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klw

NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1

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With meteorological winter upon us and discussion of some getting snow on Wednesday night/ Thursday, it is time to start the 2015-16 Winter thread.  May your snowpack be deep and last long.

 

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Seems like there could be some potential in the higher elevations in the next 48-72 hours in Northern VT. We'll see how this holds up.

Wednesday Night
Rain showers before 8pm, then rain and snow showers between 8pm and 11pm, then snow showers after 11pm. Low around 27. South wind 5 to 14 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow showers. High near 27. Very windy, with a northwest wind 23 to 28 mph increasing to 36 to 41 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Windy, with a northwest wind 27 to 32 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday
A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 20 mph.

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Seems like there could be some potential in the higher elevations in the next 48-72 hours in Northern VT. We'll see how this holds up.

Wednesday Night
Rain showers before 8pm, then rain and snow showers between 8pm and 11pm, then snow showers after 11pm. Low around 27. South wind 5 to 14 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow showers. High near 27. Very windy, with a northwest wind 23 to 28 mph increasing to 36 to 41 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Windy, with a northwest wind 27 to 32 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday
A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 20 mph.

 

 

I like at least 3-6" for the ski areas...1-3" for the mountain towns.

 

There's a good 12 hour period of solid upslope flow and good moisture.

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Well, it looks like the BTV NWS did decide to go with a Freezing Rain Advisory east of the mountains:

 

01DEC15A.jpg

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

138 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

 

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-020000-

/O.NEW.KBTV.ZR.Y.0001.151201T1838Z-151202T0000Z/

ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-WINDSOR-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...

STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...

SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION

138 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015

 

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZING

RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

 

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT...INCLUDING

  THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

 

* TIMING...THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING.

 

* IMPACTS...A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ACCUMULATION WILL CONTINUE TO

  CAUSE VERY SLIPPERY DRIVING ON UNTREATED ROADS AND BRIDGES THIS

  AFTERNOON. SEVERAL ACCIDENTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON INTERSTATE 89

  NEAR EXIT 7 AND ROUTE 4 IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

 

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR

FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

 

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR

GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS

WEATHER SITUATION.

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I like at least 3-6" for the ski areas...1-3" for the mountain towns.

 

There's a good 12 hour period of solid upslope flow and good moisture.

 

I think that 3-6" is about as high as you can go for this. I don't love the duration of the upslope favorable conditions.

 

But hey, even 3" would do wonders for the look and feel of the place. Snow on trees, grass covered up...big improvements. 

 

I do predict that Thursday AM will be the dreaded "first snow driving day" of the year. I'll make sure to pack my breakfast on 89. I'll be there a while. 

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I think that 3-6" is about as high as you can go for this. I don't love the duration of the upslope favorable conditions.

But hey, even 3" would do wonders for the look and feel of the place. Snow on trees, grass covered up...big improvements.

I do predict that Thursday AM will be the dreaded "first snow driving day" of the year. I'll make sure to pack my breakfast on 89. I'll be there a while.

Yeah to be honest I'd go with 4" at 3,000ft as my most likely amount.

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BTV's Taber with the details as usual...

 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EST TUESDAY...A WET ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS IS LIKELY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 00Z THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. AS POTENT 5H ENERGY ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 03Z THURSDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY...AS INITIAL SURGE OF DEEP 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL WRAP
BACK INTO OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE
COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP PRODUCE COLD
ENOUGH THERMAL PROFILES TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW...FIRST IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF NY...THEN IN VT. USING THE 925MB TO 850MB 0C LINE
SUPPORTS PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW BY 03Z NORTHERN DACKS ABOVE 1500
FEET AND BY 06Z NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM STOWE TO JAY
PEAK...AND LOWERING TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR BY 12Z THURSDAY.
A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MORNING AS WE SHIFT
FROM THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 250MB JET TO A MESOSCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THINKING BY 15Z
THURSDAY DEVELOPING 850 TO 700MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH PLENTY
OF 1000 TO 700MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS WILL HELP IN REDEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY SNOW. BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
WILL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA...WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE
MTNS. HAVE NOTED THAT EVEN WITH THE SYSTEM BEING CLOSED OFF THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTING
EAST OF OUR CWA BY 09Z FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND TAPER OFF TO CHC BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

SNOWFALL WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPEND GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES
ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING ABOVE 2000 FEET
FROM THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. EARLY
INDICATIONS SUGGEST 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THESE AREAS WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET AND ONLY A TRACE TO AN INCH OR SO BELOW
1000 FEET
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWERENCE VALLEYS. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OR LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM WEDS
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE DACKS BY 03Z FRIDAY AND AROUND 06Z AS
MOISTURE DECREASES.

