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NNE Winter 2015-16 Part 1

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A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM WEDS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

 

I don’t recall any snow advisories in October or November, so that could be the first one of the season?  Hopefully we’ll have more possibilities with the temperature averages getting colder every day – some of the models certainly suggest an active pattern with precipitation chances.

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If you simply take model temps and know models are too quick to warm up temps...you'll do well. It looked like the Berks and nrn ORH hills at higher elevations would have ZR and I believe some did. This when models were in mid 30s.

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If you simply take model temps and know models are too quick to warm up temps...you'll do well. It looked like the Berks and nrn ORH hills at higher elevations would have ZR and I believe some did. This when models were in mid 30s.

 

Looking at it now, I see how everything materialized. I noticed the obs from this morning looked colder than expected, but I didn't think anything of it. That was my first red flag... I'll remember this bias.

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Looking at it now, I see how everything materialized. I noticed the obs from this morning looked colder than expected, but I didn't think anything of it. That was my first red flag... I'll remember this bias.

Yeah I find there isn't really any magic to it. It's just a bias when you have a cold and dry airmass with any high....even retreating. Meso scale models are usually much better than gfs or even euro, but they still can be too warm.

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Never had anything frozen here.

 

I hope we get enough rain to thaw the soil.  It's already frozen down to about 3" deep where it gets no sun.  Construction progress is going ridiculously slow.  Now sure how they're gonna grade soil if it freezes into slabs.

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Different world up at 1,500ft this morning...was 35F and light rain at home but still sitting at 32F with ZR at the base of the mountain.  I started seeing ice on the roadway and then all the sudden the trees were all glazed and slightly drooping.  Although it was dark, it appeared as though a very sharp ice line was right around 1,300-1,400ft in elevation.

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If you simply take model temps and know models are too quick to warm up temps...you'll do well. It looked like the Berks and nrn ORH hills at higher elevations would have ZR and I believe some did. This when models were in mid 30s.

 

I know I mentioned it a few days ago that the set up favored ice, but not a lot of it. With a retreating high you lack a source to replenish that low level cold air, and you end up with marginal cold.

 

But that's really all it takes, a thin glaze on the road and you have spin outs everywhere.

 

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12z models aren't nearly as robust with snow potential for NNE...might be more like 1-3" at the ski resorts instead of 3-6".

 

BTV had 4-8" yesterday, and 3-5" this morning, but I bet that needs to be cut back some more after the 12z GFS/NAM.

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12z models aren't nearly as robust with snow potential for NNE...might be more like 1-3" at the ski resorts instead of 3-6".

 

BTV had 4-8" yesterday, and 3-5" this morning, but I bet that needs to be cut back some more after the 12z GFS/NAM.

 

I dunno, I think 3-6" is still the right amount after looking at the latest NAM ....particularly if you track it forward through to Friday. 

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12z models aren't nearly as robust with snow potential for NNE...might be more like 1-3" at the ski resorts instead of 3-6".

 

BTV had 4-8" yesterday, and 3-5" this morning, but I bet that needs to be cut back some more after the 12z GFS/NAM.

 

That cold air that was slated to arrive between 03-06z, now it's until like 12z. So we lose 6 hours of QPF, and it is falling during a diurnally unfavorable time for the valleys. Going to have to pound to get much accumulations down there.

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That cold air that was slated to arrive between 03-06z, now it's until like 12z. So we lose 6 hours of QPF, and it is falling during a diurnally unfavorable time for the valleys. Going to have to pound to get much accumulations down there.

Agreed...still looks like enough cold air for 1500-2000ft and higher. This never really got me excited for my front lawn, but could see a pasty 3-4" at 3,000ft.

Which is sad that a possible 3-4" at 3,000ft and higher is noteworthy in December, lol.

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That cold air that was slated to arrive between 03-06z, now it's until like 12z. So we lose 6 hours of QPF, and it is falling during a diurnally unfavorable time for the valleys. Going to have to pound to get much accumulations down there.

what about The County?

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Agreed...still looks like enough cold air for 1500-2000ft and higher. This never really got me excited for my front lawn, but could see a pasty 3-4" at 3,000ft.

Which is sad that a possible 3-4" at 3,000ft and higher is noteworthy in December, lol.

 

This storm is just too little, too late for western parts of NNE.

