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December warm NOT White

PB GFI

By PB GFI,
in New York City Metro

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wxnut

wxnut

Posted
Posted

Thanks for this, excellent synopsis and fascinating statistical tidbits. Truly nothing like we've ever experienced previously.

It truly isn't.

 

I did a bit more analysis on the data. The greatest spread among the top TEN warmest values of ANY month in NYC is 4.8F for January, from #1 at 43.2F to #10 at 38.4F.  Dec 2015 beats 2nd place 2001 by 6.7F, a larger value than any top 10 spread of any month. Truly remarkable. 

 

Looking at all Decembers from 1869-2014, the mean temperature was 35.9F, with a standard deviation of 4.1F.  Dec 2015 will be 14.9F warmer than that long term mean, or 3.6X SD. I'm not a statistical expert, but I understand the expected frequency of a 3.5 SD event is 1 in 2149, so Dec 2015 would have a statistical return period of over 2149 years. Truly off the scale..

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

It truly isn't.

 

I did a bit more analysis on the data. The greatest spread among the top TEN warmest values of ANY month in NYC is 4.8F for January, from #1 at 43.2F to #10 at 38.4F.  Dec 2015 beats 2nd place 2001 by 6.7F, a larger value than any top 10 spread of any month. Truly remarkable. 

 

Looking at all Decembers from 1869-2014, the mean temperature was 35.9F, with a standard deviation of 4.1F.  Dec 2015 will be 14.9F warmer than that long term mean, or 3.6X SD. I'm not a statistical expert, but I understand the expected frequency of a 3.5 SD event is 1 in 2149, so Dec 2015 would have a statistical return period of over 2149 years. Truly off the scale..

A 3.6 sigma event has a return period of 3,142.5 years. A 3.6 sigma above (below) normal event (a single tail of the normal curve) has a return period of twice that figure. 

 

Using the 1981-2010 baseline, one is still dealing with almost a 3 sigma event (probably will be there after tomorrow).

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

With 0.01" rain today that's 10 straight days with measurable precip...when was the last day with significant sunshine? My written obs show the last day not described as mostly cloudy was Dec 21st.

December 1972 was like this year only cooler...This was the most unseasonable month of my life...

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dWave

dWave

Posted
Posted

Let's say December finishes at 50.8F. That will be an astounding 6.7F warmer than the now second warmest December of 2001 at 44.1F.  To put it in perspective, 50.8F would be tied for 9th warmest NOVEMBER in NYC since 1869.

 

That spread of 6.7F over 2nd place is simply unprecedented in NYC weather history. For comparison, the greatest spread between 1st and 2nd warmest of any other month in NYC is 1.8F for January (all time warmest 43.2F Jan 1932 over 2nd place 41.4F 1990/1950)  Two other months have a spread of 1.0F (April and September), and all the rest have spreads between 0.1 and 0.8F between the top 2 warmest values. So a spread of 6.7F between 1st and 2nd is simply beyond anything we've ever seen in 146 years of weather records. It's a statistical freak that will likely never be repeated in our lifetime, unless there's some other forces at play.. 

     

And I still can't get over the fact that the average low this December at NYC (~45.3F) will be over a full degree warmer than the all time warmest December MEAN (44.1F in 2001). I'm not sure there's ever been a month in history where something like that has ever happened in the US.  Again, another stat to demonstrate how off the charts this December has been in NYC and much of eastern NA.

 

That is the most mind blowing Dec 2015 stat I've seen. Also leaves most ppl so not adjusted to true cold temps its going to be a shock to the system, especially if you live in or very near to NYC. At least everyone else has experienced some chilly to cold nights from time to time.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

NYC just had more extreme monthly warmth here than occurred in Chicago during March 2012.

These two events surpass the record warmth in January 2006 for the Upper Midwest.

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=80740&source=0

 

Chicago-O’Hare

-     In Chicago, the previous warmest March on record occurred in 1910 and then in 1945, which both averaged 48.6 degrees. March 2012 finished with an average temperature of 53.5 degrees, shattering the old record by an astounding 4.9 degrees!. Not only did this shatter the record for the warmest March, it would have ranked as the 7th warmest April in Chicago! 

