Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 The NAM hits at 84 hours every once in a while, the problem is you never know when it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Dat 0z GFS tho. 3-5" totals in N IL, so a little less than previous runs (but more reasonable now too) and it is keeping its position through N IL steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 The 0Z GFS just nuked the storm for Michigan, 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Dat 0z GFS tho. 3-5" totals in N IL, so a little less than previous runs (but more reasonable now too) and it is keeping its position through N IL steady. Steady as she goes. Pretty amazing really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Steady as she goes. Pretty amazing really. And then it goes and screws everyone else over. Of course this is still a few days out, so expect changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Steady as she goes. Pretty amazing really. Not steady at all, pretty good shift south, of course you do well in most scenarios, so that's why it appears steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Not steady at all, pretty good shift south, of course you do well in most scenarios, so that's why it appears steady. Yeah it did shift south a bit. Being on the southern edge here, my eyes are sensitive to every shift lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 And then it goes and screws everyone else over. Of course this is still a few days out, so expect changes. Not steady at all, pretty good shift south, of course you do well in most scenarios, so that's why it appears steady. Your right it did shift. My eyes are not that sensitive to the shift because I've been in the middle of it so long. Big difference from the last 0z run when the band was much wider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Will be curious to see if the Euro holds onto the much deeper sfc low solution with the GFS continuing to be very weak (1018mb as it moves into MI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 GEM coming in kind of hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 GGEM unloads...stripe of over 1" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 0z GEM coming in very hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 GEM at 84, still widespread heavy snow falling: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 lol, a bit chilly Sunday morning on the GEM. Widespread zero to -10 for lows in Iowa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 GEM at 84, still widespread heavy snow falling: Mighty sharp cut off to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 The GEM has launched a coup de'tat from the GFS and has joined the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 cmc_snow_acc_michigan_18.pngThat Cook County cut off... 12" in one end and a dusting of snow in the South East corner. Chicago gets scrood over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 The GEM has launched a coup de'tat from the GFS and has joined the ECMWF. In terms of intensity, yes. In terms of positioning of the heaviest accumulations, this was a big shift towards the GFS. At least we're approaching some consensus on the axis of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 In terms of intensity, yes. In terms of positioning of the heaviest accumulations, this was a big shift towards the GFS. At least we're approaching some consensus on the axis of snowfall. Still, the GFS doesn't have this level of snow a'la ECMWF, and the Euro did have the highest level of snows over North. Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 In terms of intensity, yes. In terms of positioning of the heaviest accumulations, this was a big shift towards the GFS. At least we're approaching some consensus on the axis of snowfall. It was a big jump in terms of deepening of the surface low and better look aloft with both those leading to the north shift and higher QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Still, the GFS doesn't have this level of snow a'la ECMWF, and the Euro did have the highest level of snows over North. Illinois. True, look at some of the ensembles for the GFS, especially for 18z. Some are GEM like, some are further north as well. Quite interesting from that standpoint, even one that I noticed gets the low down below 1000mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 In terms of positioning of the heaviest accumulations, this was a big shift towards the GFS.Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 The 00z GGEM is a lot more bullish with snow overall, and especially for areas farther west than the 12z ECMWF was, so I'd argue it hasn't really joined the ECMWF, more like it joined the loony bin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Ride the euro fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Not really. I disagree. Sure, the overall totals have grown significantly. But this was objectively a shift north from the 12z, with an axis of heaviest accumulations most similar to the GFS. I'm on a mobile device so I can't post the image, but the 12z GEM accumulations map is 2 pages back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Disagreements all around: This^ is the 12Z ECMWF run, as you can see, the 12Z Euro had the band of snow in Central Lower Michigan in almost the exact same spot as the 0Z GEM, same for the Chicago area. Differences: Cutoff is way farther south on the ECMWF GEM is more amped in Iowa, although some of the Euro and GFS Ensembles agreed with this. And before someone mentions it: We only get effected by one storm for this subforum, so the "Run Total" function is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Canadian is quite a bit stronger than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Ride the euro fellas GEM pretty close to the EURO in terms of strength. Nice that it has support now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 The 00z GGEM is a lot more bullish with snow overall, and especially for areas farther west than the 12z ECMWF was, so I'd argue it hasn't really joined the ECMWF, more like it joined the loony bin. This yes. But it joined the Euro camp of really deepening the sfc low. The 12z GEM didn't have that while the Euro does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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