snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 So we have the CMC which shreds the energy for 1/17, UKMET and GFS which indicate a coastal and the Euro coming out soon. If we can get the Euro on board that would be a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Sorry. I meant that the mean has a signal for more moisture and the track of the low is good and stronger than the 6z run. It seems like there is more of a consensus for what we want. Cool. Thanks. As it improves for you it puts me back in play. Think it's plenty cold for all of us so a jump NW would be OK by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS Ens Mean: 1. Good look for gulf/coastal storm on Sunday 2. Weaker system Mon-Tues with light precip into TN Valley 3. Bigger system late next week with CAD high over NY State Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Can I have a 300 mile NW jump? Ok in all seriousness the fact that more than one model show this happening is encouraging. Like other people have mentioned getting the Euro on board would be huge. But it's nice to see a system appearing to grow gradually stronger with each model run instead of showing big dog fantasies that dissappear the next run. This is a major step in the right direction. Time to cue the snow dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS Ens Mean Nice! I really hope the ECMWF/EPS heads in this direction this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm not sure what mechanism outside of this cutting off and creating its own cold air will overcome upper 30s 2m temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm not sure what mechanism outside of this cutting off and creating its own cold air will overcome upper 30s 2m temps GFS temps may be modeled too warm. If they're accurate though, we need a better feed of cold or stronger rates. Marginal temps with marginal dew points with a low in the Lakes and light precip is going to be rain for most....even if 850s look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm not sure what mechanism outside of this cutting off and creating its own cold air will overcome upper 30s 2m temps look at the sounding info Snowlover91 posted its only to warm in the last 300 ft at RDU and that is most likely a warm bias, anything heavier than drizzle will overcome that shallow warmth......although at this point focusing on the warm surface is the least of the worries we need the models to lock in on the storm first once we get that we can start sweating warm surface temps....but as a rule around here if the only thing that has to be overcome is the shallow warm surface temps and the rest of the layer is cold we usually win, the big killer down here is warm noses...,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm not sure what mechanism outside of this cutting off and creating its own cold air will overcome upper 30s 2m tempsWe can easily overcome 33+ 2m's. Check out the OBS from the snow on 1/5 in Central and S Central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I'm not sure what mechanism outside of this cutting off and creating its own cold air will overcome upper 30s 2m temps Take a look at the sounding I posted on the previous page for RDU. The atmosphere is below freezing through the 950mb layer and it's only the last few hundred feet above freezing. With decent rates the surface temps would quickly cool into the low 30s. As long as 850 temps are -3 to -5 the surface will cool down quickly when the precip falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS temps may be modeled too warm. If they're accurate though, we need a better feed of cold or stronger rates. Marginal temps with marginal dew points with a low in the Lakes and light precip is going to be rain for most....even if 850s look good. Not to mention, the trajectory of the cold air advection is crossing the mtns from the NW as opposed to from the ideal N / NE. Different folks will have concerns about different things, cold vs. storm...that's just the way it is. Some will say why worry about temps if you don't have a storm, while others will say why worry about a storm if you don't have the temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 for us just east of the mountains relying on cold spilling over the mountains on a NW flow hardly ever works out. Need the flow more northerly if the temp profile is this marginal. At least things have been slowly trending in the right direct over the past few model runs. Not there yet but trends are nice. Edit: Grit beat me to my point. Side note... first post of the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not to mention, the trajectory of the cold air advection is crossing the mtns from the NW as opposed to from the ideal N / NE. Different folks will have concerns about different things, cold vs. storm...that's just the way it is. Some will say why worry about temps if you don't have a storm, while others will say why worry about a storm if you don't have the temps99/100 times, air takes longer to get over the mountains than is modeled! Be better if cold air was already in place! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Not to mention, the trajectory of the cold air advection is crossing the mtns from the NW as opposed to from the ideal N / NE. Different folks will have concerns about different things, cold vs. storm...that's just the way it is. Some will say why worry about temps if you don't have a storm, while others will say why worry about a storm if you don't have the temps The last time I saw a map like that while precipitation was ongoing. I was watching a snowstorm on dual pol radar at 1500 feet while listening to the raindrops beat against my windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Anyone else feel that if this storm is actually real that it might be trending north to fast for southern areas like Atlanta showing to much warm air advection from the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 We can easily overcome 33+ 2m's. Check out the OBS from the snow on 1/5 in Central and S Central NC. Bingo. In fact, it was around 35-37 along I-95 and US 64 corridors before the precipitation arrived. Temperatures end up crashing to below 32 at the surface. A heavy rate of snow will cool things down quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GEFS individuals have some absolute bombs mixed in, tightly clustered about 150 miles off ILM. Some sub 985 ones, even a 979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GEFS individuals have some absolute bombs mixed in, tightly clustered about 150 miles off ILM. Some sub 985 ones, even a 979. Any of the bombs do the job of pulling in the cold air at the surface, per speculation of such a scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Any of the bombs do the job of pulling in the cold air at the surface, per speculation of such a scenario? I would have to imagine for it to get that low at that latitude, some must have gotten captured/cut off. Give me a sub 990 low in that position in mid-January and I'll take my chances if I'm PGV-RDU-EWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Rain for Central NC. The NW trend will kick in..already borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 I would have to imagine for it to get that low at that latitude, some must have gotten captured/cut off. Give me a sub 990 low in that position in mid-January and I'll take my chances if I'm PGV-RDU-EWN Thanks, and agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Rain for Central NC. The NW trend will kick in..already borderline. I see 850s at -4C and only the last 300-400 feet above freezing. Soundings are helpful in storms like this and they show that the cold will quickly mix down to the surface. It's also 120 hours out so we have time to work the details out. GFS shows about 1" for RDU and parallel GFS has 2-3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Doc will be weighing in soon. See what kind of mood today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Any of the bombs do the job of pulling in the cold air at the surface, per speculation of such a scenario? There wouldn't be a NW flow at the surface if there is a 990 or lower low off Cape Lookout ( at least not here) NE or due North would be my guess.....I agree with 84 HR NAM, I willing to chance it, would need it to track more ENE than NE as well when they turn up the coast it increases my risk of a warm nose a lot...nice the see the GFS latching on to a storm consistently the trick is that it is the GFS would love the others to start showing it better as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 There wouldn't be a NW flow at the surface if there is a 990 or lower low off Cape Lookout ( at least not here) NE or due North would be my guess.....I agree with 84 HR NAM, I willing to chance it, would need it to track more ENE than NE as well when they turn up the coast it increases my risk of a warm nose a lot...nice the see the GFS latching on to a storm consistently the trick is that it is the GFS would love the others to start showing it better as well.... If only we had a nice big banana high feeding into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Euro and GFS similar at 96 the question is will the Euro show the quick neutral and negative tilt or will it squash it like the CMC did? I'm guessing it'll be closer to the GFS since the northern energy doesn't look like the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 euro holds serve. dr no for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Oh well. Have to see if the GFS keeps the same look or not. Still time for the Euro to come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 euro holds serve. dr no for a reason. holds serve? stays the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Fail ..... It's the euro, cmc vs the GFS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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