dendrite Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Where do you get 950 temps? Just soundings? You can make any layer on the Plymouth vortex site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Where do you get 950 temps? Just soundings? Yeah skew-T is probably the best tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 950 temps are usually available on most soundings. Weather.cod is a good source for soundings now. I use 950 all the time, being in an area where boundary layer issues can happen. Even though the near srfc may be above 35-36F..If precip is heavy enough..all the factors Will described come into play. But you sort of live and die by heavier precip so confidence is not always high. I don't think boundary layer issues are at play really, N of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Levi's site for the 12z RGEM snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Weenie 3 spot over KTOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Weenie 3 spot over KTOL That looks close to Ginxy verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Will be nice to cover most of our BY with snow tomorrow. Maybe that helps to some degree with MLK storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Levi's site for the 12z RGEM snow totals Absolutely horrific across the Tug Hill region though?? 4" or does that mean 4', lol?? My bad, I see the orange color now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 that number is south of the lake band Absolutely horrific across the Tug Hill region though?? 4" or does that mean 4', lol?? My bad, I see the orange color now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Absolutely horrific across the Tug Hill region though?? 4" or does that mean 4', lol?? That area is not in a prime spot for this one, The primary does not provide very much snow, Its where the secondary forms and goes to town for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Actually some wetbulb potential too. That is, even if temps 35-37 or so to start, might be a quick flip to snow near BOS. Such low thicknesses too...really not that common to see and liquid with thicknesses below 528. Wet bulb zero just tickles 128 on the 12z NAM before collapsing back to the water anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Yeah skew-T is probably the best tool. Or have access to AWIPS... The image is the NAM 950 mb temp forecast 00z Wednesday, with the white lined overlay being the GFS forecast for the same time. You can see how close the NAM is to 128, while the GFS is more like 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS has a bad bias of being too warm in these for some reason. I think you can toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 GFS has a bad bias of being too warm in these for some reason. I think you can toss it. Used to be slam dunk take the NAM, but now you don't even know if that quite captures low levels anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro a bit less bullish. Still a decent look ORH east into NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro vortmax doesn't quite look as good as 00z IMHO...but it's a very small difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro a bit less bullish. Still a decent look ORH east into NE MA. Any chance you can determine start time as per the Euro? Late evening commute mess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Any chance you can determine start time as per the Euro? Late evening commute mess? Seems like after 4-5pm for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Euro a bit less bullish. Still a decent look ORH east into NE MA. SFC is backed pretty good at 00z over central and eastern areas, so that's gonna help I think. If we pop a little sfc low over SE MA, then I'd really watch for an enhanced period of S/S+ for a couple hours over E or NE MA. Euro is really close to doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Just noise. From here on out , ride the RGEM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Seems like after 4-5pm for you? Cool. Thanks. Won't really effect me either way (short drive, plus I commute usually around 3 or 3:30PM), but if it comes down heavy enough on 495 / Rte 3 it could be a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Any improvements back in the western areas of the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Any improvements back in the western areas of the region? Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 SFC is backed pretty good at 00z over central and eastern areas, so that's gonna help I think. If we pop a little sfc low over SE MA, then I'd really watch for an enhanced period of S/S+ for a couple hours over E or NE MA. Euro is really close to doing that. Yeah a lot of the good runs had more SE flow. Makes sense too. You want to be north of that little triple point where new low develops. I think I have an idea of what to expect anyways. A few hundreth of an inch of QPF won't really sway me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Any improvements back in the western areas of the region?Youre in a decent spot with elevation. Should be a few to 3 inches for you. Plows on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Let's go clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Youre in a decent spot with elevation. Should be a few to 3 inches for you. Plows on yeah I've decided that Im going to be getting the trucks ready. To much uncertainty not to. If we get 3 inches most of my accounts will need plowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Hard to trust the Nam on anything, From looking at the 12z RGEM it didn't look to bad for some further south, Pretty potent vortmax that develops right along the Maine coast Pretty. That nice 40-50 mm jack is centered about 15 miles NNE from my snowstake. Means that it won't actually be there, of course, but it's looking good for warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Pretty. That nice 40-50 mm jack is centered about 15 miles NNE from my snowstake. Means that it won't actually be there, of course, but it's looking good for warning criteria. A tic or two further south with the secondary would not hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Pretty. That nice 40-50 mm jack is centered about 15 miles NNE from my snowstake. Means that it won't actually be there, of course, but it's looking good for warning criteria. Looking good for warning criteria? Isn't that a bit of an understatement at 2" liquid? And is that a .4" bullseye right over Tolland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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