Chicago Storm Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 max stripe probably tops out <3"As modeled...over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 As modeled...over. weak hedge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 The maps are snowfall....not accumulation...even if 7 inches "falls" from the sky less would likely accumulate as modeled in the city proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 As modeled...over. At this point I'd say a stripe of 3-6" is reasonable. May become an interesting decision for some offices in terms of what headline to go with if it's borderline warning criteria amounts. First event of the season and a period of pretty good rates would be factors to weigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 At this point I'd say a stripe of 3-6" is reasonable. May become an interesting decision for some offices in terms of what headline to go with if it's borderline warning criteria amounts. First event of the season and a period of pretty good rates would be factors to weigh. Didn't think about the headlines....yeah could be a bit tricky if models look very similar after Fridays morning runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I would be impressed with anything over 4-5". People are starting to notice the chance of snow in the forecast, so hopefully this won't be a "catch off your guard" type. The very end of the 18z NAM looks about where the GEM was taking the low - near Lincoln. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 still being generous I don't think so. Certainly on the lower end in the city proper. But as modeled, 2 inches in the city is very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 looks like my first flakes of the season are going to happen i'd favor a dampening trend with the wave and ratios with these surface temps are bound to suck max stripe probably tops out <3" DAB still being generous weak hedge Winter is back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Winter is back He will enjoy the snow when it comes, he is just being a gray cloud on a sunny day right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Based off the 12z Euro verbatim, the 1000-850 mb layer maxT in Chicago proper is about .5 to 1 Celsius from south to north at 06z Saturday and around 0/slightly below to 0.5 Celsius at 12z Saturday. Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Winter is back haha I think 1-2" in the city max Perhaps advisory criteria burbs west of the city and then into MI And wait, we're 3-4 days out and no one has made any first calls?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 GFS update still riding the IL/WI border with the heaviest swath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 haha I think 1-2" in the city max Perhaps advisory criteria burbs west of the city and then into MI And wait, we're 3-4 days out and no one has made any first calls?! I made a call for SEMI. Fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Even with the GFS faster than the Euro, the GFS is 10mb weaker with the surface low when it moves over the MI/IN/OH border where the Euro is down to 1006mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Bullseye still here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 I feel like a south switch to match the Canadian and Euro may happen at 0Z or 12Z. Thoughts? EDIT: Not a last minute switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 We're last minute already? This stuff is still a half week out folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2015 Author Share Posted November 17, 2015 We're last minute already? This stuff is still a half week out folks. lol was thinking the same thing. Last minute would be like 12z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 17, 2015 Share Posted November 17, 2015 Sheared out is a real possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 NAM is showing snow, 0Z seems nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 NAM is showing snow, 0Z seems nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 0z NAM is.. north in Central Wisco with the main swath of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 NAM is north, south is the way to go on this one then. Take the inverse of the 84hr NAM and you'll find reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 NAM is north, south is the way to go on this one then. Take the inverse of the 84hr NAM and you'll find reality.Seems weird for the NAM to be so far north... is it not realizing the blocking up north? Hmm NAM isnt really reliable over 50 hours tho. We'll see the GFS soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 NAM is north, south is the way to go on this one then. Take the inverse of the 84hr NAM and you'll find reality. Haha. Pretty much. Gonna be fun to watch the models real this baby in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 NAM is really out there by itself. No real surprise there. Snow likely in the forecast now for Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Nam always goes north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Yeah....SLP path doesn't really jive on the 00Z NAM...awkward solution it came up with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 That NAM is just way outta wack, quite funnily a few weenies on twitter are betting on the hour 84 NAM verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Anyone have access to the Euro Ensembles? In general the GFS Ensembles have been in line with the OP on the northern side of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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