No snow for you Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 In JB's video this AM, he seems to hint at a SSWE end of January beginning of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Euro just bombed a low off the coast at 120, can't tell if it is doing anything at the surface based on my maps Gives a general 1-3 for much of North Carolina Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 60's incoming, winter cancel. Yeah, I'm only at 10% of climo snow, and winters over! 200% my A@@! Next ( winter) See ya next winter then. No use in hanging around here if you think it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Gives a general 1-3 for much of North Carolina Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk That's not bad at all! From my limited imagery of the Euro, though, that 992 low N of the Great Lakes looks to be really limiting our cold air source: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Euro showing 1 to 2 of actual snow here. I'll take it. Last winter looked awful until Februay. We already had one winter storm. Might not have the 150% to 200% above average like some mets predicted. I think Allan Huffman and WxSouth even said 150% above normal for here. And based on the evidence of the pattern setting up and all the factors we had compared to what gave us a lot of winter storms in the past, that was a good call. Sometimes you can have all the potential and best players, but still get upset. Still, there is a whole month to go at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 It was last sun night monday 120 out the euro op locked in. Bout 120 out on Thursday. Will history repeat. Ensembles will tell the tale in a short while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 That's not bad at all! From my limited imagery of the Euro, though, that 992 low N of the Great Lakes looks to be really limiting our cold air source: Yeah but this run brought a northern piece of energy and phased it a little late . It's bad luck this will be such a late bloomer Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 For Asheville , maybe! Non- mountain areas, realistically , we have basically a month left. Yeah, y'all can throw around the best snows ever have been in March and March of 83, blah blah blah, but that's maybe 5 or 6 storms out of 120 years, I don't like those odds! If that April 1987 low had been a little father south we would have had snow down here with it. Birmingham AL got 9 inches of snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Perfect track on EPS, but low in Great Lakes not helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JacobNC Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 For Asheville , maybe! Non- mountain areas, realistically , we have basically a month left. Yeah, y'all can throw around the best snows ever have been in March and March of 83, blah blah blah, but that's maybe 5 or 6 storms out of 120 years, I don't like those odds! Raleigh got a foot of snow in early April once. And two inches in late April. I will not give up hope until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Guess my college and professional experience means nothing. Oh and I didn't say that it wasn't going to happen I was talking about trends. But this is a straight up cold front. So I will say with almost absolute confidence that charlotte won't see and winter precip. Whatever education and experience you may have means absolutely nothing when/if you use it the way you are using it on here. Even the most skilled, experienced, and respected meteorologists do not speak in absolutes the way you do. Some folks think it makes them look intelligent to make strong absolute statements. That's great until they prove to be wrong. My experience is that when someone attempts to prove how smart they are, they usually, very quickly, prove the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 It was last sun night monday 120 out the euro op locked in. Bout 120 out on Thursday. Will history repeat. Ensembles will tell the tale in a short while. It was at that point, that all of the sudden, folks that had said no winter weather for the next 10 or 12 days had to pause and reevaluate.Could it happen again? I think it is less likely, but I certainly would not rule it out. There will be a storm. It is going to be well positioned. Cold air is the question. Going to need a high strong enough and positioned in a way to deliver cold air over the snow pack to our NE. I would say it is unlikely, but we should know by now to take nothing for granted this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Good posts above, batman. Weather predication is a high-stakes game of uncertainty. We will continue to be surprised, in both good and bad ways. That's part of the fun, actually. If we knew exactly what was going to happen, there would be no need of this forum at all. One person could make a single post for each and every storm and fill everyone in on the details. No fun in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 GGEM isn't showing any snow for me for this upcoming storm. The GGEM did much better for me for this last storm than either the GFS or the Euro. Both of those models showed me several inches of fantasy snow and the GGEM showed me zilch. I ended up getting about .3 inch of freezing rain. Plus, we know how cold chasing moisture works out. Definitely not excited for this storm system yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 what day are we looking at for this potential nc storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Watched him on James Spann's weatherbrains a week or so ago; he's passionate and willing to go out on a limb with long range forecasts that many of the "haters" can't and won't do. Was interesting listening to him talk about his Son giving him grief for not responding to the haters; he said that doesn't matter and he does his job; he can't worry about what people say. I like his enthusiasm and character. To heck with the haters; some of the "mets" folks seem to "worship" are just arrogant blankety-blanks, downright rude, and wrong more times than Joe.. Liking Joe sticking to his long range prediction for this winter; sure hope it comes to fruition around ATL and other spots where folks have missed out so far. There's no denying the pattern appears to be resetting for Fab Feb just a matter of will it produce. Not giving up hope until Spring. I watched that show also! I noticed Spann seemed to want to down HIM for long range forecasting in a nice way! lol. I took it that way did you? I've been following him since I was a kid over 30 years, So yes I am kinda bias towards him. and will take up for him when need be. He don't always get it right but I dare say any other Met puts as much heart and soul in to trying to get it right as him!!! And the most in accurate statement every year is that he never admits to being wrong? that is completely faults!! I've seen him admit he missed the storm or missed the pattern or too fast etc.............. many times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WSNC Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 What a pattern flip from December torch. Not counting today's high of 29 which is about 16 BN, Greensboro is -2.8 for January. Beleive December was like +8 or something crazy off the charts. what day are we looking at for this potential nc storm?Thursday. Gulf low forms and rides up coast day after cold front comes through. Not a cold chasing moisture deal, but more of an issue with marginal cold air behind front and no high up north to set up cad. As others have said may trend colder with snowpack to north, but never confident for se if cold high not in place.BTW, this is what Euro/EPS is showing. GFS and GEM keep low and precipitation off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I think it's very possible (especially the eastern half of NC) could get some snow out of this storm coming late week! Euro Control is even more bullish on it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 18z GFS A few slight adjustments and a few in eastern NC could get a little snow out of this.. Keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 1031 high in the plains there, Frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 1899, please ................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 1031 high in the plains there, Frost.Money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I watched that show also! I noticed Spann seemed to want to down HIM for long range forecasting in a nice way! lol. I took it that way did you? I've been following him since I was a kid over 30 years, So yes I am kinda bias towards him. and will take up for him when need be. He don't always get it right but I dare say any other Met puts as much heart and soul in to trying to get it right as him!!! And the most in accurate statement every year is that he never admits to being wrong? that is completely faults!! I've seen him admit he missed the storm or missed the pattern or too fast etc.............. many times! I think he was ribbing Joe a bit; mostly because Joe does tend to go on and on. Spann's another good one; they both say if they get it wrong or missed something but they're different. Spann is more short and close to real-time ; Joe is long term. They both are good people which is getting rarer these days. Love the pattern recognition and references to the past; too many folks forget with weather there's a lot to draw on. Been keeping up with him forever too. Tend to stay away from too many comments around this board, waste of time. The internet is awesome but tends to bring out the worst in wanna bee's and know-it-all's.. Pattern is there; we'll see if it produces. Just love the awesomeness of the weather.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I'll take the 12z Euro control run for $200, Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I'll take the 12z Euro control run for $200, Alex. Yep, Like I said there is potential there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 GFS showing lots of strong hp's to our north in the long range. I like the look. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 looks like the mtns. could get snow wed.night thursday time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 I'll take the 12z Euro control run for $200, Alex. Daily Double! What's it show, James? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 Daily Double! What's it show, James? Rain to snow for central NC, presumably from the ULL after the surface low passes, but I can't actually see the 500 mb maps, so I'm not positive. More snow for DC, as well, so it's believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Rain to snow for central NC, presumably from the ULL after the surface low passes, but I can't actually see the 500 mb maps, so I'm not positive. More snow for DC, as well, so it's believable. Cool, thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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