-     The 4.9 degree difference between the average temperature for March 2012 at Chicago-O'Hare and the previous record for warmest March is by far the largest difference between 1st and 2nd place between record warm or cold months in Chicago. The second largest difference between 1st and 2nd place is the 3.1 degrees separating the average temperature of January 1880 (39.8) and January 1933 (36.7) for the warmest Januarys on record in Chicago.

-   The 15.6 degree departure from normal for March 2012 is the 3rd largest departure from the 1981-2010 normal for any month in Chicago. The only months that had higher departures from normal were January 1877, which with an average temperature of 39.8 degrees, was 16 degrees above the 1981-2010 average January temperature, and December 1877, which with an average temperature of 43.4 degrees, was 15.7 degrees above the 1981-2010 average December temperature.

-     Chicago-O'Hare's March 2012 average temperature would rank as tied for the 14th coolest May in Chicago!

 

http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/record_january0601.htm

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/GRAND FORKS 1005 AM CST WED FEB 1 2006

...RECORD JANUARY TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEY REGION...
JANUARY 2006 WAS THE WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD AT HECTOR INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...FARGO NORTH DAKOTA.
THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 23.5 DEGREES OR 16.7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR 2006. THIS ECLIPSED
THE PREVIOUS RECORD BY 1.7 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS WARMEST JANUARY OCCURRED IN 1990...WHICH AVERAGED
21.8 DEGREES. RECORD FOR FARGO DATE BACK TO 1881. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WAS 40 DEGREES SET ON THE
23RD AND 26TH...THE COLDEST WAS 3 BELOW ZERO SET ON THE 21ST.

JANUARY 2006 WAS ALSO THE WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR THE GRAND FORKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 21.3 DEGREES OR 16.0 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT THE GRAND FORKS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR 2006. THIS ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS RECORD BY 2.6 DEGREES. THE PREVIOUS
WARMEST JANUARY AT THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT ALSO OCCURRED IN 1990 AND THAT YEAR IT AVERAGED
18.7 DEGREES. RECORDS FOR THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT DATE BACK TO 1941. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE
WAS 39 DEGREES SET ON THE 23RD...THE COLDEST WAS 5 BELOW ZERO SET ON THE 20TH.
FINALLY...JANUARY 2006 WAS ALSO THE WARMEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH
DAKOTA/NWS CLIMATE SITE. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.5 DEGREES WAS 18.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 20.1 DEGREES...ALSO SET IN 1990. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WAS 40 DEGREES
SET ON THE 23RD AND THE COLDEST WAS ZERO SET ON THE 20TH AND 21ST.

THE TEMPERATURE AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH DAKOTA/NWS CLIMATE SITE DID NOT GO BELOW ZERO IN
JANUARY 2006. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT THERE WAS NOT A BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURE IN JANUARY
FOR THIS SITE. RECORDS FOR THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH DAKOTA/NWS CLIMATE SITE DATE BACK TO 1885.
NOTE: THE PERIOD 1971-2000 IS USED AS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL FOR ALL OF THE ABOVE SITES.

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
832 AM CST WED FEB 1 2006

...WARMEST JANUARY EVER RECORDED IN ROCHESTER MINNESOTA...
THE AVERAGE JANUARY 2006 TEMPERATURE AT ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 28.1 DEGREES.
THIS WAS THE WARMEST JANUARY EVER RECORDED IN ROCHESTER MINNESOTA...AND IT SURPASSED THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 25.8 DEGREES ESTABLISHED IN 1990. MONTHLY TEMPERATURES RECORDS FOR
ROCHESTER EXTEND BACK TO 1886.
NORMALLY IN JANUARY...ROCHESTER HAS AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 11.8 DEGREES.


RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
849 AM CST WED FEB 1 2006

...LEAST SNOW EVER RECORDED IN ROCHESTER MINNESOTA...
DURING JANUARY 2006...ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED ONLY 0.8 INCHES OF SNOW.
THIS WAS THE LEAST SNOW EVER REPORTED IN A JANUARY...AND IT SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS RECORD
OF 1.7 INCHES ESTABLISHED IN 1961. MONTHLY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR ROCHESTER EXTEND
BACK TO 1886.

NORMALLY IN JANUARY...ROCHESTER RECEIVES 11.1 INCHES OF SNOW.

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

While waiting for the final numbers, some quick tidbits on how remarkable December 2015 has been:

 

1. Fewest days with readings 32° or below: 0 (broke the record of 6 set in 1984 and tied in 2006). Only 10 November cases saw no such days.

 

2. Most days with low temperatures of 50° or above: 11 (broke the record of 5 set in 1982 and tied in 1998). This figure matches the November record.

 

3. The mean temperature was warmer than that in Octobers 1876, 1888, 1889, and 1925

 

4. The average low temperature exceeded the previous highest average temperature of 44.1° set in 2001.

 

5. The daily low temperature of 63° on December 24 matched the previous record high temperature for the date set in 1996. It is also the highest minimum temperature on record after November 9 and before March 28.

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

While waiting for the final numbers, some quick tidbits on how remarkable December 2015 has been:

 

1. Fewest days with readings 32° or below: 0 (broke the record of 6 set in 1984 and tied in 2006). Only 10 November cases saw no such days.

 

2. Most days with low temperatures of 50° or above: 11 (broke the record of 5 set in 1982 and tied in 1998). This figure matches the November record.

 

3. The mean temperature was warmer than that in Octobers 1876, 1888, 1889, and 1925

 

4. The average low temperature exceeded the previous highest average temperature of 44.1° set in 2001.

 

5. The daily low temperature of 63° on December 24 matched the previous record high temperature for the date set in 1996. It is also the lowest minimum temperature on record after November 9 and before March 28.

Don't you mean 'highest minimum temperature' in  Fact #5

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

December 2015 had a plus ao and nao...the nao was the highest for all these analogs...+2.24...that and the near record oni (estimated for NDJ) helped aid the warm pattern...for a cold/snowy December you need to see a negative ao/nao in December especially during el nino years

December temperature, snowfall, NDJ ONI, Dec. AO NAO

1958..........29.4...............3.8"..........0.6..........-1.687....-0.70

1976..........29.9...............5.1"..........0.7..........-2.074....-1.60

1963..........31.2.............11.3"..........1.0..........-1.178....-1.92

1969..........33.4...............6.8"..........0.6..........-1.856....-0.28

1968..........34.3...............7.0"..........0.9..........-0.783....-1.40

1977..........35.7...............0.4"..........0.7..........-0.240....-1.00

2009..........35.9.............12.4"..........1.3..........-3.413....-1.93

2002..........36.0.............11.0"..........1.1..........-1.592....-0.94

 

1997..........38.3................T.............2.3..........-0.071....-0.96

1951..........38.4...............3.3"..........0.6...........1.987.....1.32

2004..........38.4...............3.0"..........0.7...........1.230.....1.21

1972..........38.5................T.............1.9...........1.238.....0.19

1986..........39.0...............0.6"..........1.1...........0.060.....0.99

1987..........39.5...............2.6"..........1.1..........-0.534.....0.32

1991..........39.6...............0.7"..........1.4...........1.613.....0.46

1957..........40.2...............8.7"..........1.6...........0.828.....0.12

1965..........40.5................T.............1.5...........0.163.....1.37

2014..........40.5...............1.0"..........0.6...........0.413.....1.86

1979..........41.1...............3.5"..........0.6...........1.295.....1.00
1953..........41.3................T.............0.7...........0.575....-0.47

1994..........42.2................T.............1.0...........0.894.....2.02

1982..........42.8...............3.0"..........2.1...........0.967.....1.78

2006..........43.6................0.............1.0...........2.282.....1.34

2015..........50.8................T.............2.2...........1.444.....2.24

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