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2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion


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Pattern will change, I am thinking this is a head fake though...first week of Jan we get a glimpse and then we revert to some crap pattern until atleast the 20th and then we see some changes into Feb. Going to be a long 4 weeks. Think someone in the east sees something first week of Jan, probably mtns up through MA to NE.

Mountains could also have flooding issues. The GFS is showing areas over 8" by the end of its run in the mountains of NC and Euro is showing high 6" or more amounts over the next 7-10 days.

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(1/3) If the rain holds off on Christmas Eve, temperatures could climb into the upper 70s to near 80. #ncwx





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  1. (2/3) Afternoon temperatures on Christmas Eve should range in the lower to mid 70s.





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    (1/3) Temperatures on Christmas should be much above normal and may break record highs & record high minimums. #ncwx





    CWseQErU4AAeyDL.png





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Nice changes for late Jan on the BCC model. New run left, old run 3 days ago right. Building a more +PNA/-EPO look w/ pacific low defined and a redistributed torugh over southern and eastern states. +AO is the only problem here but you can't hate the trend. Jan 20-29. 

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Jon, what many of the models show with warmth in Canada due to ridging and cooler air down south seems to match well with analogs for the strong El Niño years. Here is what the map for January looks like. Very similar to what the long range Ensembles, seasonal models and others are hinting at. Pattern change still on track for first week of January imo.

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Where would one go in order to find ranked climate data for weather stations?  For example, I would like to know the record for the warmest average December temperature at RDU.  I have a supician that it may be crushed this year.

There are many tools/different websites...here's just one http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/nc_extremes.php

 

81 degrees Dec 10, 2007 @ RDU (for highest temperature in Dec)

 

you can do all of NC and get a rank of stations for December: 

 

Event Location Date

Highest Temperature

87°F Edenton, Chowan County Dec 3, 1922

87°F Kinston, Lenoir County Dec 9, 1918

86°F Fayetteville, Cumberland County Dec 20, 1931

86°F Goldsboro, Wayne County Dec 8, 1998

86°F Washington, Beaufort County Dec 7, 1906

 

means are also available 

 

Warmest Weather Station*

50.5°F Hatteras, Dare County monthly average

50.0°F Buxton, Dare County monthly average

49.6°F Morehead City, Carteret County monthly average

49.0°F Cedar Island, Carteret County monthly average

48.9°F Wilmington, New Hanover County monthly average

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Looks better but could just end up colder and wet. Without the Atlantic 40S won't get much of anything good...just my opinion

Even with just seasonal/average temps we at least have an outside chance of seeing snow if we have a good storm track timed with some colder air. In the current pattern we have there is zero chance for snow here because a shot of cooler air drops us to slightly below average and lasts a day or two. With temps near 80 there definitely won't be snow. The pattern depicted by the ensembles would be at or slightly below average which would at least give us a decent chance for something. This is evident by the GFS finally showing fantasy snow storms whereas we didn't even have that before. You know it's bad when the LR GFS isn't even showing a big snow or super cold Arctic outbreak. Glad we are heading out of this warm December into a cooler January and frigid February.

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Looks better but could just end up colder and wet. Without the Atlantic 40S won't get much of anything good...just my opinion

Well I agree considering the mean 850mb 0c line is basically I-40, but the models are just now figuring out this time period so there's that. Anything we get in the first two weeks of Jan will be a bonus but I'm expecting to start having storms to track sooner than later. This is much better than the pattern we have been stuck in, the endless heat is over on the models and thank god for that, people were thinking we would be stuck in that all winter.

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EPS is impressive for how fast it changes from this crap pattern to a potential wintery one...still believe we "relax" again for a couple of weeks in mid-Jan though.

If we could reverse the red/blue blobs in the Atlantic it would be nice...probably suppress the pattern south to your liking maybe not mine...but I agree the Pac doesn't look stable enough to keep that look

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If we could reverse the red/blue blobs in the Atlantic it would be nice...probably suppress the pattern south to your liking maybe not mine...but I agree the Pac doesn't look stable enough to keep that look

It will be interesting to see if that ridge off Nova Scotia is a fixture this winter or not, obviously everyone wants a -NAO but it's been negative once in the past 15 or so winter months. Seems like analogs pick that up and matches what the EPS/GEFS are spitting out the first week of Jan.

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This is a fairly obvious post but something to think about when putting all our eggs in the Feb basket...our snowy nino's are cold in Jan and our non-snowy are warm in Jan. 

 

Let's take out 92/98 since they were so extreme, 6 non-snowy were warm in Jan but still cold in Feb....still well BN snowfall for the winter.  #needcoldJan?

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yeah this is concerning considering it has nailed this month. Did it not show a torch the whole winter?

I think this is actually a pretty common misconception about the modeling this fall.  All climate models, from October on were showing a pretty warm December east of the Mississippi.  Was the CFS the closest on magnitude?  Sure, but it's not like others didn't see it as well.

 

CanSIPS from November 1st.

 

cansips_T2ma_us_1.png

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Robert doesn't seem to be on board for the pattern change! Check out his FB page. Basically warm and warmer, for a long time

 

LOL....he just speaks through New Years, it will be crazy hot through atleast New Years day, first week of Jan we look to go more seasonable to maybe slightly below, but CFS showing 1-2F AN for SE for Jan seems reasonable.

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LOL....he just speaks through New Years, it will be crazy hot through atleast New Years day, first week of Jan we look to go more seasonable to maybe slightly below, but CFS showing 1-2F AN for SE for Jan seems reasonable.

1-2 above for Jan, I'll take! Hate for it to turn into a super cold , dry pattern! I know that's probably off the table, but we don't need mega cold to score, just cold enough! I like 36 degree snows!
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