BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Bumble go look at that gfs run. Pure model porn. Meandering lake effect bands for days and days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Blizzard of 66 snow map http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/snow/nesis/19660129-19660131-5.93.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Less than 1" here today, so far. Only very light snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Man i know it's out there but if the 12z OP GFS run comes to fruition both BUF & ART would cash in nicely with that WSW flow for days! :snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Bumble go look at that gfs run. Pure model porn. Meandering lake effect bands for days and days. Ahhh good times ahead my friend! -AO +PNA -NAO -EPO and the MJO in phase 7-8. omggggggggggggggggggggggg!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 After a dull rest of the week and unfortunately some melting/rain this weekend, things look really interesting starting next Monday. I hope models trends hold of showing arctic air over the GL's with cyclonic flow. A long way to go, but a nice signal there for lake effect. Re: the Blizzard of 66...my in-laws gave me a new book on that for Christmas. It's mostly personal accounts, but a very interesting read. My mother-in-law is actually quoted in the book - her parents were stranded in Oswego for a week after dropping her off at the college (they made it right as the storm was hitting). Thing about that storm that is really impressive to me was the extreme snow amounts across so much of Upstate NY. Oswego was obviously ground zero (100+ inches!), but everywhere from BUF east to the 'Dacks and even down across the southern tier seem to have gotten well over a foot from that storm. Absolute perfect track for both synoptic and lake effect/enhanced snow for W/CNY. I was 11 and living in Little Falls in the Mohawk Valley during the Blizzard of '66. It was one of those storms that really stoked my interest in meteorology. Schools were closed for a week. One of the characteristics of the storm was high winds that persisted for days. That made clearing rural roads almost impossible as they drifted back in immediately after being plowed. I believe it was one of the first times in New York that snowmobiles were needed to provide food and fuel to people stranded in the countryside. Buffalo Bumble, what is the name of that book? I might be interested in getting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Bumble go look at that gfs run. Pure model porn. Meandering lake effect bands for days and days. That's X-rated stuff. Lock it in! Meanwhile, we've had on and off squalls in Lancaster all day. Temp down to 10 degrees. Classic mid-winter day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I was 11 and living in Little Falls in the Mohawk Valley during the Blizzard of '66. It was one of those storms that really stoked my interest in meteorology. Schools were closed for a week. One of the characteristics of the storm was high winds that persisted for days. That made clearing rural roads almost impossible as they drifted back in immediately after being plowed. I believe it was one of the first times in New York that snowmobiles were needed to provide food and fuel to people stranded in the countryside. Buffalo Bumble, what is the name of that book? I might be interested in getting it. "Voices in the Storm." http://oswegocountytoday.com/voices-in-the-storm-recounts-challenges-struggles-on-50th-anniversary-of-blizzard-of-66/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Ahhh good times ahead my friend! -AO +PNA -NAO -EPO and the MJO in phase 7-8. omggggggggggggggggggggggg!! It'll certainly be interesting to see how/if all of the favorable teleconnections line up for a cold & snowy pattern actually produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I know it happens, but its cool to see a little extra enhancement off the finger lakes right now. It's pretty much the only game in town at the moment: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=bgm&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Took this picture last night , finally feels like a winters day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Man i know it's out there but if the 12z OP GFS run comes to fruition both BUF & ART would cash in nicely with that WSW flow for days! :snowing: Someone is going to get slammed. It's not if but when and where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2016 Author Share Posted January 4, 2016 Go look at Buffalos latest forecast discussion! Pretty much what we talked about today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Go look at Buffalos latest forecast discussion! Pretty much what we talked about today. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN BEGINNING MONDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH A GOODPORTION OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WELL SUITED FOR A POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT LAKE RESPONSE. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP FROM AROUND BETWEEN -10C TO -20C DEPENDING ON THE MODEL...DAY...AND FORECAST SHORTWAVE TROUGHS NEXT WEEK WITH A WESTERLY OR SW FLOW...AGAIN DEPENDENT ON DAY AND MODEL. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OR LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US IS SIMILAR THE OVERALL PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WINTERS...WITH HISTORICAL RESEARCH SHOWING THAT THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-LIVED LAKE EFFECT EVENTS...ASSUMING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE DO NOT MEANDER TOO MUCH. THIS NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED HERE SINCE AT LEAST SATURDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WADE THROUGH THE VARYING FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEKEND PRIOR TO THE COOL DOWN...BUT AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...THIS IS A CLEAR SIGNAL...SO CONFIDENCE FOR A LAKE EFFECT EVENT...POSSIBLY A PROLONGED ONE...LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY TOWARD LOCATION THIS FAR OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 I'm ready for another chase... Bring it on!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 May try to get to Oswego a couple days early if I can. Gonna be busy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Where is that ocean effect guy? The cape and southeast mass are getting clipped pretty good right now. It's a nice setup, he should be all jacked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Of course I'm chasing end of January and not mid January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Where is that ocean effect guy? The cape and southeast mass are getting clipped pretty good right now. It's a nice setup, he should be all jacked up. image.jpg He's near the outside of the "elbow" of the cape, not in the good part of that band - seems to be getting the shaft, after tracking this event for a week. As we know here in the eastern lakes, them's the breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 BUF-ART special on the 0z GFS for next week. Lock it in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 BUF-ART special on the 0z GFS for next week. Lock it in! Still looks great. Some awesome long range analogs as well. Be fun to track for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Still looks great. Some awesome long range analogs as well. Be fun to track for the next week. Yea it looks good, what's the top analog that's coming up? Dec'01? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 THE PATTERN BECOMES FAR MORE INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...WITH A STRONG WEST COAST RIDGE ALLOWING AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO CARVE OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THE MEAN PATTERN FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A DEEP TROUGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY...WITH NUMEROUS HIGH AMPLITUDE CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. PAST CLIMATOLOGY RESEARCH AND EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN CAN BE VERY ACTIVE FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN OUR REGION...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE WITH THIS PATTERN AS WELL. DEEP COLD AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG AND DEEP LAKE RESPONSE AT TIMES...WITH THE NUMEROUS MID LEVEL WAVES PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE. THESE WAVES WILL ALSO BRING CHANGES TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DIRECTION... SUGGESTING MIGRATING BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. OBVIOUSLY AT THIS TIME RANGE THE DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CERTAINLY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING... SIGNIFICANT...HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 Yea it looks good, what's the top analog that's coming up? Dec'01? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php Just an awesome forecast discussion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Gonna be a long week leading up to this one... Exciting to see all the hype already building with some pretty solid certainty. Would love a repeat of the 2001 storm so I'm hoping for the migrating bands. Those folks in the north towns need a good storm. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php Just an awesome forecast discussion... take a look at the canadian ensemble analogs. lol wow. 2001, blizzard of 85, blizzard of 77, and the blizzard of 66 all there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 take a look at the canadian ensemble analogs. lol wow. 2001, blizzard of 85, blizzard of 77, and the blizzard of 66 all there. Probably the best possible analogs I've seen. Just incredible. Do you think there will be any wind with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 take a look at the canadian ensemble analogs. lol wow. 2001, blizzard of 85, blizzard of 77, and the blizzard of 66 all there. Wow at this rate BUF might issue LES watches by Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 If it keeps holding such high impact potential I wonder how the NWS will put the public information statements out after they were criticized for how they handled the November storm... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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