superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think I am going to check out with the EPS member with a 987 mb LP just east of Cape Lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It still does not phase or am I looking at it wrong? It looks to me like its close to phasing but just not quite there yet on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It has some sub 990's going thru south ga! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 There must be a couple phased solutions on the members with the Northern/stronger ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The 12z EPS control run is a bit better than the op as far as the northward field of precip is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It still does not phase or am I looking at it wrong? It looks to me like its close to phasing but just not quite there yet on the EPS. There's some phasing going on in today's run, but it's weak. Probably what would help more than anything now is the southern wave speeding up more and getting out ahead of the weak northern energy dropping down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 It has some sub 990's going thru south ga! That sounds like a great Southern Slider in the making right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That member drops 3-4 inches of snow around raleigh and points west I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 GSP Discussion .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN FROM THETOP-DOWN ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...AS THE NEXT...MORE POTENTSOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTCONUS. WHILE THE BULK OF THE POSITIVE DPVA WILL PASS SOUTH OF THEWESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GA...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUESTO DEPICT A DEFORMATION ZONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THESOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...NEAR THE ENTRANCEREGION OF 150KT UPPER JET. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS WITHIN THISDEFORMATION AXIS CONTINUE TO APPEAR RATHER INTRIGUING...WITHNEAR-SATURATED AIR EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTALGROWTH REGION. IN THAT SENSE...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THATDETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT WETTER...WITH CONSENSUS QPFOF .05-.1 INCH INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN06Z AND 18Z SUNDAY. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE LATEST ENSEMBLEOUTPUT.POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO A SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE MTNS DURINGTHIS TIME FRAME...WHILE 30 POPS WILL BE RETAINED ACROSS THE PIEDMONTAND FOOTHILLS. IN TERMS OF P-TYPE...THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK STRICTLYLIKE A RAIN/SNOW ISSUE. A CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL MODEL THICKNESSPROGS AND ENSEMBLE P-TYPE PROBABILITIES LENDS LITTLE SUPPORT TO SNOWPOSSIBILITIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR...AND THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT NORTH. MEANWHILE...ALL-SNOWAPPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET ACROSS THE MTNS...WITH A RA/SN MIX ALONGTHE I-40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE MTNS. THE MTNS COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROMA DUSTING TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL...WITH PERHAPS UP TO A HALF INCHACROSS THE NORTHERN NC FOOTHILLS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLESNOWFALL IS STILL RATHER LOW...ESP OUTSIDE THE MTNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Could we get a surprise bomb? I'm looking out the window! It don't like much being there! But little is much if it don't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 The 12z EPS control run is a bit better than the op as far as the northward field of precip is concerned. James, can you post or send me the GSO bar graph from the EPS when it comes out in a bit? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Looking through the individual members now... there's a lot that would make a lot of us happy. This is my personal favorite (though it would not be good for eastern areas). James, can you post or send me the GSO bar graph from the EPS when it comes out in a bit? Thanks! Yeah, I think they're usually out around 4 PM. Will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Could we get a surprise bomb? I'm looking out the window! It don't like much being there! But little is much if it don't happen. I will be watching the RAP/mesoanalysis page regardless. My inner weenie will watch every slight interaction and tilt it makes until it's over! We should start comparing modeled hours vs real-time now that the energy is dropping down. See if there is any kind of trend in speed and strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It has some sub 990's going thru south ga! Big cluster of them, fact majority hug the GOM coastline or are inland: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 Nothing to see on the normally juiced up NAM. Is that weird??