Brian5671 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 6 inches on the fist day with a winter storm warning and then 8 inches the next day with a blizzard warning. We had 18 or something like that here b/w the 2 events. 1st came in on the Friday around noon with a good 6-10 inches and then a heavier event the next day...it was all gone with a rainstorm a few days later sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 The period around 12/7-12/10 still needs to be watched. The 12z GFS was close to blowing something up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 We had 18 or something like that here b/w the 2 events. 1st came in on the Friday around noon with a good 6-10 inches and then a heavier event the next day...it was all gone with a rainstorm a few days later sadly. Some totals from Orange county for that period... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Some totals from Orange county for that period... And Port Jervis had only 6" in that storm, another big cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 And Port Jervis had only 6" in that storm, another big cutoff. That 6" report from port jervis looks to have never been updated. Look at the time it was reported. Im sure more fell after the time of that report. I don't remember a big cutoff with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 That 6" report from port jervis looks to have never been updated. Look at the time it was reported. Im sure more fell after the time of that report. I don't remember a big cutoff with that one. I had a meeting in Port the week after that storm, they got shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 A NYC December average temperature of 40 degrees has been the cutoff between an above or below normal snowfall December in the 2000's. NYC average December snowfall 4.8" and average temperature 37.5. Year.....temperature....snowfall 2000...31.1....13.4" 2001...44.1....T 2002...36.0....11.0" 2003...37.6....19.8" 2004...38.4......3.0" 2005...35.3......9.7" 2006...43.6......0 2007...37.0.....2.9" 2008...38.1.....6.0" 2009...35.9....12.4" 2010...32.8....20.1" 2011...43.3....0 2012...41.5....0.4" 2013...38.5....8.6" 2014...40.5....1.0" all the 40 degree and above Decembers had an inch or less of snow...before 2000 the last 10" storm in December was 1960... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 I had a meeting in Port the week after that storm, they got shafted. Wow thats an impressive cut off then.. I was living in Cornwall at the time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Some totals from Orange county for that period... amazing, practically 3/4 of a season's snowfall in 2 days, 6-7 days into Met winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 all the 40 degree and above Decembers had an inch or less of snow...before 2000 the last 10" storm in December was 1960... The 2000's Decembers have shown some impressive variability in alternating between snowy and mild years. About the only type of weather that has been missing so far is the single digit or lower cold. Even readings below 20 have been fewer compared to earlier years in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Wow thats an impressive cut off then.. I was living in Cornwall at the time.. You're right, it wasn't as much of a cutoff as the snow hole for that area, check this out: http://www.weather.gov/bgm/pastWinterDecember062003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 The 2000's Decembers have shown some impressive variability in alternating between snowy and mild years. About the only type of weather that has been missing so far is the single digit or lower cold. Even readings below 20 have been fewer compared to earlier years in NYC. With the warm AMO that's not surprising, since the 80s we've even been struggling with those temps in January and February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 If one uses today's high and low temperatures (reported through 1 pm) and the MOS data through December 8, the first 8 days of December will average nearly 5.8° above normal. The following temperature anomalies would be need for the remainder of the month for a December monthly anomaly ranging from -1° to +3°: 1° below normal: -3.3° Normal: -2.0° 1° above normal: -0.7° 2° above normal: +0.7° 2.5° above normal (40.0° mean temperature): +1.4° 3° above normal: +2.0° 4° above normal: +3.4° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 Well, the CFS daily for December (next 30 days actually) shows 18 days clearly Above Normal and 13 Normal, which could go either way, but probably above, except near end of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 There must be special on red paint ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 There must be special on red paint ..... Hopefully, the excessive usage of red paint right now will lead to a shortage for much of the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 The December 500 mb pattern generally looks like a continuation of November. Split El Nino Aleutian Low near Alaska and the SW US pumping the ridge over the Northeast. You want to see the trough near Alaska back west from mid-January through March and the SW trough kick out to over the SE US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2015 Share Posted December 1, 2015 The December 500 mb pattern generally looks like a continuation of November. Split El Nino Aleutian Low near Alaska and the SW US pumping the ridge over the Northeast. You want to see the trough near Alaska back west from mid-January through March and the SW trough kick out to over the SE US. 15.gif ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png Therein lies the key. If the one eyed pig doesn't retrograde there is no winter. There's a chance it does and a chance it rots there ala 2011-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 1, 2015 Author Share Posted December 1, 2015 There is always a chance the forecast doesn't pan out , however 57 67 77 all had terrible Decembers and they turned out OK ( better than OK ). December 97 was the coldest of the winter months and how did that turn out ? The guidance retrogrades the pattern at 500 on all but 1 model and ALL the models had warm DECs so non of this is a surprise. Nothing is certain when it comes to the response of the atmosphere downstream from such a big event so there is always a chance of that 1 model being right. Better to go with the overall guidance , and maybe that's wrong in the end but I will see you in March for that , not Dec 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ Call FD to complain-----and it comes with a 5/5 confidence level! