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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1


klw

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The Yuneec Typhoon 4k that I have has a max range  (clear site) of 2600 feet.  The DJI Phantoms use a different technology and I believe have a range of over a mile. I thought I saw a video on Utube where someone flew up to 5000 feet.    I briefly once flew my drone up to 1300 feet above ground level but the video on the controller started to get shaky and I didn't want to push it. When you look up in the sky and the drone is so high that it is just a speck it gets scary.  Loosing control of a $1000 toy is no fun.   Soundings would be great but remember probably 50%-75% of days (at altitude) are just too windy to fly them.

 

PS  Mark,  I know you have had drones for awhile.  I know last year you offered to come over and fly one over my property.  Thank you for that!

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Gene, I've lost one before about 15 minutes before the kickoff of Deflategate. I think the winds up around 500' were sustained around 45 mph, b/c I couldn't return it to home. A person about a mile away found it. 

Up north, Iv'e taken it 2.2 miles out towards Welch Dickey in clear LOS before I started turned back out of fear, but still had strong uninterrupted video/communication signal (I created a reflective "V" out of copper tape and cardboard for the whip antennas).

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Since we’re a third of the way through December, I decided to see where snowfall and snowpack currently sit with respect to normal here at our site.

 

As of today we’ve had 3.7” of snow, and that’s not even close to mean snowfall as of this point in the season – on average we would have two feet of snow by now, and seasons with strong starts will already have delivered 30-40”.

 

I hadn’t thought about it until recently, but now that I look at the records I see that as of Tuesday (December 8th) this season has fallen to the least snowy in my records.  The 2006-2007 season had a storm in early December that pushed it well ahead of this season, and the closest season to this one is now 2012-2013, which had received 8.6” through this date.

 

Obviously with no snowpack down, this season is behind the curve.  The average start date of the continuous snowpack here was about a week ago, and mean snowpack depth for today is 5.1”.

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Above the Clouds....

 

Cloudy, foggy and socked in all day here in the Bristol/Plymouth area of New Hampshire.  I was in thick fog at 600 feet above lake elevation.  Down at Newfound Lake vis was about a mile with some drizzle and low clouds  just off the deck.  Temps stayed in the low 40's at my house.  Mid afternoon I decided to have some fun with the new drone and see if I could get it above the cloud deck. At my elevation I was in the fog but it was bright so I knew the top of the ceiling could not be too high.  So took it out and went straight up to 1000 feet over my house which is around 1600 feet over the surrounding countryside.  Wow!  Got over the deck into sunshine.  Was totally flying by the controller as I could not see the drone.  I made 2 videos, going up and then coming rapidly back down through the clouds.  Just too much fun for a weather nerd!   Each video runs about 2 minutes.  

At the very end of the descent when my house comes into view you can see the davis station on the roof and briefly on the right side of my house looking out is the Netcam in its case.

 

For more video fun I bought a new Nest cam so I can make timelapses of the weather.  I made a timelapse of today's weather.  Fogged in at first but then we are in and out of the low clouds all day.  I thought it was very cool too! I don't know what that line object is in the lens but I moved the cam and its gone now...

https://video.nest.com/clip/f0b2f538fe654315bdbbc0dbb7d60b08.mp4

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyHk7q6aDmo    Going Up

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xb_hp_3qxI    Going down

Love your pics and vids. I got a drone late summer and love it. I've had it at the beach and mountains and got some great shots. I'm looking forward to pics of my snowpile from up above if it ever gets cold this season lol. Here is a late evening flight fro pm the other day. I have a ares ethos fpv $329.00 I might step it up soon, if you're a beginner this might be the one to get.

http://youtu.be/9M_F5rUmBt8

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Since we’re a third of the way through December, I decided to see where snowfall and snowpack currently sit with respect to normal here at our site.

 

As of today we’ve had 3.7” of snow, and that’s not even close to mean snowfall as of this point in the season – on average we would have two feet of snow by now, and seasons with strong starts will already have delivered 30-40”.