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what about The County?

 

Still looking fine for the CAR CWA. Especially as you head towards HUL, you have more time for the mid levels to develop and wring out the most QPF. It's still getting going when our Maine mountains have the best shot at snowfall, so we have less to work with.

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This storm is just too little, too late for western parts of NNE.

 

Well this always had an orographic look to me, I didn't think we ever really would have a shot at synoptic snows.  There's still a decent 7-9 hour period tomorrow afternoon and evening for the Spine to pick up a few inches on the meso-models (WRF/RGEM). 

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Well this always had an orographic look to me, I didn't think we ever really would have a shot at synoptic snows.  There's still a decent 7-9 hour period tomorrow afternoon and evening for the Spine to pick up a few inches on the meso-models (WRF/RGEM). 

 

Yeah, I think it would have had a better look for upslope had it really developed sooner and thrown some moisture back west.

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The further east you are in Northern Maine, The better off you are for this one this time around

 

RGEM is pretty evenly spread except for extreme eastern Maine.  Pretty much a wide area of 2-5" from the ski resorts in VT eastward above 1,500ft.

 

 

Hi-Res WRF is showing FVE and Jay Peak still with 6" potential, haha.

 

 

 

Overall, pretty uneventful but we'll see how it shakes out.

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Yeah, I think it would have had a better look for upslope had it really developed sooner and thrown some moisture back west.

 

Oh yeah definitely...we needed it to really crank earlier for a real solid event.  But there'll be some flakes flying anyway.

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Hi-Res WRF is showing FVE and Jay Peak still with 6" potential, haha.

 

attachicon.gifhires_snow_neng_61.png

 

 

Overall, pretty uneventful but we'll see how it shakes out.

10-12" for Estcourt Station. Nearest ski area (in Ft. Kent) gets half as much.

This storm is just too little, too late for western parts of NNE.

 

Heard that tune a lot last winter.

 

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RGEM is pretty evenly spread except for extreme eastern Maine.  Pretty much a wide area of 2-5" from the ski resorts in VT eastward above 1,500ft.

 

attachicon.gifrgem_snow_acc_neng_17.png

 

Hi-Res WRF is showing FVE and Jay Peak still with 6" potential, haha.

 

attachicon.gifhires_snow_neng_61.png

 

 

Overall, pretty uneventful but we'll see how it shakes out.

 

12z Euro looked a little more robust and has the last couple runs

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12z Euro looked a little more robust and has the last couple runs

 

Yeah, not an easy forecast in Maine.  Model runs the past 1-2 days have ranged from like zero snow in some places to like 18" in those same places.  

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Yeah, I think it would have had a better look for upslope had it really developed sooner and thrown some moisture back west.

 

Agreed. The loss of .1 qpf tonight hurts. As does the sharp drop in midlevel RH friday. That said I'm still preffy confident I'll find 6" to go ski on above 3000ft. 

 

Wed 12/02 18Z 0.19 2317 92 83 6 0.01

Wed 12/02 21Z 0.18 2411 98 94 4 0.00

Thu 12/03 00Z 0.03 2005 95 97 5 0.02

Thu 12/03 03Z 0.16 2607 99 94 2 0.05

Thu 12/03 06Z 0.13 3005 99 71 0 0.02

Thu 12/03 09Z 0.33 3013 99 84 -1 0.01

Thu 12/03 12Z 0.55 3020 97 95 -3 0.02

Thu 12/03 15Z 0.72 2924 96 85 -4 0.03

Thu 12/03 18Z 1.20 2929 97 77 -5 0.02

Thu 12/03 21Z 1.27 3035 98 85 -5 0.03

Fri 12/04 00Z 1.03 3232 98 80 -6 0.05

Fri 12/04 03Z 0.64 3324 98 51 -6 0.04

Fri 12/04 06Z 0.42 3120 90 11 -4 0.03

Fri 12/04 09Z 0.35 2919 74 9 -1 0.02

Fri 12/04 12Z 0.41 2722 65 13 -1 0.01

Fri 12/04 15Z 0.44 2624 73 34 -1 0.00

Fri 12/04 18Z 0.60 2622 94 39 -5 0.00

Fri 12/04 21Z 0.81 2721 99 56 -6 0.01

Sat 12/05 00Z 0.86 3024 97 53 -7 0.01

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