IllinoisWedges Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 The in between low locations 222 hr 1004mb near MSP 228 hr 999mb just north of La Crosse WI 234 hr 993mb just east of Escanaba MI Maybe we can scoot the low down to NW Illinois.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 At 00z Wed the 850mb temp in Chicago is 17C, which is way off the charts for normal. Mixing must be terrible though because it has a max temp of only 69 for Tuesday. Do you have access to ECMWF forecast soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Do you have access to ECMWF forecast soundings? Nah, unless I haven't found it on wxbell yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Do you have access to ECMWF forecast soundings? AccuPro has some poor man's Euro forecast soundings. No BUFKIT or even twisterdata by any means, but it does give you the vertical profile and some indices IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 60 degree DPs up to Green Bay next Thursday on the 18z GFS... Nothing like pooling DPs in November... Looks like at least a few days warmth to start the month...timing and strength of any surface reflections seems to be a bit in flux at the moment understandably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Folks, I have found the cold. cfsUS_850_temp_786.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Pay sites mostly. You can get smaller increments at Wunderground but I'm not sure it goes out to 240 hours there. That's true. The Wunderground plots of the Euro can be very helpful. You can use the slider bar to select the time in 6 hour or 3 hour increments. The limit is 180 hours. I have been noticing the NAO has been somewhat positive this October, with fairly strong negative anomalies in western Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Eurowx has the ECMWF, if you need to take a peak do the trial, other than that its kind of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 super consistent modeling for this large eastern ridge this would be cool too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 If anything remotely like this verifies, then we are headed for the warmest strong Nino Fall (at least back to the 1890s). Even a modestly warmer than average November would probably be enough to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 If anything remotely like this verifies, then we are headed for the warmest strong Nino Fall (at least back to the 1890s). Even a modestly warmer than average November would probably be enough to do it. CFSv2.NaT2m.20151029.201511.gif Yup. October should finish with around a +1 positive anomaly, and September finished with +3.7 I believe. That means we will need November to finish at -4.7 just to be near normal. Heck the warmth forecasted for next week, is almost enough to seal Novembers fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 november looks like a lock for above normal temps across much of the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Yup. October should finish with around a +1 positive anomaly, and September finished with +3.7 I believe. That means we will need November to finish at -4.7 just to be near normal. Heck the warmth forecasted for next week, is almost enough to seal Novembers fate. Yeah I agree...that first 7-10 days is probably enough to lock it up especially with a lack of any persistent strong cold signal right now for later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 That time alek said to just ride super Nino status and don't over complicate things;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 That time alek said to just ride super Nino status and don't over complicate things;) The US temperature pattern definitely hasn't been what you'd expect based on past history. Obviously you have to look at ENSO, especially when it's this strong, but there's been a curveball thrown this Fall. One of the things I'm doing with my winter outlook is look at past Falls with similar temperature patterns, regardless of ENSO state, and I think found something worthwhile in regards to winter. Hope to share it soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 The US temperature pattern definitely hasn't been what you'd expect based on past history. Obviously you have to look at ENSO, especially when it's this strong, but there's been a curveball thrown this Fall. One of the things I'm doing with my winter outlook is look at past Falls with similar temperature patterns, regardless of ENSO state, and I think found something worthwhile in regards to winter. Hope to share it soon. Looking forward to your analysis Hoosier. IMO this fall pattern is going to show its poker face for the winter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Yeah, it looks like October was the "cool" month for the fall. What was the NAO in 82 and 97? Sorta help lead to the blehish this month and that lead toward underperformance. I'm pretty sure a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 I'm pretty sure a -NAO. Yeah, October 1982 and October 1997 were negative NAO. November 1982 turned positive, while November 1997 was negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Did some checking and found that Chicago hasn't had a November high of 70 since 2012 and the last time there were multiple days of 70s was November 2009. I'd say that's in serious jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Did some checking and found that Chicago hasn't had a November high of 70 since 2012 and the last time there were multiple days of 70s was November 2009. I'd say that's in serious jeopardy. Before getting totally onboard with the torch train, another thing to keep an eye on which could mute the temperature response will be the moisture advection in the 850-925mb region. Given the strong inversion that will be in place along with the deep southerly flow, we could have some stratocumulus issues that will limit insolation, especially once we get into Wednesday and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I'ma just throw this here while y'all talk about temps. If only this was 6 hours earlier. *Obviously this is just banter, but I had to put it out there to give people hope, like myself.* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Before getting totally onboard with the torch train, another thing to keep an eye on which could mute the temperature response will be the moisture advection in the 850-925mb region. Given the strong inversion that will be in place along with the deep southerly flow, we could have some stratocumulus issues that will limit insolation, especially once we get into Wednesday and beyond. That is a concern. The airmass looks warm enough though that even clouds/poor mixing might not be enough to prevent 70 in Chicago, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 That is a concern. The airmass looks warm enough though that even clouds/poor mixing might not be enough to prevent 70 in Chicago, but we'll see. I agree, especially with temps at 850 of 15 17 16c on consecutive days per the 12z euro. I'd be floored if that isn't 3 days of at least 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 I wonder if this pattern with its southeast ridges, el nino jacked STJ and deep longwave troughs would be prone to a November 1913 Freshwater fury type of system shot in the dark? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 this pattern rules, have such good feelings about november Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 If we would get a blizzard in Early November, I might just cry tears of joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 06Z GFS shows this, looked like it had a small snow system at 384 hours, and was just moving in one the last frame. http://i.imgur.com/bEo47ill.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nokywx Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Chicago has only hit 80 in November one time (11/1/1950), so not very good odds. Early Nov. 1950 was quite toasty. We all know what happened towards the end of that month...I would take a repeat, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Still a ways out...but I think Chicago's record high is in jeopardy on Wed. 11/4 (74 in 1978). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 30, 2015 Share Posted October 30, 2015 Still a ways out...but I think Chicago's record high is in jeopardy on Wed. 11/4 (74 in 1978). absolutely in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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