 

I hadn’t thought about it until recently, but now that I look at the records I see that as of Tuesday (December 8th) this season has fallen to the least snowy in my records.  The 2006-2007 season had a storm in early December that pushed it well ahead of this season, and the closest season to this one is now 2012-2013, which had received 8.6” through this date.

 

Obviously with no snowpack down, this season is behind the curve.  The average start date of the continuous snowpack here was about a week ago, and mean snowpack depth for today is 5.1”.

 

I think we are heading for historically snowless this month. While there are some shots on the long range GFS I don't get a sense we are going to see any substantial pattern shift until at least late January. 

 

At this point I'm tracking this year vis these other historically bad Decembers: 

 

http://www.uvm.edu/skivt-l/?Page=.%2Fbad_december.html&dir=.

 

Looks a lot like 82-83.  (Credit to GP for first tipping me to that analog).  Interesting winter. 82-83 was a mod. el nino winter following two non-classifiable winters. I'll take a repeat if it means I have 90" in April. Just gotta make it there

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I think we are heading for historically snowless this month. While there are some shots on the long range GFS I don't get a sense we are going to see any substantial pattern shift until at least late January. 

 

At this point I'm tracking this year vis these other historically bad Decembers: 

 

http://www.uvm.edu/skivt-l/?Page=.%2Fbad_december.html&dir=.

 

Looks a lot like 82-83.  (Credit to GP for first tipping me to that analog).  Interesting winter. 82-83 was a mod. el nino winter following two non-classifiable winters. I'll take a repeat if it means I have 90" in April. Just gotta make it there

 

Yeah that 1982-1983 year has been on my mind for a few months since it came to light that was a solid Nino with an awful start and had a 0" snow depth on December 31.  That's the standard for an awful start though even that month actually had some snowfalls...they just melted.  We are really struggling just to get flakes to come out of the sky, which really isn't that hard for this climate where sometimes every passing cloud is dropping some -SN. 

 

Ironically though we were just talking about that winter in the ski thread, too...the Mansfield Coop still managed to have more snowflakes find the bucket on the summit in that winter than ANY of the previous 6 winters.  That blows my mind to some extent.  Given the overall mood of East Coast snow lovers lately, the past 6 years for the COOP are on par with the 1980s snow drought.

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If any of you actually have the power to control the weather (a moderator function perhaps?), please feel free to lock in the 6X GFS. Thank you in advance.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_30.pnggfs_asnow_neus_36.png

I've never seen more perfect fantasy range storms than the past two weeks...every single model run at 180hrs and beyond seems to spin up a perfect coastal hugger for us, haha.

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Yeah that 1982-1983 year has been on my mind for a few months since it came to light that was a solid Nino with an awful start and had a 0" snow depth on December 31.  That's the standard for an awful start though even that month actually had some snowfalls...they just melted.  We are really struggling just to get flakes to come out of the sky, which really isn't that hard for this climate where sometimes every passing cloud is dropping some -SN. 

 

Ironically though we were just talking about that winter in the ski thread, too...the Mansfield Coop still managed to have more snowflakes find the bucket on the summit in that winter than ANY of the previous 6 winters.  That blows my mind to some extent.  Given the overall mood of East Coast snow lovers lately, the past 6 years for the COOP are on par with the 1980s snow drought.

 

What is really interesting to me is how variable December is. It blows my mind that there are years with no snow depth in late december and some years there are 40"+.  

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Since we’re a third of the way through December, I decided to see where snowfall and snowpack currently sit with respect to normal here at our site.

 

As of today we’ve had 3.7” of snow, and that’s not even close to mean snowfall as of this point in the season – on average we would have two feet of snow by now, and seasons with strong starts will already have delivered 30-40”.

