilch below 64 to coast but northern coastal plain gets 3 to 4. Has upstate in 3 inch shading. Suprised it's not been posted. It's a beaut. Ok, Thanks!!! Maybe somebody can get lucky and cash in (Brick)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Do we even care about the 0z GFS and and Euro tonight at this range? Not if we could cash in with the sref. But we know it doesn't work that way unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Do we even care about the 0z GFS and and Euro tonight at this range? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 . Yes. I get the GFS as we see 4 more runs, but the euro is only 2 more after tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Not if we could cash in with the sref. But we know it doesn't work that way unfortunately Just looked at the sref for MWK it's mean is around an inch. I guess that's was the latest run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 As stated above, the arw members are skewing the sref, only one nmm even remotely resembles what pretty much all the arw mems show with the 21z run. Not ready to jump on that train yet, 3z will likely return ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Ji, on 09 Feb 2014 - 6:03 PM, said: How do coastals work again? Very funny signature! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 . I get the GFS as we see 4 more runs, but the euro is only 2 more after tonight. True. But we won't get to the Euro. GFS will be here soon letting us all go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS = fail, south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS has a bit more QPF this run. Not much but something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS is about the same per- Robert-----Its the same for NC, lee side enhancement that band north of the main low is for NC, its because of lee side enhancement, and lee trough, and the 250 jet, Its the same for NC, lee side enhancement Theres going to be a separate band, in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 RGEM 00z has a pretty big north west shift. Its literally like as close to a low bombing as you can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS = fail, south My rule of thumb when forecasting is to disregard the models around 24-36 hours before the event. From the past, models seem to produce false trends. Looks like too much energy where the ridge should be for this to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Good grief. This event will be a memory in 48 hours and the models cant even settle on a solution for the next 36 hours. #winterfail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 GFS is about the same per- Robert-----Its the same for NC, lee side enhancement that band north of the main low is for NC, its because of lee side enhancement, and lee trough, and the 250 jet, Its the same for NC, lee side enhancement Theres going to be a separate band, in NC I'll take lee side enhancement any day ! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Just because the models don't show a phase doesn't mean it won't happen or things still won't end up better than shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I'm thinking I should drive up to wnc somewhere just east of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Good grief. This event will be a memory in 48 hours and the models cant even settle on a solution for the next 36 hours. #winterfail Models have been agreement for the last 24-36 hours. Just the strength remains the question and if the northern shield even reaches far enough to produce snow is the question. The jet is just horrible aloft and wont support a bombing out and the orientation and amplitude of the trough doesn't support it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Models have been agreement for the last 24-36 hours. Just the strength remains the question and if the northern shield even reaches far enough to produce snow is the question. The jet is just horrible aloft and wont support a bombing out and the orientation and amplitude of the trough doesn't support it either. Right and wrong. Strength is always a question up to the beginning of the event. No different here. The models have not been in agreement over the last 24 -36 hours. The king jumped north over 200 miles yesterday, the NAM fights itself on whether or not a storm even exists and the always spot on GFS keeps plugging away with the same solution like its no big deal. Just frustrating...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Models have been agreement for the last 24-36 hours. Just the strength remains the question and if the northern shield even reaches far enough to produce snow is the question. The jet is just horrible aloft and wont support a bombing out and the orientation and amplitude of the trough doesn't support it either. Apparently people choose to ignore your post. The orientation of the upper level winds is horrible for moisture transport. Expecting anything other than very light qpf is silly. Great post and it's spot on Great post , your points are dead on Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Right and wrong. Strength is always a question up to the beginning of the event. No different here. The models have not been in agreement over the last 24 -36 hours. The king jumped north over 200 miles yesterday, the NAM fights itself on whether or not a storm even exists and the always spot on GFS keeps plugging away with the same solution like its no big deal. Just frustrating...... I think the GFS will win out on this one only because its been so consistent last few runs, and that the others have pretty much caved to it is last 24-36 hrs. We shall see. We bout to the point now of looking out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I'm thinking I should drive up to wnc somewhere just east of the apps. Stay at the Biltmore and have some wine and cheese delivered to your room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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