powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Looks good for Mitch's place in SVT Yeah that's been a hot spot on the models the past few days. They do really good in these types of clippers that mix with some lake moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 HRRR is fun to look at but very non significant until like 6 hours out probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I like when folks are high fiving with still partly cloudy conds.... Give me my moment... As Dendrite pointed out we have 200-300% higher snow than was seen late last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 HRRR is fun to look at but very non significant until like 6 hours out probably. As useful as the NAM at any range, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Looks like a west shift with the heaviest access on the 12z RGEM as it gets LP going a tic or two sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 12z RGEM...pretty similar to previous runs. edit: got beat re-edit...gonna put it back up since the above image is a hotlink and will show summer thunderstorms in 5 months: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 13z HRRR total precip through 4z tonight: hrrr_t_precip_neng_16.png RAP not a ton different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Love the Rgem. Very consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 13z HRRR total precip through 4z tonight: hrrr_t_precip_neng_16.png That's awe-inspiring. BOX seems to be a fan of western MA; no one here seems to agree. Or maybe it's just because no one lives here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That's awe-inspiring. BOX seems to be a fan of western MA; no one here seems to agree. Or maybe it's just because no one lives here. W of the valley should do ok...the CT valley itself isn't looking so hot...but maybe up toward hippy it will be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 That's awe-inspiring. BOX seems to be a fan of western MA; no one here seems to agree. Or maybe it's just because no one lives here. I think its that. Most here are focused on the high-impacts of 1-3" in eastern Mass at rush hour. Which is definitely legit. I think you'll do fine overall with a few inches, similar to S.VT in some ways. The best will be closer to the Berkshire crest though and up the Southern Green highlands. I think you'll do fine relatively speaking with a backed southeast flow in the low levels and SW flow aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Maine jack of course and it seems like it's been ages. That's just weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 What is the radar telling us so far? Looks like a heavy narrow band forming (connected to lake effect off Ontario?) and moving east almost into VT while precip blossoms in sNY. Looks to me to be getting going and developing pretty quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 12z RGEM...pretty similar to previous runs. edit: got beat re-edit...gonna put it back up since the above image is a hotlink and will show summer thunderstorms in 5 months: I fixed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I fixed it Thanks...hotlinks are a pet peeve of mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Thanks...hotlinks are a pet peeve of mine. Well really should not link direct to any page really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Some of those models look like a darn squall line as it moves offshore...lol. Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 RGEM hints at the second burst in the early AM hours, similar to nam, particularly for CMA, NECT. Seems to be associated with h7 vort... not sure how much moisture will be leftover by that time, but could be a brief, blustery, fluff topper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Some of those models look like a darn squall line as it moves offshore...lol. Man. Well we do have TTs around 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Looks like a west shift with the heaviest access on the 12z RGEM as it gets LP going a tic or two sooner SN_000-048_0000.gif Sweet. Why did NWS have to mess with their website so much? Trying to look at probabilistic snowfall and all you get now is a small little pop-up map. I want a more detailed one like we used to have. Has it moved again? http://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 Sweet. Why did NWS have to mess with their website so much? Trying to look at probabilistic snowfall and all you get now is a small little pop-up map. I want a more detailed one like we used to have. Has it moved again? http://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter Try this one, http://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Well we do have TTs around 60. I know..lol. But it's impressive to see as modeled. I'll be at home, so it may be kitchen sink of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Try this one, http://www.weather.gov/gyx/winter.php that's a bit better, thanks. I think I am going to try the new 3D visual map overlays. Have you seen those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Looks good for Mitch's place in SVT Maybe 3-4" up there, while I get 1", 2" if lucky. Yeah that's been a hot spot on the models the past few days. They do really good in these types of clippers that mix with some lake moisture. And whenever there's an east to southeast flow. The nearest mesonet personal weather station had 2.2" of rain on Sunday while DDH and AQW had 0.58 and 0.83" respectively. There was a very strong shadow along US 7 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 that's a bit better, thanks. I think I am going to try the new 3D visual map overlays. Have you seen those? No, Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 No, Link? http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/forecasts/ Apparently the file that you downloads opens in google earth. I've not tried it yet, but looks cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2016 Author Share Posted January 12, 2016 http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/forecasts/ Apparently the file that you downloads opens in google earth. I've not tried it yet, but looks cool. I will have to check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 What is the radar telling us so far? Looks like a heavy narrow band forming (connected to lake effect off Ontario?) and moving east almost into VT while precip blossoms in sNY. Looks to me to be getting going and developing pretty quickly Correct me if I'm wrong......but I think the upstream radars will lessen as things develop to the east so there will be a sucker hole of sorts between those two points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Some of those models look like a darn squall line as it moves offshore...lol. Man. Some? 4k NAM, HRRR, RAP, RGEM... It looks even better than yesterday. 6pm-9pm for us. It looks to me as if it trended cooler at the surface too. The minute the snow starts to come down heavy... Flips. Paste. I know you weren't trying to down play but wow.. It almost looks like windex on roids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 As useful as the NAM at any range, lol. I like the 4k NAM in these type of events. Usually give some input. The bigger storms NAM seems to struggle with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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