Powerball Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Looks like we may continue with the above average temperatures headed into next week, though more so with temps in the upper 50s/60s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 If any of you use GRLevel3 v2, there is a new beta version (2.30) that fixes the downloading recent data problem. Thanks, I run 2 and 3 and got tired of 3 not updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 But it's not winter. This current pattern is very Nina like for this time of year. The warm September also wasn't very strong Nino like. This means nothing about the Winter ahead but I don't know how anyone can say this is a typical strong Nino pattern for early November. I read an article a few days ago that blamed this pattern on El Nino when in reality this isn't Nino like at all for this time of year. As Ive said many times, this Fall has absolutely defied strong Nino climo. Looking back at the 11 strong El Ninos, the signal for early Fall to be colder than normal was unanimous. Later Fall and winter the signal wasnt unanimous. Could mean absolutely nothing for winter, but if its a case of "speeding up" then Im all for it, because that means the turn to cold in winter would be all the sooner. I will post temp averages in the winter thread, no need to clog up the Nov thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Thanks, I run 2 and 3 and got tired of 3 not updating. Yes, thankfully, Gibson Ridge software actually cares if the software is working correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 So apparently, Detroit's has an average November temperature of 56.7*F as of today. Even if we just saw generally average temps the rest of the month (which looks to be very much plausible), there's a good chance this will be at least a top 5 warmest November on record (the current warmest November on record being 2001 with an average temp of 46.5*F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 So apparently, Detroit's has an average November temperature of 56.7*F as of today. Even if we just saw generally average temps the rest of the month (which looks to be very much plausible), there's a good chance this will be at least a top 5 warmest November on record (the current warmest November on record being 2001 with an average temp of 46.5*F). Yup pretty crazy with just these first 4-6 days of warmth, that the rest of the month will be hard pressed to erase the positive anomalies, and that's without anymore warm ups, which another mild airmass is forecast for next week, thought not as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 So apparently, Detroit's has an average November temperature of 56.7*F as of today. Even if we just saw generally average temps the rest of the month (which looks to be very much plausible), there's a good chance this will be at least a top 5 warmest November on record (the current warmest November on record being 2001 with an average temp of 46.5*F). Estimating tomorrows temp (the last day of super warm Indian Summer), Nov through the 5th would have a departure of +13.2F. However, if the 6th-30th came out average, then November would only be about +2. For Detroit to crack the top 5 warmest Novembers, then the 6th-30th would have to average ~+3.5F. The warmest November is actually 1931. Here are the top 5 1.) 47.8F - 1931 2.) 47.6F - 2001 3.) 46.9F - 1902 4.) 46.8F - 1975 5.) 46.6F - 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Is it more, is the stratus deck fading away? Anyone here got any opinions on the fog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 We only managed one day over 70 instead of the expected three, but it was just as pleasant. My neighbor's oak tree began dumping leaves a couple days ago so I was able to collect all I needed for my garden. Last year I froze while bagging up the oak leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Estimating tomorrows temp (the last day of super warm Indian Summer), Nov through the 5th would have a departure of +13.2F. However, if the 6th-30th came out average, then November would only be about +2. For Detroit to crack the top 5 warmest Novembers, then the 6th-30th would have to average ~+3.5F. The warmest November is actually 1931. Here are the top 5 1.) 47.8F - 1931 2.) 47.6F - 2001 3.) 46.9F - 1902 4.) 46.8F - 1975 5.) 46.6F - 2011 I stand corrected. As mentioned in another post, I wasn't able to find the stats for the pre-1959 years before making that post. Assuming we do continue to see above average temps next week (which is looking increasingly likely), that should help to keep the departures fairly high on the positive side as we head into the middle of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Interesting note about the November 70F+ days. If DTW hits 70F+ tomorrow, it will be 4 days this month, which would be the most officially for Detroit on record in November (right now 7 years have had 3 days). Its all about where the official station is. In Nov 1975, DET hit 70F+ 5 times (while DTW only hit it 3 times), but this November DET will only end up hitting 70F+ 3 times. Detroit officially hit 69F+ 5 times in Nov in 1964, 1975, & 1990. DET hit that number a crazy 7 times in 1975. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Interesting note about the November 70F+ days. If DTW hits 70F+ tomorrow, it will be 4 days this month, which would be the most officially for Detroit on record in November (right now 7 years have had 3 days). Its all about where the official station is. In Nov 1975, DET hit 70F+ 5 times (while DTW only hit it 3 times), but this November DET will only end up hitting 70F+ 3 times. Detroit officially hit 69F+ 5 times in Nov in 1964, 1975, & 1990. DET hit that number a crazy 7 times in 1975. Out of curiosity, do you happen to know when they stopped doing in-person observations at DET and started using an ASOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Out of curiosity, do you happen to know when they stopped doing in-person observations at DET and started using an ASOS?I do not. All I know is the official station switch from DET to DTW occurred on April 1, 1966. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 00z GFS has another big storm just after mid month. Nice to see the action even if it's too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Down to 57° this some haze appearing in the air again. Probably will be foggy later on tonight. Point has 69° for tomorrow, but with more clouds than today forecasted. See if it can overachieve or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Sleeping with the windows open in November is a very strange feeling indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 00z GFS has another big storm just after mid month. Nice to see the action even if it's too warm.I mean, I'll take warm and wedges over cold and snow.. Any day of the week. Wonder if we'll get any moisture return with any of the upcoming storms. Wish we just had a large ridge that would be able to build for days, and once the event finally came, we'd have semi-decent lapse rates.Edit: EURO also has a bigger storm. Slower, but big. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Another night of fog and drizzle, however the fog is much less dense than the last few nights. Hopefully will burn off much quicker tomorrow and get us a nice warm day. Got to finish cleaning the yard, and get my winterizer down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 67 degrees already at 9:55AM, incredible. We could make a run at the record of 76 degrees set back in 1975. Going to be a stretch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 67 degrees already at 9:55AM, incredible. We could make a run at the record of 76 degrees set back in 1975. Going to be a stretch though. I see areas of sunshine on satellite in IL that may help you get near that record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 I see areas of sunshine on satellite in IL that may help you get near that record.Yeah it's gonna be close, pockets of sunshine. Up to 69 now.EDIT: 70 degrees as of 11AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Even with full overcast, still already hit 70 at DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 69 at ORD, so I'm going to assume it warms another degree to make it 4 days in a row of 70+. The only other times it has happened in November are 1938, 1953, and 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 69 at ORD, so I'm going to assume it warms another degree to make it 4 days in a row of 70+. The only other times it has happened in November are 1938, 1953, and 1978. Pretty remarkable. Was 64 at my place last night at 11pm. Outside in shorts and a t-shirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Pretty remarkable. Was 64 at my place last night at 11pm. Outside in shorts and a t-shirt Although this 4 day 70 degree streak will be the least impressive of the group. The others had at least one day in the mid 70s, sometimes multiple days, with even upper 70s in 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Although this 4 day 70 degree streak will be the least impressive of the group. The others had at least one day in the mid 70s, sometimes multiple days, with even upper 70s in 1978.The streak in 1978 wasn't exactly a prelude to a warm, snowless winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 The streak in 1978 wasn't exactly a prelude to a warm, snowless winter I mentioned a few days ago....Detroit had had 35 Novembers with 70s readings prior to this year. 21 of the 35 winters ended up being colder than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Razor thin line of storms firing south of the TC metro and expanding north. Lightning detected about 30 miles south of here. Haven't seen lightning in nearly 2 months. Dark as night and 65° currently, while its in the upper 30s near the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Officially 73 so far here at DTW, though I do see a pocket of sunshine to my west so I expect that number to climb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 The streak in 1978 wasn't exactly a prelude to a warm, snowless winter True. 53-54 wasn't bad from a snow perspective, but very mild. 38-39 was warmer than average with snowfall just a tad below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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