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Many places in the CT River Valley are still at or below freezing. The cold air is definitely sticking around longer than I expected. I mentioned freezing rain up until 1:00 pm, but then plain rain afterwords with little to no ice accumulations.

 

Lesson of the day: Climo/Topography combo vs numerical models for departing cold air events...

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Many places in the CT River Valley are still at or below freezing. The cold air is definitely sticking around longer than I expected. I mentioned freezing rain up until 1:00 pm, but then plain rain afterwords with little to no ice accumulations.

 

Lesson of the day: Climo/Topography combo vs numerical models for departing cold air events...

Seemed that the Mesos had a good idea on this. Anytime you see their snow accumulation maps print out accumulation in an obvious ice situation pay attention. Same thing happened last Jan Obviously not snow

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I went airborne during my evening run.  The paved roads in town were okay but the dirt road was icy as were lighter colored sidewalks.

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A buddy of mine said him and his family came very close to possible death on I-89 when the truck trying to pass them lost control due to the freezing rain/ice....and luckily (for them) the truck went left across the median instead of going right and into their lane (the slow lane). 

 

He had to pull over and collect himself, as the kids were crying, and he snapped this photo looking back and how the truck ended up. 

 

Just a little freezing rain, that's all it takes.  And that's some scary sh*t when its an 18-wheeler at 70mph on suspect road conditions.

 

12308584_836626686454035_149484293346922

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I noticed last year that the truck drivers tend to not be worried about road conditions.  I had a few really icy or blizzard-y drives home from the Mad River Valley area and was passed by 18 wheelers driving 15+ MPH faster than I would have dared more than once.

 

The worst part is when they kick up a ton of salt/ice/snow/muddy water and deposit it on your windshield as they pass you.

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Really borderline icing occurring here.  None on the driveway but plants are glazed.  Cars going by pretty fast and not crashing so road is ok at least very locally.

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A buddy of mine said him and his family came very close to possible death on I-89 when the truck trying to pass them lost control due to the freezing rain/ice....and luckily (for them) the truck went left across the median instead of going right and into their lane (the slow lane).

He had to pull over and collect himself, as the kids were crying, and he snapped this photo looking back and how the truck ended up.

Just a little freezing rain, that's all it takes. And that's some scary sh*t when its an 18-wheeler at 70mph on suspect road conditions.

12308584_836626686454035_149484293346922

That's nuts. I had to drive to BTV area today for work and normally take 89 because I can go 80 the whole way..decided on rte 7 on the west side of the spine because of the CAD in EVT..glad I did.

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It's sorta stuck at that diabatically confused 32F now...should I freeze or should I melt?

Hah, yeah the not accruing but not melting stage. You guys do hold cold air (even just that extra degree or two) like nobody else.

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I noticed last year that the truck drivers tend to not be worried about road conditions.  I had a few really icy or blizzard-y drives home from the Mad River Valley area and was passed by 18 wheelers driving 15+ MPH faster than I would have dared more than once.

 

The worst part is when they kick up a ton of salt/ice/snow/muddy water and deposit it on your windshield as they pass you.

That's one of the reasons I stay off the interstates. Hate the trucks.

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Seemed that the Mesos had a good idea on this. Anytime you see their snow accumulation maps print out accumulation in an obvious ice situation pay attention. Same thing happened last Jan Obviously not snow

I noticed the NAM 4K had some freezing rain last night, but it looked spotty and elevation dependent to me. I went with the WRF Ensembles which did absolutely dreadful for today's forecast. I'm just glad I had freezing rain in my discussion from last night. Even the NWS had trouble forecasting for today.

 

Apparently the WRF Ensembles uses an algorithm where it forecasts freezing rain only when surface temperatures are below 0C. Since temps have been at 0C for the majority of the event, much of the freezing rain in the CT River Valley went unnoticed by the WRF Ensembles.

 

I wasn't able to see any of the mesos in the morning, unfortunately.

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I noticed the NAM 4K had some freezing rain last night, but it looked spotty and elevation dependent to me. I went with the WRF Ensembles which did absolutely dreadful for today's forecast. I'm just glad I had freezing rain in my discussion from last night. Even the NWS had trouble forecasting for today.

 

Apparently the WRF Ensembles uses an algorithm where it forecasts freezing rain only when surface temperatures are below 0C. Since temps have been at 0C for the majority of the event, much of the freezing rain in the CT River Valley went unnoticed by the WRF Ensembles.

 

I wasn't able to see any of the mesos in the morning, unfortunately.

Gotta be wary after a night in the teens too...skin temps were pretty cold with that liquid precip quickly moving in this mornng.

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