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IWXwx

November 2015 Discussion

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Looks like a nice fall system could be ramping up mid week across the Lakes. Definitely aided by the remnants of "Patricia". Breezy, wet, and raw all words I think will become synonymous going forward :D

Not necessarily an OCT topic, but the first few days of NOV look interesting in the region based on tonight's EURO and GFS.

Fantasyland GFS with another strong hurricane nailing the Baha California.

Now the question is.... what will actually verify?

 

Still over a week away, but maybe a new OP will kick us into high gear activity-wise. Yep, interesting is the word at this point, but both models showing another system blowing through around the 1st of the month. I like seeing some agreement from this far out.

 

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I know it is day 9-10 on the Euro but there is a pretty good consensus that there will be 3 troughs coming out between now and then. The third trough at day 10 will have ample moisture with it if the model projections are correct. The 00z Euro has 60+ degree dew points over a huge area, from the Plains all the way north to the Twin Cities and as far east as Ohio with a strong trough pulling out of the Rockies. The GFS though more positively tilted with the trough does have the high dew points streaming north as well.

 

Preceding these troughs the flow will be straight out of the Gulf, which is leading to the over the top PWATs with each system, eventually with the third trough the flow originates in the Caribbean bringing even deeper moisture northward.

 

Bottom line with these strong troughs pressing into a very moist environment, I think this region's lack of severe weather might have a chance to catch up in the next 10 to 15 days, Oddly enough the pattern has a very La Nina look to it with the deep troughs in the west diving in and ejecting out.

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I know it is day 9-10 on the Euro but there is a pretty good consensus that there will be 3 troughs coming out between now and then. The third trough at day 10 will have ample moisture with it if the model projections are correct. The 00z Euro has 60+ degree dew points over a huge area, from the Plains all the way north to the Twin Cities and as far east as Ohio with a strong trough pulling out of the Rockies. The GFS though more positively tilted with the trough does have the high dew points streaming north as well.

Preceding these troughs the flow will be straight out of the Gulf, which is leading to the over the top PWATs with each system, eventually with the third trough the flow originates in the Caribbean bringing even deeper moisture northward.

Bottom line with these strong troughs pressing into a very moist environment, I think this region's lack of severe weather might have a chance to catch up in the next 10 to 15 days, Oddly enough the pattern has a very La Nina look to it with the deep troughs in the west diving in and ejecting out.

Agreed completely. As mentioned above I have been eyeing the 4th through 6th for several runs now, but anywhere between now and the end of the period has piqued my interest. Bring on the high shear/low CAPE forced line of showers with damaging winds already!

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hopefully a sign of good things to come

If we managed a pattern like that into the winter, it would be a wild ride and everyone's seasonal forecast would bust very hard.

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What would bust very hard. Stormy?

Stormy for here instead of the east coast, the upcoming pattern is cutter city. Would remind me a bit of 07-08 which featured pretty much everything all winter. Not saying that would happen just how the forthcoming pattern looks. If we can get the MJO to die in phase 3/4 it would lock in the active pattern for a bit though which is good.

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If we managed a pattern like that into the winter, it would be a wild ride and everyone's seasonal forecast would bust very hard.

Go back and look at November 1982. Looks like the upcoming pattern. Not saying we will continue with the same progression of course.

I do feel like these calls of a dry winter for the Lakes area have a risk of busting. Greatest positive precip anomalies will very likely be along the Gulf coast and possibly up the eastern seaboard, but I think there's going to be a large enough volume of storms that we will run into some of them and make a really dry winter unlikely.

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Go back and look at November 1982. Looks like the upcoming pattern. Not saying we will continue with the same progression of course.

I do feel like these calls of a dry winter for the Lakes area have a risk of busting. Greatest positive precip anomalies will very likely be along the Gulf coast and possibly up the eastern seaboard, but I think there's going to be a large enough volume of storms that we will run into some of them and make a really dry winter unlikely.

The interesting thing Nov 1982 had 5.68" of rain in Detroit so needless to day it was an active pattern that month.

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Stormy for here instead of the east coast, the upcoming pattern is cutter city. Would remind me a bit of 07-08 which featured pretty much everything all winter. Not saying that would happen just how the forthcoming pattern looks. If we can get the MJO to die in phase 3/4 it would lock in the active pattern for a bit though which is good.

Yeah winter 2007-08 was probably the king for overall storminess. Id take it again in a heartbeat.

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If we managed a pattern like that into the winter, it would be a wild ride and everyone's seasonal forecast would bust very hard.

 

You did say, a gradient pattern could set up across the sub forum. That's one way of doing it.

 

It seems like when it is a dry winter in this area, it is because cold overwhelms the pattern (i.e. 2002-2003 - at least back this far west).

 

Hoping for a November that is active.

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The 00z Euro last night had a "run of the mill" 597 dm ridge at h5 over the southeast early to mid next week, and the 12z Euro had a still impressive 594 ridge over/just off the southeast coast with 580+ heights up to northern IL. 12z EPS is very similar, which is notable considering it's an ensemble mean, and with a deep trough digging into the southwest, certainly a warm and active look for the first week of November. With the exception of 11/17/13, a warm and active November will be a big change from the previous 2 Novembers.

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The 00z Euro last night had a "run of the mill" 597 dm ridge at h5 over the southeast early to mid next week, and the 12z Euro had a still impressive 594 ridge over/just off the southeast coast with 580+ heights up to northern IL. 12z EPS is very similar, which is notable considering it's an ensemble mean, and with a deep trough digging into the southwest, certainly a warm and active look for the first week of November. With the exception of 11/17/13, a warm and active November will be a big change from the previous 2 Novembers.

November 2013 was funny...it was cold right before that outbreak on the 17th and then got cold again right after. Perfect example of how you can't let your guard down.

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November 2013 was funny...it was cold right before that outbreak on the 17th and then got cold again right after. Perfect example of how you can't let your guard down.

Weather porn. Anamolously strong system doing a 180 on the weather pattern. It snowed 36-48 hours before tornadoes. One of my all time favorites to have forecasted and experience. (Human impact aside)

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