 

I hadn’t thought about it until recently, but now that I look at the records I see that as of Tuesday (December 8th) this season has fallen to the least snowy in my records.  The 2006-2007 season had a storm in early December that pushed it well ahead of this season, and the closest season to this one is now 2012-2013, which had received 8.6” through this date.

 

Obviously with no snowpack down, this season is behind the curve.  The average start date of the continuous snowpack here was about a week ago, and mean snowpack depth for today is 5.1”.

1999 takes the prize for lack of early snow. Thru 12/31 that snow season, Farmington had recorded 0.3" total. Their next lowest over 123 years of record is 4.7" in 1948, with a couple other years around 5". BTV had 3.1" for that period, their lowest ever and least snowy Dec. However, the higher elevations did a lot better - Mansfield, 1st CT Lake. Lowest OND snow at BML, but they're in the valley, too.

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In the clouds most all day up here on the hill with vis at times going down to a few hundred feet.  Occasionally the ceiling lifts just a couple hundred feet and I can see a much better vis down below.  Temp stuck in the low 40's. 

 

Hey,  I would take that 6Z GFS fantasy run from this AM!

 

PS  Brian, I thought about the drone but looked at Mount Washington and they were at the clouds in the summit so figured this deck is much thicker than yesterday.  Better leave well enough alone, got a good flight yesterday!

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In the clouds most all day up here on the hill with vis at times going down to a few hundred feet.  Occasionally the ceiling lifts just a couple hundred feet and I can see a much better vis down below.  Temp stuck in the low 40's. 

 

Hey,  I would take that 6Z GFS fantasy run from this AM!

 

PS  Brian, I thought about the drone but looked at Mount Washington and they were at the clouds in the summit so figured this deck is much thicker than yesterday.  Better leave well enough alone, got a good flight yesterday!

Satellite showed lots of breaks in the higher elevations west of here. Higher els around Sunapee got into the 50s.
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Satellite showed lots of breaks in the higher elevations west of here. Higher els around Sunapee got into the 50s.

 

Cold air damning doing its job.  I have noted that many times the north/south ridge just to the west of Newfound Lake  that includes 3100 foot Mt Cardigan is the dividing line between the warmer air in the Conn Valley and the cooler air draining down the Pemi River into the Plymouth/Bristol and down towards Tilton.  Right now not much of a difference,  Lebanon 47F and Im 42.8F.

 

With my latest spending spree, besides the drone I bough the Nest Cam.  It's on sale for $169 with a $10 monthly timelapse option to upload to their cloud. It also has motion sensor so its facing the back of the house for deer and bear citings.  Made this timelapse from a part of this afternoon when the clouds lifted a bit.  It's a boring time lapse but if you toggle half way through it you can see the base of the clouds coming down encompassing the yard and then lifting back up.  I hope to have more interesting time lapse videos if we ever have exciting weather again.   Gene     https://video.nest.com/clip/64d3517ca94a492cadf53b0c9144684d.mp4

PS  Just realized the first part of the video is me moving it from the south facing view to the west facing back field view!

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What is really interesting to me is how variable December is. It blows my mind that there are years with no snow depth in late december and some years there are 40"+.  

 

Another interesting thing is the last Super Nino in 1997-1998 was the exact opposite so far...Mansfield had over 100"  of snowfall at the Co-Op as of December 10th, 1997 with a four foot snowpack. 

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Satellite showed lots of breaks in the higher elevations west of here. Higher els around Sunapee got into the 50s.

 

Sounds like you guys got what we had last week with a couple straight days of fog, inversions, and cold/damp air trapped at the surface while its glorious in the hills.

 

This time of year produces some whoppers of inversions in terms of tenacity.  Very hard to mix out.

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It's great to have clean cars, roads and driveways and not worrying about tracking salt and sand in the house.  Just beautiful out.  Sunsets are at the earliest today and start getting longer tomorrow.  Sunrises continue to get later resulting in shortest day being the first day of winter.  Still some green grass for the deer, a rare Dec treat! 

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