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The gfs did so poorly with this system that if the same thing occurred with the precip with this next one, we'd be talking about a much bigger deal. Ended up with well over an inch (with some a lot more) when the Gfs had something like a tenth or two in general today for quite a while before the most recent runs where it finally bought a clue. It's a shame that never happens when it's cold enough lol Yep, I got a inch and a half over the .1 Goofy was giving me via Meteostar Had plenty of rain around the low, and does for the weekend, but can't seem to move the shield out from the immediate convection with any intensity. All these models leave things to be desired, and putting all ones chips on any of them just doesn't work in active patterns. Split streams, blocking, multiple short waves..... it confuses the little darlings, lol. Based on18 inches for the last half of Dec. I'm thinking any gulf low is liable to drench my house, and I'm not backing away from that, whether it's showing suppressed, or not, lol. It may be cold rain, but there will likely be rain T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Meanwhile, the 18z NAM basically doesn't have a storm to speak of and has zilch for us all with a disorganized surface low crossing the Tampa Bay area. I guess we toss it and continue riding the EPS hype train for now. EDIT: Yeah, the SREF is awful, though that's not surprise given that the NAM was terrible. Also, the JMA took a sizable jog NW with this afternoon's run FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 15z SREF was not good either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The NAM doesnt even look close to EURo or GFS. What is it doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Watches & Warnings ... Light snow accumulations possible across parts of eastTennessee... southwest Virginia and southwest North Carolina lateSaturday night and Sunday morning...A storm system may bring light snowfall late Saturday night andSunday morning across parts of east Tennessee... southwest NorthCarolina... and southwest Virginia. Light snow will begin aftermidnight across southwest North Carolina... then spread north acrosseast Tennessee and southwest Virginia. The snowfall will generallybe east of Interstate 75.Snow accumulations of 1 to possibly 2 inches are expected acrossthe higher elevations of the far eastern Tennessee mountains.Snowfall of 1/2 to 1 inch are possible across northeast Tennesseeand southwest Virginia... including the Tri-Cities. Across theCentral Valley... including Knoxville and Morristown... snowaccumulations up to 1/2 inch are possible.The light snow will end or diminish by noon Sunday. The mainconcern will be areas of snow and ice covered roadways Sundaymorning... especially across bridges and overpasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Meanwhile, the 18z NAM basically doesn't have a storm to speak of and has zilch for us all with a disorganized surface low crossing the Tampa Bay area. I guess we toss it and continue riding the EPS hype train for now. EDIT: Yeah, the SREF is awful, though that's not surprise given that the NAM was terrible. Also, the JMA took a sizable jog NW with this afternoon's run FWIW. Looks better imo. More returns. It's getting there just a little slow to the party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What do the Temps looks like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What do the Temps looks like? Good for mountains/foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 What do the Temps looks like?Upper 30s/low 40s on the ground! Would be white rain, mixed with rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The NAM doesnt even look close to EURo or GFS. What is it doing? WPC says throw out the NAM ...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST......ENERGY REACHING THE GULF COAST STATES BY LATE SAT......SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/FL...PREFERENCE: NON-NAM CONSENSUSCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THEINTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLYSAT. THEREAFTER IT WILL EJECT ACROSS THE GULF COAST WHILEFOSTERING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULFOF MEXICO. THE GUIDANCE AGREES IN TAKING THIS LOW EAST ACROSS THECENTRAL FL PENINSULA EARLY SUN. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED A LITTLESTRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH ITS LOW TRACK AND IS NOW RATHERCLOSE TO THE 12Z UKMET SOLUTION. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS COLLECTIVELYARE JUST A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z CMCSOLUTIONS. THE 12Z NAM IS THE WEAKEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE ANDWILL BE DISCOUNTED. THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEANESSENTIALLY FAVORS A NON-NAM CONSENSUS...AND SO THIS WILL BE THEPREFERENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nomanslandva Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I am guessing the reflectivity maps show virga but QPF output does not. But, the hi res does show some more QPF in NC and SWVA than the regular NAM. Very very light though. I agree with others, it is odd to have the NAM as the driest model out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 12z para looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Upper 30s/low 40s on the ground! Would be white rain, mixed with rain How many times does it take. Cold air is just above surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 12z para looks better. Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 How many times does it take. Cold air is just above surface image.png Let me know how the snow looks on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.