dryslot Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like we may end up right on the edge of the powder keg. Looking forward to at least a few flakes, hoping for a nice little surprise. Usually are on the edge of these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks a little bullish for SVT. NW Mass and CT is a little more compared to BOX. The 4km Nam is the only one showing those amounts I think in my area at least. Side note--nice little 3ft+ dump for the TUG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like borderline warning criteria here, though just a couple of hours difference in the explosion could swing the total by several inches. Be nice to correct this month's ridiculous snow-to-liquid ratio, currently running 1:23, with 0.1" snowfall and 2.33" rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Usually are on the edge of these congrats eastern/northern ME. I'm still bitter from yesterday. Give me some damn snow already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 In a snowless winter 1-3 inches is not meh. Minimum you get 1 Best action is north and elevated. You, Greenlawns, and Winsted guy may pull and inch but the valley below 300 ft. will be praying for a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Actually some wetbulb potential too. That is, even if temps 35-37 or so to start, might be a quick flip to snow near BOS. Such low thicknesses too...really not that common to see and liquid with thicknesses below 528. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 NAM looks like euro. Quick 1-2.5 or so in spots near and east of ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 12z NAM pretty bullish for central areas tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 WINDEX parameters are really high in this...LL moisture pools, we have really good instability, and really strong PVA....TTs reach 55+, so wouldn't be shocked if someone got thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 WINDEX parameters are really high in this...LL moisture pools, we have really good instability, and really strong PVA....TTs reach 55+, so wouldn't be shocked if someone got thunder. Yeah was just looking at the soundings. It's pretty much at least conditionally unstable regardless of something to help lift. You can see it blossoms when it gets further east ans taps into the warmer, more moist low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 There are going to be some quite surprised posts on here tomorrow evening mostly from those calling it meh and thinking little to none. I'm excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 WINDEX parameters are really high in this...LL moisture pools, we have really good instability, and really strong PVA....TTs reach 55+, so wouldn't be shocked if someone got thunder. My kind of day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Yeah was just looking at the soundings. It's pretty much at least conditionally unstable regardless of something to help lift. You can see it blossoms when it gets further east ans taps into the warmer, more moist low levels. Here is the ORH sounding tomorrow at 00z...that screams heavy snow even if only for a brief time. We even have the best lift lined up int he SG region (omega not seen there obviously, but max has been between about 750-800mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 There are going to be some quite surprised posts on here tomorrow evening mostly from those calling it meh and thinking little to none. I'm excited Maybe you get 1-2. It just starts getting going at your longitude. I'd be more excited for Will and points NE. That's always been the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Here is the ORH sounding tomorrow at 00z...that screams heavy snow even if only for a brief time. We even have the best lift lined up int he SG region (omega not seen there obviously, but max has been between about 750-800mb) Yeah a lot of the soundings are similar. Just looking at it today for work. Even if it only went to town for an hour, it becomes an impact for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Actually some wetbulb potential too. That is, even if temps 35-37 or so to start, might be a quick flip to snow near BOS. Such low thicknesses too...really not that common to see and liquid with thicknesses below 528. Yea, that's what I'm expecting. Marginal areas do a quick flip, as just above the surface is quite cold. Should see sub freezing air quickly mix down as the precip picks up in intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Even in BOS, the 950mb temps are below 0C on the NAM soundings...that would be probably a few drops flash-flipping to S+ when that band rolls in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Even in BOS, the 950mb temps are below 0C on the NAM soundings...that would be probably a few drops flash-flipping to S+ when that band rolls in. I know. It's a bit colder. Verbatim, that is pretty much snow. The earlier runs were warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Windsexy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Maybe you get 1-2. It just starts getting going at your longitude. I'd be more excited for Will and points NE. Tha t's always been the case. Exactly ,no one's arguing about dynamics. Most of Connecticut gets a quick burst of snow and than dry slotted. Probably start as rain or mix in southern and eastern areas and possibly along the valley floor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Look at those lapse rates on the soundings...around 7C/KM...that's going to be unstable in a moist environment. So it won't take much to get some heavier bursts I don't think. The key though is the vortmax....you want it south to give really good PVA and good lapse rates...further north will create a more stable sounding in SNE and also reduce lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Exactly ,no one's arguing about dynamics. Most of Connecticut gets a quick burst of snow and than dry slotted. Probably start as rain or mix in southern and eastern areas and possibly along the valley floor. It's pretty cold for you. You guys don't get the moderating influence of the Atlantic. If it barely moderates Boston, I wouldn't worry. I think the question for you is how quickly it gets its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Maybe you get 1-2. It just starts getting going at your longitude. I'd be more excited for Will and points NE. That's always been the case. And I've said best areas for 3-4 are north of ORH..1-3 covers south of 1-90, because there will be some 2+ amounts in places south of that interstate. But Hunch could get 4 to near Watchusett Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan 3m 3 minutes ago A burst of snow expected Tuesday later afternoon/evening -especially in the hills. NE CT could pick up 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Evening commute might be fun If I get 2" that more than doubles my seasonal total. 2011-12 still safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Evening commute might be fun If I get 2" that more than doubles my seasonal total. 2011-12 still safe If the 4km NAM is right I could see a spot 3" amount above 1kft in NE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Evening commute might be fun If I get 2" that more than doubles my seasonal total. 2011-12 still safe It's hard to believe no-one south of the NH border has seen accumulating snow on Jan 11..Maybe the Berks or something, but the rest of us have all sleet. That's disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 It's hard to believe no-one south of the NH border has seen accumulating snow on Jan 11..Maybe the Berks or something, but the rest of us have all sleet. That's disgusting Most have seen snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Most have seen snow. I forgot about the Ocean event. Well other than that ..the rest have not. I don't think even Hunch has..that has accumulated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 And I've said best areas for 3-4 are north of ORH..1-3 covers south of 1-90, because there will be some 2+ amounts in places south of that interstate. But Hunch could get 4 to near Watchusett Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan 3m 3 minutes ago A burst of snow expected Tuesday later afternoon/evening -especially in the hills. NE CT could pick up 2" I guess the difference is that I don't think a lot of areas get to 3-4. It's not worth getting excited 4-5 days out with a system that has an upside of an inch or so more than predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 Hard to trust the Nam on anything, From looking at the 12z RGEM it didn't look to bad for some further south, Pretty potent vortmax that develops right along the Maine coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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