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php FD has the blaze 20% contained three days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ Call FD to complain-----and it comes with a 5/5 confidence level! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php FD has the blaze 20% contained three days later. I've never seen them be that confident and so expansive, it's basically a guarantee.December isn't a winter month anyway so the warmth can happily stick around. It's been so pleasant lately not having to deal with the cold (minus a couple days). I'm loving this fall extension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ Call FD to complain-----and it comes with a 5/5 confidence level! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php FD has the blaze 20% contained three days later. Inferno warning is in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ Call FD to complain-----and it comes with a 5/5 confidence level! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php FD has the blaze 20% contained three days later. That's pure vomit in your mouth. Goes along with exactly what I have been saying for a couple months. It's not just the Nino it's the record warm waters off the west coast. Any sort of Sw flow with air originating from there and we recors torch Personally I'm backing down a tad from my record December to something more like +5 I think there are a couple cold shots towards the end of the month that prevent the record as the pattern starts to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 The AO index should be go mostly negative after Dec. 17 for the duration, and have the periodic company of a -NAO until Jan. 23 when it too goes negative for the duration. The 12/23-----early Jan period might be interesting as an appetizer Sustained activity not till Jan. 23 and satiety not till early April. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 The AO index should be go mostly negative after Dec. 17 for the duration, and have the periodic company of a -NAO until Jan. 23 when it too goes negative for the duration. The 12/23-----early Jan period might be interesting as an appetizer Sustained activity not till Jan. 23 and satiety not till early April. LOL.+AO likely most of the winter unfortunately http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/?view=getnewpost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 The AO index should be go mostly negative after Dec. 17 for the duration, and have the periodic company of a -NAO until Jan. 23 when it too goes negative for the duration. The 12/23-----early Jan period might be interesting as an appetizer Sustained activity not till Jan. 23 and satiety not till early April. LOL. The GFS ensembles generally favor a positive AO to the limit of their forecasting range. Typically, with the kind of strong and expansive polar vortex, the guidance rushes the breakdown of the vortex. A mainly positive second half of December is certainly possible if such a timing issue is considered. January remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 if this year is like last year the ao doesn't have to drop to record levels for cold and snow...usually when the ao is at its lowest point of the winter it's usually cold or snowy in the NYC area...Here are the El Nino years with the weather at the time of the ao winter minimum... 1951-52......-3.805.....3/4/1952....4" snow 3/2...1952-53......-3.766.....12/27/52....12/27...12 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season...4" snow 12/31...1953-54......-3.495.....1/30/54......Cold snowy January...1957-58......-4.030.....3/11/58......snow storms 3/14 and 3/21...1958-59......-4.026.....1/7/59........cold continues...1963-64......-4.470.....12/20/63....1.4" 12/18...6.6" 12/23-24...11 degrees 12/20 coldest for that month...1965-66......-5.130.....1/28/66......1/28...8 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season 1/28...storm 7" on 1/30...1968-69......-5.282.....2/13/69......17 degrees 2/17 is the coldest temp for the month...15" of snow 2/9-10....1969-70......-6.365.....3/5/70........20 degrees 3/10 coldest temp for the month....1972-73......-2.044.....12/17/72...24 degrees max 12/17.....1976-77......-7.433.....1/15/77......-2 degrees on the 17th is the coldest temp of the winter...5" snow 1/14-15...1977-78......-5.291.....2/5/78........10 degrees 2/5 is the coldest temperature of the season...18" snow 2/6-7... 1979-80......-3.705.....1/24/80......continued cold and dry...longest stretch of cold that winter...1982-83......-3.410.....2/6/83........4" of snow 2/6 and 18" 2/11-12...1986-87......-3.507.....3/9/87........2" snow 3/12...Near record cold 3/10...1987-88......-2.314.....2/28/88......0.6" 2/27 is the last measurable snow...1991-92......-2.597.....12/4/91.....0.7" 12/5...1992-93......-2.228.....3/2/93.......Super storm 3/13...Near record cold followed...1994-95......-3.116.....3/9/95.......20 degrees 3/10 is the coldest temp for the month....1997-98......-4.269.....1/10/98.....14 degrees New Years day...Coldest of the winter...2002-03......-3.575.....1/22/03......7 degrees 1/24 is the coldest for the winter...2003-04......-4.387.....1/17/04......1 degree 1/16 is the coldest temp of the season...6" of snow 1/15...Dec.2004-05......-4.337.....2/26/05......6" of snow 2/25 and 8" 2/29...2006-07......-2.184.....2/4/07........8 degrees 2/5 is the coldest for the winter...2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09...11" snow 12/19-20....16 degrees 12/18 is the coldest for the month...2014-15......-1.462.....03/19/15...4.5" of snow March 20th... ........................................................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Only 0.21" in the park so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 Only 0.21" in the park so far. And the models scaled back totals for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2015 Share Posted December 2, 2015 The SOI is free falling Yesterday : -22.80 Today : - 33.68 https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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